Creating Your Preferred Future The Next Steps ACEC

Creating Your Preferred Future: The Next Steps ACEC 2011 Spring Conference Washington, DC Steven J. Isaacs, PE Division Manager FMI Corporation A/E Consulting Services Division © 2011 FMI Corporation 1

Agenda Uncertainty Process to deal with uncertainty • • • © 2011 FMI Corporation Scenarios Key Drivers Current Direction and Impacts How things are playing out What it means for creating preferred futures 2

Uncertainty © 2011 FMI Corporation 3

What’s going on? © 2011 FMI Corporation 4

What do we do? © 2011 FMI Corporation 5

Initiate a new kind of planning © 2011 FMI Corporation 6

What matters to you? © 2011 FMI Corporation 7

Why does scenario planning work? © 2011 FMI Corporation 8

Examples of four AEC future scenarios © 2011 FMI Corporation 9

Key Drivers from AEC Futures Study Global Drivers • Degraded infrastructure worldwide • Competition for resources Social Drivers • Aging population and firm leadership • Mobile, independent workforce Economic Drivers • U. S. loses economic dominance to China • Volatile energy prices • Global cooperation to smooth economic fluctuations © 2011 FMI Corporation 10

Key Drivers from AEC Futures Study (continued) Technology Drivers • Advances in design and construction methods • Advances in operations and life cycle • Technology: faster cheaper better more Political Drivers • Increased regulation of built and natural environments • Government control over resources • Sudden turmoil in the Middle East Environmental Drivers • Worldwide sustainability movement • Tight regulation of natural environment © 2011 FMI Corporation 11

MACRO trends produce micro trends How macro trends impact your firm locally § Turmoil in Middle East increased price of project materials energy cost impacts on clients § Advances in technology increased price of project materials energy cost impacts on clients § Momentum of green building increased price of project materials energy cost impacts on clients © 2011 FMI Corporation 12

Industry Trend Progress: faster movement • Price pressures and competition, including from non-U. S. firms • PPP • Merger & acquisition – industry consolidation • Pressure on small- and medium-sized firms • Green building • War for talent is flaring up again © 2011 FMI Corporation 13

Industry Trends Progress: s-l-o-w-e-r movement • Recession has not fully played out • Government funding • States turning federal funding away • Enormous need for infrastructure goes unfunded. © 2011 FMI Corporation 14

Setting Goals • Come out of process with a new kind of firm • Come out with a new set of leaders who understand strategic thinking • Come out with both a long-term view and a short term action plan • Come out with a way to grow, or not to grow © 2011 FMI Corporation 15

Caveats • Groupthink • Treating plan as an abstract idea lacking passion • Exciting work -- boring work means you’re on wrong track • Ignoring return on investment • Don’t just grab numbers without understanding which matter © 2011 FMI Corporation 16

What should be considered? © 2011 FMI Corporation 17

A Collaborative Process © 2011 FMI Corporation 18

Increasing Knowledge © 2011 FMI Corporation 19

Tangible planning effort © 2011 FMI Corporation 20

What should the planning process be open to? © 2011 FMI Corporation 21

What is the result? © 2011 FMI Corporation 22

How to get the AEC Futures Report To order a copy of the complete AEC Futures Report, including full descriptions of the four future scenarios, visit the FMI website: http: //www. fminet. com/future-of-the-aec-industry. html © 2011 FMI Corporation 23

Speaker Steven J. Isaacs, PE – – © 2011 FMI Corporation Division Manager A/E Consulting Services Division Phone: 925 -934 -7200 E: sisaacs@fminet. com 24

About FMI Visit us at www. fminet. com Knowledge • Expertise • Relationships Founded in 1953 by Dr. Emol A. Fails, FMI provides management consulting and investment banking for the worldwide engineering, architecture and construction industry. FMI delivers innovative, customized solutions to contractors; construction materials producers; manufacturers and suppliers of building materials and construction equipment; facility owners, managers and developers; engineers and architects; surety companies; and industry trade associations. FMI’s experienced professionals assist businesses with strategic planning, leader and organizational development, business development, research, mergers and acquisitions, peer groups, private equity placement, project execution and training. © 2011 FMI Corporation 25