COUNTRY CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR 202021 RAINFALL SEASON Zambia

COUNTRY CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR 2020/21 RAINFALL SEASON Zambia Meteorological Department Loveness Nikisi/Miyanda Syabwengo ZAMBIA

Outline • • • Drivers of the country’s climate Climate Outlook for 2020/21 season – OND Model Hit Skills Score (CFT and CPT) – OND Model(s) Forecast (CFT and CPT) – OND Consensus – NDJ Model Hit Skills Score(CFT and CPT) – NDJ Model(s) Forecast (CFT and CPT) – NDJ Consensus – DJF Model Hit Skills Score (CFT and CPT) – DJF Model(s) Forecast (CFT and CPT) – DJF Consensus – JFM Model Hit Skills Score (CFT and CPT) – JFM Model(s) Forecast(CFT and CPT) – JFM Consensus Summary of Consensus forecast (OND, NDJ, DJF, JFM)

Drivers of Zambia’s climate Zambia is humid subtropical or tropical wet and dry, with small patches of semi-arid steppe climate in the south-west. Rainfall varies over a range of 500 to as high 1, 300 mm in some areas in the north. • Congo Air Boundary (CAB) originate as recurved Atlantic south-easterlies, meet with the easterly Indian Ocean trade winds at the surface and give increased rainfall over northern Zambia. • Angola Low- it has an important effect on the development of the onset and subsequent nature of the season; • ITCZ ; Zambia normally receives the bulk of its annual rainfall from November through to March as the ITCZ moves south • Southeast trade winds-loose much of their humidity by the time they have reached so far inland affecting southern Zambia

Drivers of Zambia’s climate • Sub-Tropical high pressure systems- when strong pushes the ITCZ northwards • Frontal systems- give Zambia a lot of rain when in phase with the tropical low pressure • Tropical Cyclones- depending on its position; can either dry or wet Zambia • El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)- Warm phase; reduced rainfall over the south and cold phase ; increased rainfall over the south • IOD-there is minimal correlation with Zambia’s rainfall except the northeastern parts