Creating the ToBe Architecture A Separate Architecture Creative

Creating the To-Be Architecture A Separate Architecture Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

Introduction • Part of the foundation of Enterprise Architecture is the notion of three major pieces: – A current architecture – A future architecture – The management plan that moves the enterprise from as-is to to-be • We have already considered the current or as-is architecture – Now the future architecture – For this we look into the crystal ball Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

A Hard Problem • Real problem is there is no crystal ball • Meteorologists get paid to predict the weather – They are often close, but seldom dead-on accurate – They are supported by extensive observational and predictive computer systems, which cost millions – Weather is a very complicated physical system – Yet, it is a system subject to well known laws of physics Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

A Harder Problem • If weather is hard problem, how much more so is what the business environment will be like in five years? • The laws of group psychology are not very predictive – Nothing near as mathematically precise as physics • No way to predict what technology innovations will influence the enterprise’s direction Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

It Gets Worse • In dealing with the future, there an infinite number of potential futures – This is an impossibility, so we must limit • Most of these potential futures are of very low likelihood – These we try not to consider • If a potential future has no proper reaction we may also dismiss • We focus on a small number of likely possibilities Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

Where is the change? • Where can the changes come from? – External factors – Internal initiatives • We must weigh the likelihood of each external change • Initiatives only need consideration if they appear to have sufficient executive backing to be implemented – EA should not usually be taking sides at this level Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

Process • Looking for changes that will impact enterprise • Typically, start with a brainstorming session of EA team • Invite suggestions from depth and breadth of enterprise – Include suppliers and customers – The more diverse the better • Sift the suggestions based on likelihood and ability to mitigate • Develop CONOPS scenarios Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

CONOPS • CONcept of OPeration – Also CONOPs and Con. Ops • CONOPS is a document that describes how a system would work – Often from the user’s perspective • Frequently used to describe a proposed system • Seems to have originated in Do. D • Has an IEEE standard Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

CONOPS Should Contain • Goals and objectives of the system • Strategies, tactics, policies, and constraints affecting the system • Activities and interactions among participants and stakeholders • Clear statement of responsibilities and how authorities are delegated • Specific operational processes for implementing the system • Processes for initiating, developing, maintaining, and retiring the system Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

Scenarios • In the CONOPS plan there should be various scenarios • At its simplest it is a story of “what if” – If X happens, we will do Y • Describes a future possibility – Not a definite prediction • Attempts to show what the future might hold and how the enterprise will handle it Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

Scenarios • Several things need to go into a CONOPS scenario • Start with the SWOT – Focus on threats and opportunities • Develop a scenario – Tells a story of how the enterprise would function in the near future • Develop multiple versions – Short for quick sharing – Long for giving guidance for planning Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

Why Scenarios I? • Anticipate future threats and opportunities – Project multiple futures based on optimistic and pessimistic projections of past events • Develops strategic thinking and learning – Facilitate the art of strategic conversation • Opens conversations in enterprise strategy • Challenge or dispel assumptions about the official future Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

Why Scenarios II? • Inspire leadership for new initiatives or direction • Create options for decision making • Create a shared vision of the future to influence organizational and individual thinking • Open communications channels that transcends organizational boundaries, time and space Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

Scenario Hints I • Involve both senior leadership and frontline staff • Evaluate ideas on their merits not their source – Use group techniques or groupware to promote creativity and non-linear thinking – How does culture affect this? • Use communities of practice that span multiple functions to create scenarios Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

Hints II • Scenarios should address specific business value propositions – Such as knowledge re-use, innovation, customer intimacy – Scenarios should be outcome oriented. • Try to tie together human, process, and technology dimensions to show the potential future state – Relate the initiative to complementary organizational initiatives • Keep scenarios short – One to two pages maximum Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

Hints III • Widely broadcast the scenarios – Allow employees, strategic partners and stakeholders a voice • Give credit to those who develop scenarios • Scenario development is the start of a continuous process – Must be frequently revisited Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

Future EA • There a limited number of scenarios that may be considered – If too many they will be ignored – Three at minimum: offensive, status quo, defensive • The next step is to update artifacts • There needs to be a clear separation between current and future – An update to the strategic plan might be considered insubordination – We also do not want people to plan using a future that will not exist Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

Version Control • Once the team has established the current EA, it spends much of its time on the future • The eventuality that needs to be avoided is that the either EA is updated frequently • Updates should come out no more often than twice a year – Use only regular and announced times – Update the entire scenario and its consequences all at once Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

Exercise • What are the opportunities and threats for VCSU? Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

Engineering • We often use engineering principles when discussing EA – EA is enterprise engineering • However, engineering a building or a computer is far different than an enterprise – These follow laws of physics • An enterprise is a community – Communities operate by different laws than physics – They self-organize Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

Differences • This self-organization may be done in a variety of ways – This is not the result of design • Internal Competition – Two teams with different organizations. One wins and may end up more influential. Yet it is not the team’s organization that made the difference • Mutation – A new hire changes the way things are done. A new technology may do this as well Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

More Differences • Merger/acquisition/divestiture – Seldom predicted by a future architecture • Oscillation – Sometimes we follow the trends, which often oscillate. Eg: centralization to distributed and back • Principle-driven – The mission and vision, if distributed, can change how people reshape their local areas in ways difficult to predict • There are others as well Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

Format • The future architecture must be completely separate from the current – Although in the same repository • If certain aspects of the enterprise will not be affected by the potential changes they only need references back to the current • Initiatives and potential changes need somewhat different handling Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

Differences • Scenario based predictions should make clear that these are guesses – What is documented is EA’s best estimate as to what the enterprise will be in the future • Initiatives are rather more certain of coming into being – Although even a well backed initiative can be derailed • Next we survey what needs updating Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

Goals and Initiatives • The future architecture should contain the products of the prediction • CONOPS scenarios and diagrams • Updates to – Strategic plan – SWOT – Balanced Scorecard Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

The Rest of the Levels • These should include the proposed modification to the documents normally at these levels • Departmental planning should be be reflected in all the documents where appropriate Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.

Finally • The future architecture is the best guess at what things will look like in the near future • This cannot be just the product of the EA team – It must have input from both the highest and lowest levels • The distinction of current from future should also be clear Creative Commons License – Curt Hill.