CPT 17 new features and functionality Simon Mason

CPT 17 – new features and functionality Simon Mason simon@iri. columbia. edu Cari. COF 2020 Wet Season – Seasonal Forecast Workshop Virtual Meeting, 25 May 2020

CPT 17 New features • New regression models for sub-seasonal and weather-withinseason forecasts: – Logistic regression: yes/no outcomes • S 2 S: Risk of an extreme weather event • Seasonal: Risk of an extreme season – Binomial regression: counts with upper and lower limits • S 2 S: Number of days above 35 °C • Seasonal: Number of wet days 2 Seasonal Forecast Workshop 2020 May 25

CPT 17 • New regression models (continued): – Poisson regression: counts with no upper limit • S 2 S: Number of cooling-degree days • Seasonal: Number of tropical storms – Gamma regression: data with a positive skewness • S 2 S: Rainfall total • Seasonal: Rainfall total • New zero-bounding: increased probabilities on below-normal when the forecast signal is for strong negative anomalies 3 Seasonal Forecast Workshop 2020 May 25

CPT 16. 5 Data download • GPCC (to version 2018) • Copernicus C 3 S models • Replaced CMC 1 -Can. CM 3 and CMC 2 -Can. CM 4 downloads with Can. CM 4 i and Can. SIPSv 2. • Replaced NASA GMAO downloads with NASA GEOSS 2 S. You can download these datasets and use them in older versions of CPT. 4 Seasonal Forecast Workshop 2020 May 25

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