Cornwallis IX Stadtschlaining Austria 5 8 April 2004

Cornwallis IX Stadtschlaining, Austria 5 -8 April 2004 E. P. Visco gvisco@bellatlantic. net IAMWG 23 April 2004 Evidence Based Research Vienna, VA

Cornwallis Group: Who, What, Why? • Small gaggle: US & UK • Early 1990 s: dissatisfaction with conventional symposia (esp. ISMOR & MORS) – Insufficient time – New problems, new approaches • First meeting, April 1996 • Cornwallis I thru VIII at Pearson Peacekeeping Centre, Nova Scotia, Cda • Cornwallis IX designed to attract more Europeans

Proceedings I. Analytic Approaches to the Study of Future Conflict II. Analysis for and of the Resolution of Conflict III. Analysis for Peace Operations IV. Analysis for Civil-Military Interactions V. Analysis for Crisis Response and Societal Reconstruction VI. Analysis for Assessment, Evaluation and Crisis Management VII. Analysis for Compliance and Peace Building VIII. Analysis for Governance and Stability

Proceedings Available • Canadian Peacekeeping Press, Pearson Peacekeeping Centre, Cornwallis Park, PO Box 100, Clementsport, NS B 0 S 1 E 0, Canada • Tel: 902. 638. 8611 x 161 or 164 • Fascimile: 902. 638. 3310 • orders@ppc. cdnpeacekeeping. ns. ca • http: //www. cdnpeacekeeping. ns. ca

Cornwallis IX Key Notes • Dayton Maxwell: Are We Reaching the Threshold on Overcoming the Obstacles to Effective Civil-Military Cooperation on Mission Achievement? • COL Graf von Strachwitz: On Afghanistan

Peace Analysis • Walter Clark, US: Doing it the hard way: civil-military policies in Iraq and Afghanistan • Ian Mitchell & John Medhurst, UK: Winning the Peace--Scope and Management Implications of Analysis of Stabilization and Counter-Terrorist Operations • Dave Davis, US: Analytic Support to a Civilian Headquarters--The Cornwallis Approach • LTC Christopher J. Holshek, US: Civil-Military and Information Operations in Iraq: Finding Success in Synergy

Peace Analysis (concluded) • Larry Wentz & Michael Baranick, US: Stability and Reconstruction Operations: What we can learn from history • Michael Neighbour, UK: Analysis Capabilities for Peace Support Operations: A personal perspective • COL Richard Cousens & Robert Bailey, UK: Presence in Peace Operations • Scott Feil, US: Application of Metrics to Iraqi Reconstruction

Counter-Terrorism • Cecilia C. Dionco Noble & Dennis Legaspi, PI: Information Operations as a Tool of Stabilization Operations in Counter-Terrorism • Richard Hayes & Margaret Daly Hayes, US: Measuring Terrorism and Insurgency in a 21 st Century Context • Manfred Bartha, GE: Homeland Security

Counter-Terrorism (concluded) • A. D. Hossack, et al, UK: The Behaviour of Counter-Terrorist Campaigns: Results from Historical Analysis, including Observations on Current Operations in Iraq • Karl Bertsche, GE: Agent Based Simulation of Terrorist Attacks

Military Analysis • Hugh Richardson, UK: Effects. Based Operations: the Analysis Challenge • George Rose, UK: The Role of the NATO Code of Best Practice for Provision of Analysis Advice in New Operational Scenarios • A. J. Hopkins, UK: Operational Analysis in Support of HQ MND(SE), Basrah, Iraq, 2003

New Tools for Analysis • Lorna Frewer, UK: Agent. Based Modeling • S. Andes Christensson, SW: How do we find robust definitions of feedback indicators signifying stabilities in counter-terrorism operations • Panel (Maxwell, Davis, Rose, & T. Woodcock), US & UK: Modeling and Analysis Requirements to Meet the Challenge of New and Emerging Conflicts

Summation • Attendees – United States: 12 – United Kingdom: 12 – Germany: 4 – Philippine Islands: 2 – Sweden: 2 – Canada: 1 • Presenters: 24 • Papers: – Peace-related: 11 – Counter-terrorism: 5 – Military analysis: 3 – New tools/tasks: 3