Countryspecific study of cadmium pollution in Poland data

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Country-specific study of cadmium pollution in Poland: data collection, pilot results and future work

Country-specific study of cadmium pollution in Poland: data collection, pilot results and future work Anna Degorska (IEP-NRI) Ilia Ilyin, Oleg Travnikov, Olga Rozovskaya (EMEP/MSC-E)

Country-scale pollution assessment for Poland Outline § Collection of input data - Emissions -

Country-scale pollution assessment for Poland Outline § Collection of input data - Emissions - Monitoring § Modelling - Regional modelling on old (50 x 50 km 2) and new (0. 4° x 0. 4°) grid - Country-scale modelling with finer (0. 1° x 0. 1°) spatial resolution § Joint analysis of the results § Preparation of country-specific information (S-R matrices for voevodships, contribution of source categories, LPS , etc…) § Final report 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

Country-scale pollution assessment for Poland Outline § Collection of input data - Emissions -

Country-scale pollution assessment for Poland Outline § Collection of input data - Emissions - Monitoring § Modelling - Regional modelling on old (50 x 50 km 2) and new (0. 4° x 0. 4°) grid - Country-scale modelling with finer (0. 1° x 0. 1°) spatial resolution § Joint analysis of the results § Preparation of country-specific information (S-R matrices for voevodships, contribution of source categories, LPS , etc…) § Final report 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

Input data provided by national experts Cd emission 2014 üSpatial distribution üEmission from sectors

Input data provided by national experts Cd emission 2014 üSpatial distribution üEmission from sectors üLarge point sources üEmission of PM 10 – detailed data for national modelling purposes üCadmium emission in Poland largest in EU 28 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

Input data provided by national experts Cd in air monitoring stations MONITORING STATIONS ü

Input data provided by national experts Cd in air monitoring stations MONITORING STATIONS ü 84 urban background ü 3 regional (1 EMEP) ü 2 suburban Directive 2004/107/EC of the European Parliament and the Council of 15 December 2004 relating to arsenic, cadmium, mercury, nickel and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in ambient air 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

PL 30 0 A PL 008 0 A PL 190 0 A PL 528

PL 30 0 A PL 008 0 A PL 190 0 A PL 528 0 A PL 317 0 A PL 283 0 A PL 541 0 A PL 194 0 A PL 571 0 A PL 294 0 A PL 544 0 A PL 502 0 A PL 494 0 A PL 201 0 A PL 148 0 A PL 542 0 A PL 550 0 A PL 100 0 A PL 085 0 A PL 508 0 A PL 537 0 A PL 137 0 A PL 213 0 A PL 548 0 A PL 126 0 A PL 252 0 A PL 559 0 A PL 295 0 A PL 572 0 A PL 538 0 A PL 214 0 A PL 545 0 A PL 516 0 A PL 071 0 A PL 066 0 A PL 581 0 A PL 182 0 A PL 557 0 A PL 535 05 A 00 A 05 PL [ng/m 3] 3. 0 2. 0 Input data provided by national experts Cd in air 2. 5 Cadmium concentration in air (PM 10) Urban background stations 1. 5 1. 0 0. 5 0. 0 Annual average: 0, 1 -2, 7 ng/m 3 EU limit value: 5 ng/m 3 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

Input data provided by national experts Cd in precipitation monitoring stations MONITORING STATIONS ü

Input data provided by national experts Cd in precipitation monitoring stations MONITORING STATIONS ü 25 stations ü 3 regional stations under 2004/107/EC Directive ü 2 EMEP stations ü 162 precipitation stations • concentration in precipitation • deposition 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

