Corn Soybean Outlook Iowa Seed Association 107 th

Corn & Soybean Outlook Iowa Seed Association 107 th Annual Convention Ames, Iowa November 11, 2009 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2007 2008 2009 93. 5 86. 0 86. 4 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 150. 7 153. 9 162. 9 Production (mil. bu. ) 13, 038 12, 101 12, 921 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 304 1, 624 1, 674 Imports (mil. bu. ) 20 14 10 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 14, 362 13, 739 14, 605 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 913 5, 254 5, 400 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 3, 049 3, 677 4, 200 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 338 1, 276 1, 280 Exports (mil. bu. ) 2, 437 1, 858 2, 100 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 12, 737 12, 065 12, 980 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 624 1, 674 1, 625 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) 4. 20 4. 06 3. 55 Department of Economics Source: USDA

U. S. Corn Harvest Progress Department of Economics Source: USDA

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2007 2008 2009 Area Planted (mil. acres) 64. 7 75. 7 77. 5 Yield (bu. /acre) 41. 7 39. 7 43. 3 Production (mil. bu. ) 2, 677 2, 967 3, 319 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 574 205 138 Imports (mil. bu. ) 10 13 8 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 3, 261 3, 185 3, 465 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 803 1, 662 1, 695 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 93 101 175 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 159 1, 283 1, 325 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 056 3, 047 3, 195 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 205 138 270 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) 10. 10 9. 97 9. 20 Department of Economics Source: USDA

U. S. Soybean Harvest Progress Department of Economics Source: USDA

Storage Issues Department of Economics Source: Hurburgh and Elmore, ICM News, 10/15/09

World Corn Production Department of Economics Source: USDA

World Soybean Production Department of Economics Source: USDA

Exports & Advance Sales (1 st 8 weeks of marketing year) Department of Economics Source: USDA, FAS

Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA, NYMEX Department of Economics

Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Department of Economics Crop Year Billion Bushels 2008 3. 57 2009 4. 11 2010 4. 43 2011 4. 64

Corn Department of Economics

Soybeans Department of Economics

Ratio: Nov. 2010 Soy/Dec. 2010 Corn Department of Economics Source: CBOT

Input Costs Department of Economics Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices, Oct. 30, 2009

Thoughts for 2009 and Beyond ØGeneral economic conditions ØRecession: Are we done yet? ØProjected economic recovery is a major key for crop prices for the 2009 marketing year ØContinued weakness in the dollar helping exports ØMost important ag. statistics: Harvest progress, crop production, feed demand ØUSDA is indicating 2009 season-average prices in the neighborhood of $3. 55 for corn and $9. 20 for soybeans ØFutures Nov. 9: Corn $3. 71, Soy $9. 39 Ø 2010/11 based on futures Nov. 9: Corn $4. 21, Soy $9. 41 Department of Economics

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Department of Economics