Costrevealing knowledge under information uncertainty HIVAIDS knowledge and

Cost-revealing knowledge under information uncertainty HIV/AIDS knowledge and sexual behavior of female young adults in the Philippines Michael R. M. Abrigo University of Hawai`i at Manoa Kris A. Francisco National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies

Typhoons Sendong and Pablo inflicted horrific damage…. But this is only one (sic) in a long litany of storms, not necessarily natural. We can include the promotion of a culture of death and promiscuity… [through] school sex education, bringing more promiscuity and teenage pregnancy. – Jose S. Palma, CBCP President CBCP Pastoral Statement, January 2013

Is there basis? 1. Empirical Studies – Recent studies in support of sex education – Earlier studies, programs with more cautious tone 2. Theoretical Studies – Effect of sex education depends on stochastic ordering of expected utility under different states – Information uncertainty may be more important

Is there basis? 1. Empirical Studies – Recent studies in support of sex education – Earlier studies, programs with more cautious tone 2. Theoretical Studies – Effect of sex education depends on stochastic ordering of expected utility under different states – Information uncertainty may be more important

How is it currently? Risk-loving but not necessarily knowledgeable >< > <

What does data say? Women with +knowledge engage in sex later

What do experiments say? • In the Philippines, limited randomized control trials (the evaluation “Gold Standard”) • Limitations of experimental studies – Cost; Ethics; External validity – Does not account for simultaneity between knowledge demand sexual behavior, which may lead to biased effect estimates

What does our analysis say? • Sex education causes “better” sexual behavior – Delays sexual initiation – Decreases sexual activity – Increases propensity of condom-use • Different impacts by characteristics – Younger v. older – Poor v. non-poor

Is it comparable with others? • Estimates of effect on sexual activity are comparable with other studies • Absolute magnitude of effect is decreasing in the variability in knowledge

What is the bottom-line? • Sex education in the Philippines causes rational sexual behavior response • Reveals true cost of (risky) sexual behavior • Decreases uncertainty in costs • Differential impacts warrant differential interventions