Cost and Schedule Paul Weinman Pacific Northwest National

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Cost and Schedule Paul Weinman Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Cost and Schedule Paul Weinman Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Outline • • Scope Development Funding Profile Project Schedule Cost Estimate Basis of Estimate

Outline • • Scope Development Funding Profile Project Schedule Cost Estimate Basis of Estimate Contingency Summary 03/19/14 Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review 2

US Belle-II Baseline Developed Using PNNL’s Certified EVMS A product of iterative planning WBS

US Belle-II Baseline Developed Using PNNL’s Certified EVMS A product of iterative planning WBS Dictionary/Scope Development Schedule Development Resource Planning/Cost Development Baseline development, control and performance reporting is using the same systems and staff deployed on the Physical Sciences Facility Project 03/19/14 Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review Time-Phased Project Cost Estimate 3

US Belle II Project Scope Organized by Detector Components i. TOP Optics (WBS 1.

US Belle II Project Scope Organized by Detector Components i. TOP Optics (WBS 1. 02) KLM Systems (WBS 1. 04) US Belle II Project Commissioning Detectors (WBS 1. 05) Readout Systems (WBS 1. 03) to record signals from WBS 1. 02 and 1. 04 components 03/19/14 1. 01 Project Integration and Support 1. 02 i. TOP Optics 1. 03 Readout Systems 1. 04 KLM Systems 1. 05 Commissioning Detectors Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review 4

All Project Scope Captured in Work Breakdown Structure • WBS dictionaries developed at Level

All Project Scope Captured in Work Breakdown Structure • WBS dictionaries developed at Level 2 elements • Responsibility for delivery of KPPs assigned thru WBS to Work Packages – Documented in RAM • Technical decisions clearly identified/supported by schedule activities 03/19/14 Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review 5

Baseline Developed in Accordance With Funding Guidance 03/19/14 Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent

Baseline Developed in Accordance With Funding Guidance 03/19/14 Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review 6

Schedule Development • Schedule aligns with funding profile, meets Japanese construction dates • L

Schedule Development • Schedule aligns with funding profile, meets Japanese construction dates • L 2 managers identified tasks by phase (Design, Prototype, Production) • Schedule organization consistent with WBS – 104 key milestones to track progress (Level 1, 2 and 3) – 970 schedule activities – Resource loaded – Supports BA/BO profiles • Critical path analysis – Critical path through Readout development and i. TOP quartz procurement – ~60 activities with less than two weeks total float – Constraints from Belle II (Japanese) Construction schedule drives float 03/19/14 Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review 7

Schedule Basis Scope Schedule Basis 1. 02 - i. TOP Optics Production rates and

Schedule Basis Scope Schedule Basis 1. 02 - i. TOP Optics Production rates and delivery schedules based on extensive prototyping with multiple vendors (Aperture/Okamoto, Zygo, ITT Space Systems) for Bars, Mirrors, and Prisms 1. 03 - Readout Systems Several iterations of design, fabrication/assembly and testing of prototypes, experience with electronic board development and vendor quotes for production 1. 04 - KLM Systems Production complete 1. 05 - Commissioning Detector Experience on original Belle Commissioning Detector, CLEO dose monitor and prototype micro TPCs for other R&D efforts 03/19/14 Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review 8

Schedule Meets Belle II (Japanese) Facility Construction Schedule 03/19/14 Paul Weinman, US Belle II

Schedule Meets Belle II (Japanese) Facility Construction Schedule 03/19/14 Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review 9

Critical Path Runs Through Optics Production Item Critical Path to Japanese Schedule 03/19/14 Date