rc ie W sk Le o e G h da ńs Po k Zi

rc ie W sk Le o e G h da ńs Po k Zi zn el on ań a G ór Le a gn ic Su a le jó w R ac ib ór Śn z ie ż N ow ka y Sa Są nd cz om ie rz Ka lis W z ar sz aw a Bi ał ys t W ok ło da w Su a Św wa łk in i o G or ujśc zó ie w W lk p C ho. jn ic e To ru ń Łe ba O ls zt yn y ro w Ka sp ic to w Ka [µg/dm 3] Le s h ie rc W Ka ko to w ic Po e zn a Su ń le jó Śn w ie ż N ow ka y Zi Są el on cz a G ór G a da ńs k R ac ib ór Le z Sa gni nd ca om ie rz W ło d W awa ar sz aw a Ka Św li in sz ou jś ci Su e w ał k Bi ał i G y or st zó ok w W lk p C ho. jn ic e O ls zt yn To ru ń Łe ba w y Ka sp ro [kg/ha] Input data provided by national experts Cd deposition 0. 006 0. 005 0. 004 Cd deposition 0. 003 0. 002 0. 001 0 0. 4 0. 3 Cd concentration 0. 2 0. 1 0. 0 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

Country-scale pollution assessment for Poland Outline § Collection of input data - Emissions -

Country-scale pollution assessment for Poland Outline § Collection of input data - Emissions - Monitoring § Modelling - Regional modelling on old (50 x 50 km 2) and new (0. 4° x 0. 4°) grid - Country-scale modelling with finer (0. 1° x 0. 1°) spatial resolution § Joint analysis of the results § Preparation of country-specific information (S-R matrices for voevodships, contribution of source categories, LPS , etc…) § Final report 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

Atmospheric modelling (Cd, 2014) Transition from old to new grid in the EMEP region

Atmospheric modelling (Cd, 2014) Transition from old to new grid in the EMEP region 50 x 50 km 2 0. 4°x 0. 4° Statistical indicators Bias, % Rcorr Old grid New grid 2 0. 52 -5 0. 56 Ø Air concentrations in old and new grids are similar in Europe Ø Differences in Africa and Asia are caused by changes in re-suspension Ø Harmonized land-cover data within CLRTAP is needed 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

Country-scale modelling for Poland § Nesting approach used § Boundary concentrations to selected domain

Country-scale modelling for Poland § Nesting approach used § Boundary concentrations to selected domain from 0. 4°x 0. 4° grid Calculated Cd concentrations in air EMEP domain 0. 4° x 0. 4° Selected domain 0. 1° x 0. 1° EMEP stations 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017 National (regional) stations National (suburban) stations

Modelled vs. observed concentrations in air (EMEP and national regional/suburban stations ) EMEP stations

Modelled vs. observed concentrations in air (EMEP and national regional/suburban stations ) EMEP stations National stations Statistical indicators Bias, % Rcorr 0. 4° x 0. 4° -44 0. 8 0. 1° x 0. 1° -23 0. 9 Ø In case of finer resolution agreement with observed levels is better 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

Modelled and observed monthly-mean Cd concentrations in air observed modelled 18 th TFMM, Prague,

Modelled and observed monthly-mean Cd concentrations in air observed modelled 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

Factors affecting seasonal variability of Cd levels § Variability of boundary layer height §

Factors affecting seasonal variability of Cd levels § Variability of boundary layer height § Seasonal changes of emissions from particular source categories § Episodes of high concentrations caused by LRTAP Factor 1: Effect of boundary layer height variability Winter: lower ABL, smaller vertical mixing, higher surface concentrations Summer: Higher ABL, higher vertical mixing, lower surface concentrations Emissions: no seasonal changes Ø The modelled concentrations exhibit seasonal variability due to meteorological factors 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

Factor 2: Seasonal changes of Cd emissions Emission scenarios ‘Base case’ – no seasonal

Factor 2: Seasonal changes of Cd emissions Emission scenarios ‘Base case’ – no seasonal changes of emissions Scenarios #1 - #3: monthly changes of total emission with amplitudes 30%, 50% and 70% Modelled and observed Cd conc. Emission in modelling domain ± 70% ± 30% base case scenario #1 (30%) scenario #3 (70%) observed Ø Underestimation of Cd concentrations in cold seasons remains 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

Sector composition of Cd emission in Poland Cd sectors in Poland Monthly factors (

