COUNTRY CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR 202021 RAINFALL SEASON Zambia
COUNTRY CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR 2020/21 RAINFALL SEASON Zambia Meteorological Department Loveness Nikisi/Miyanda Syabwengo ZAMBIA
Outline • • • Drivers of the country’s climate Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season – OND Model Hit Skills Score (CFT and CPT) – OND Model(s) Forecast (CFT and CPT) – OND Consensus – NDJ Model Hit Skills Score(CFT and CPT) – NDJ Model(s) Forecast (CFT and CPT) – NDJ Consensus – DJF Model Hit Skills Score (CFT and CPT) – DJF Model(s) Forecast (CFT and CPT) – DJF Consensus – JFM Model Hit Skills Score (CFT and CPT) – JFM Model(s) Forecast(CFT and CPT) – JFM Consensus Summary of Consensus forecast (OND, NDJ, DJF, JFM)
Drivers of Zambia’s climate Zambia is humid subtropical or tropical wet and dry, with small patches of semi-arid steppe climate in the south-west. Rainfall varies over a range of 500 to as high 1, 300 mm in some areas in the north. • Congo Air Boundary (CAB) originate as recurved Atlantic south-easterlies, meet with the easterly Indian Ocean trade winds at the surface and give increased rainfall over northern Zambia. • Angola Low- it has an important effect on the development of the onset and subsequent nature of the season; • ITCZ ; Zambia normally receives the bulk of its annual rainfall from November through to March as the ITCZ moves south • Southeast trade winds-loose much of their humidity by the time they have reached so far inland affecting southern Zambia
Drivers of Zambia’s climate • Sub-Tropical high pressure systems- when strong pushes the ITCZ northwards • Frontal systems- give Zambia a lot of rain when in phase with the tropical low pressure • Tropical Cyclones- depending on its position; can either dry or wet Zambia • El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)- Warm phase; reduced rainfall over the south and cold phase ; increased rainfall over the south • IOD-there is minimal correlation with Zambia’s rainfall except the northeastern parts
OND Model Hit Skills Score (CFT and CPT) 62. 75 77. 57 66. 75
OND Model Hit Skills Score (CFT and CPT)
OND Model(s) Forecast (CFT and CPT) MLP QGIS NMME
OND Consensus 2020
NDJ Model Hit Skills Score (CFT and CPT) NMME
NDJ Model Hit Skills Score (CFT and CPT)
NDJ Model(s) Forecast (CFT and CPT) 56 67. 6 69. 21 MLP_QGIS NMME
NDJ Consensus 2020/21
DJF Model Hit Skills Score (CFT and CPT) 61. 5 69. 3 65. 4 NMME
DJF Model Hit Skills Score (CFT and CPT)
DJF Model(s) Forecast (CFT and CPT) QGIS_MLP NMME
DJF Consensus 2020/21
JFM Model Hit Skills Score (CFT and CPT) MLP 65. 08 61. 75 61. 5 NMME
JFM Model Hit Skills Score (CFT and CPT)
JFM Model(s) Forecast (CFT and CPT) MLP_QGIS NMME
JFM Consensus 2020/21
Summary of Consensus Forecast (OND, NDJ, DJF and JFM NDJ
- Slides: 21