Critical Path Runs Through Optics Production Item Critical Path to Japanese Schedule 03/19/14 Date CD-2 Approval 4/24/14 Place Order for TEC Bars 5/2/14 Complete Testing of Commissioning Detector 2 TPC Prototypes 5/28/14 TEC Bar Production 8/27/14 i. TOP Board Stack – 1 st Boards Ready for Integration 9/15/14 Quartz Optics Ready for Module 4 10/22/14 Quartz Optics Ready for Module 7 12/4/14 Assembly of Commissioning Detector Structure and TPC Prototypes 12/31/14 Quartz Optics Ready for Module 10 2/4/15 Fabrication/Construction Commissioning Detector TPCs 7/7/15 Commissioning Detector TPCs Ready for Installation 9/23/15 Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review 10

TPC Drivers by WBS • TPC $15 M, Contingency @ 30% of TEC •

TPC Drivers by WBS • TPC $15 M, Contingency @ 30% of TEC • i. TOP Optics accounts for ~50% of TPC 03/19/14 Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review 11

Cost Estimate – Resource Loaded Plan Generates Time Phased Budget 03/19/14 Paul Weinman, US

Cost Estimate – Resource Loaded Plan Generates Time Phased Budget 03/19/14 Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review 12

Cost Estimate § Bottom-up estimate reflecting maturity of design and prototyping to date •

Cost Estimate § Bottom-up estimate reflecting maturity of design and prototyping to date • Class 1 and 2 Estimate • L 2 Managers identified resource requirements, vetted and approved by PM • Resources assigned to schedule activities § Resource loaded plan generates time phased budget • Summarized through WBS • Estimated labor hours and materials/subcontracts are priced in accordance with DOE approved PNNL Standard Pricing System • Pricing includes overheads and escalation § TEC estimate refined based on vendor quotes and prototyping experience 03/19/14 Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review 13

Cost Estimate is Mature • 67% of budget based on bids and vendor quotes

Cost Estimate is Mature • 67% of budget based on bids and vendor quotes • Balance of estimate based on previous similar efforts and material take-offs • Basis of Estimate identified at activity level, summarized at level 3 of WBS by resource type • Traceable through fully burdened cost plan (WBS) 03/19/14 Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review 14

Staff Resources Identified and Committed to project 03/19/14 Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent

Staff Resources Identified and Committed to project 03/19/14 Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review 15

Detailed Cost Elements Budgeted and Monitored at Project Level • Enables evaluation of staffing

Detailed Cost Elements Budgeted and Monitored at Project Level • Enables evaluation of staffing assumptions and risk • University Labor/M&S Executed as subcontracts – $3. 8 M of University scope ($1. 0 M of labor) executed in subcontracts from PNNL 03/19/14 Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review 16

BA/BO Profile Linked to Schedule via Time Phased Cost Profile § BA – Funding

BA/BO Profile Linked to Schedule via Time Phased Cost Profile § BA – Funding guidance from OHEP § BO – Cost+ Commitments • Time phase cost profile • Award of contract actions represent commitment • Sufficient Contingency across periods Cost and commitments do not include contingency 03/19/14 Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review 17

30% Contingency Appropriate Quantified By Monte Carlo • Utilize a formal risk management process

30% Contingency Appropriate Quantified By Monte Carlo • Utilize a formal risk management process • Quantitative assessment (Monte Carlo) performed – supports qualitative analysis • Contingency estimate of ~$2 M (30%) and 12 months sufficient to support identified risks. 80% probability of completing within TEC 03/19/14 Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review 18

Summary • Project ready to be baselined • Baseline developed using proven process and

Summary • Project ready to be baselined • Baseline developed using proven process and experienced staff • The cost and schedule estimates are complete and realistic to accomplish the planned scope – Cost estimate is based largely on bids or quotes – Schedule based on prototyping, quotes, experience on similar work • Adequate scope, cost and schedule contingency is included – Cost contingency of 30% and schedule contingency of 12 months is appropriate • Schedule is resource-loaded, reflects the entire scope of the project, meets Belle II (Japanese) construction schedule and OHEP guidance • Project milestones and critical path have been established for the project 03/19/14 Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review 19

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