CRGAQS Revised CAMx Results Presentation to the Gorge

CRGAQS: Revised CAMx Results Presentation to the Gorge Study Technical Team By ENVIRON International Corporation December 6, 2006 V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt

Today’s Presentation • Recap modeling performance issues • Describe latest CAMx simulations – Model and emission changes • Performance for PM and light • V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt scattering Next Steps

Modeling Issues • Episodes – August 10 -22, 2004 – November 4 -18, 2004 • Identified issues from sensitivity runs – Primary fine/coarse PM over predicted in both episodes • Dominating modeled light scattering • Windblown dust vs. fires? • Nope: construction + agricultural fugitive dust V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt

Modeling Issues – OC over predicted in both episodes • SOA is dominant in Aug (mainly biogenic) • POA (+EC) is dominant in Nov near Portland (wood smoke) – Why is modeled scattering nearly zero in mid-November in the Mt Zion area? • Easterly winds accelerate through Gorge and send Portland emissions offshore V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt

Modeling Issues – Why is modeled scattering so low at the eastern sites in November? • No speciated data at Gorge study sites • IMPROVE data on Nov 11 indicates dominance of NO 3 and OC – OC, EC, and SO 4 performance is good in east – NO 3 is under predicted in east • We rely on modeled RH to generate the nitrate (complex process) • We use observed RH to translate nitrate mass to nitrate scattering (simple process) V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt

Revised Model Configuration • SOA – Historically under predicted by CMAQ and CAMx in the western U. S. (e. g. , WRAP) • Attributed to the biogenic component – We employed a chemical improvement in CAMx for biogenic SOA • Same as put into CMAQ for the RPOs • Terpene 2 -product mechanism: higher yields, higher volatility • Should reduce biogenic SOA V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt

Revised Model Configuration • Fugitive dust – 2 SMOKE problems: • WRAP speciation profiles caused a doublecounting of OR/WA dust estimates – This also impacted OR/WA woodsmoke emissions • No county-level “canopy escape factor” was applied (as developed and applied in WRAP) – Both have been fixed and SMOKE re-run • Significant coarse PM reductions – Note: WRAP has chosen to completely disregard primary coarse PM predictions V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt

Performance Evaluation V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt

August Performance Evaluation Gorge Site Bscat East Portland V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt

August Performance Evaluation Wishram Bonneville Mt. Zion V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt

August Performance Statistics V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt

August Performance Evaluation V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt

August Performance Evaluation V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt

Gorge Study vs. IMPROVE At Mt. Zion Organic and Elemental Carbon V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt

Gorge Study vs. IMPROVE At Mt. Zion Sulfate and Nitrate V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt

August Summary • Overall good performance for – Total PM 2. 5 – Light scattering • Low SO 4/NH 4 and primary fine – Questionable Gorge measurements – NO 3 insufficient to worry about • High carbon – SOA modification ineffective – What is underlying cause? • Model over predicts diurnal variation V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt

November Performance Evaluation Gorge Site Bscat Portland Eastern Gorge V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt

November Performance Evaluation Mt. Zion Bonneville Mt. Zion V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt

November Performance Statistics V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt

November Performance Evaluation V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt

November Performance Evaluation V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt

November Summary • Generally high total PM 2. 5 – Dominated by carbon and primary fine • Bifurcated performance for light scattering – Over predicted in Portland area: high carbon and primary fine – Under predicted in eastern Gorge: low SO 4/NO 3/NH 4 • Need more humidity/clouds: – Generate more SO 4 – Condense more NO 3 V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt

Next Steps • Recommendations: – Focus on August episode • • 2018 Case PSAT “What-if” scenarios Use model trends in relative sense to scale IMPROVE observations – Relegate November episode • Revisit with possible follow-on funding? V: corporatemarketingoverview. ppt