CPT Experiments GROUP 2 Goodness Index CCA mode

CPT Experiments GROUP 2

Goodness Index � CCA mode: � X modes: � Y modes: � Goodness 3 10 4 Index: -0. 047

Pearson correlation skill map Map shows a low correlation skill across the rainfall stations.

CCA mode 1 Cool Pacific – Warm Atlantic Pattern corresponding to above normal rainfall over Eastern Caribbean Canonical correlation: 0. 8288

CCA mode 2 Cool Equatorial Pacific (La Nina) – Warm Equatorial Atlantic corresponding to above normal rainfall over Eastern Caribbean Rainfall pattern not coherent over Eastern Caribbean Canonical correlation: 0. 6430

Roc curves Station 14 showing low ROC skill

Roc curves Station 17 showing high ROC skill

Roc Map

CPT Experiment # 2 GROUP 2

Goodness Index � CCA mode: � X modes: � Y modes: � Goodness 4 5 5 Index: 0. 032

Pearson correlation skill map Map shows reasonable skill across the Eastern Caribbean rainfall stations.

CCA mode 1 Cool Pacific – Cool Atlantic Pattern corresponding to below normal rainfall over Eastern Caribbean Timeseries shows long term trend Canonical correlation: 0. 8030

CCA mode 2 Cool Equatorial Pacific (La Nina) –Cool Equatorial Atlantic corresponding to above normal rainfall over Caribbean Timeseries shows interannual variability Canonical correlation: 0. 7221

Roc curves Station 26 (Grenada) showing low ROC skill

Roc curves Station 15 (Cayman) showing high ROC skill

Roc Map suggests good skill in predicting above normal rainfall and below normal rainfall over Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados and Cayman. Poor skill is evident over Jamaica, Surinaman and Grenada.

Probability Forecast There is a tendency towards normal to below normal rainfall over Eastern Caribbean.