Sector composition of Cd emission in Poland Cd sectors in Poland Monthly factors ( LOTUS/EUROS model) Industry (B) Residential combustion (C) Other Ø Sector “Residential combustion” has strong seasonal variability 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

National reporting of Cd emissions in Poland Reporting in 2014 Reporting in 2017 9

National reporting of Cd emissions in Poland Reporting in 2014 Reporting in 2017 9 -fold decrease Industry (B) Residential combustion (C) Other National emissions of Cd in Poland was significantly revised recently due to strong decrease of emissions from the Residential combustion sector (C) 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

Experimental model calculations with increased emission from “Residential Combustion” § Seasonal variations as in

Experimental model calculations with increased emission from “Residential Combustion” § Seasonal variations as in LOTUS-EUROS model § Emission from sector “Residential Combustion” x 5 Cd air concentrations Orig. PL emission PL 0505 A Res. Comb x 5 Industry (B) Res. combustion (C) Other Orig. PL emission Increased Res. Combustion Observed Ø Future work: scenario model runs to evaluate effect of “Residential Combustion” 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

Factor 3: Analysis of particular episodes caused by LRTAP Cd concentrations in air, 0.

Factor 3: Analysis of particular episodes caused by LRTAP Cd concentrations in air, 0. 1° x 0. 1° 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

Analysis of episodes using back trajectories Cd emission February, 4 - 10 December, 9

Analysis of episodes using back trajectories Cd emission February, 4 - 10 December, 9 - 15 Frequency of back trajectories (HYSPLIT) 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

Analysis of episodes using back trajectories Cd emission January, 14 - 27 Frequency of

Analysis of episodes using back trajectories Cd emission January, 14 - 27 Frequency of back trajectories (HYSPLIT) November, 11 - 20 Frequency of back trajectories (HYSPLIT) Ø Emissions in the eastern part of Europe needthspecial attention 18 TFMM, Prague, May 2017

Modelled and observed concentrations in air at Polish urban stations Gdansk Plock Warsaw Modelled

Modelled and observed concentrations in air at Polish urban stations Gdansk Plock Warsaw Modelled (0. 1° x 0. 1°) and observed concentrations in air Ø At most of urban stations finer resolution favours improvement of modelling results 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

Emission and air concentrations of Cd (Warsaw city) Cd emission (Poland) Cd emission (Warsaw)

Emission and air concentrations of Cd (Warsaw city) Cd emission (Poland) Cd emission (Warsaw) Air concentrations Warsaw PL 0214 A Power plants Ø Modelling with fine resolution is highly sensitive to spatial distribution of emission data 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

Concluding remarks § Air concentrations, calculated in old (stereographic) and new (lat-lon) projections are

Concluding remarks § Air concentrations, calculated in old (stereographic) and new (lat-lon) projections are similar in Europe. However, more work is needed on wet deposition and wind re-suspension § Change of land-cover data resulted to significant changes of modelled levels. Harmonized land-cover data within CLRTAP (for the EMEP centres and WGE) is needed § Transition to finer spatial resolution favours general agreement between modelled and observed concentrations in air in Poland. However, the model tends to underestimate Cd levels in cold season § Factors, affecting seasonal changes include meteorological conditions, seasonal variability of national emissions and transboundary transport from foreign sources § Cd emission from sector “residential combustion” in Poland is probably underestimated § Modelling with fine resolution is highly sensitive to spatial distribution of emission data 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017

Further activity § Continue analysis of emission sector composition on Cd levels in Poland,

Further activity § Continue analysis of emission sector composition on Cd levels in Poland, including emission scenarios § Analysis of Cd wet deposition § Preparation of policy-oriented information on Cd pollution in Poland for national experts, including: - S-R matrices for voevodships - Contribution of emission source categories to Cd pollution - Contribution LPS to Cd pollution - …. . § Joint report on Cd pollution in Poland § Summary report focused on main outcomes of country-specific activities 18 th TFMM, Prague, May 2017