Corn and Soybean Outlook AAEA Washington DC Aug
Corn and Soybean Outlook AAEA Washington, DC Aug. 5, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 86. 4 88. 2 91. 9 97. 2 97. 4 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 164. 7 152. 8 147. 2 123. 4 156. 5 Production (mil. bu. ) 13, 092 12, 447 12, 360 10, 780 13, 950 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 673 1, 708 1, 128 989 729 Imports (mil. bu. ) 8 28 29 160 30 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 14, 774 14, 182 13, 516 11, 929 14, 709 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 125 4, 795 4, 545 4, 450 5, 150 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 4, 591 5, 019 5, 011 4, 650 4, 900 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 370 1, 407 1, 428 1, 400 1, 450 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 980 1, 834 1, 543 700 1, 250 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 13, 066 13, 055 12, 527 11, 200 12, 750 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 708 1, 128 989 729 1, 959 3. 55 5. 18 6. 22 6. 95 4. 80 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77. 5 77. 4 75. 0 77. 2 77. 7 Yield (bu. /acre) 44. 0 43. 5 41. 9 39. 6 44. 5 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 359 3, 329 3, 094 3, 015 3, 420 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 138 151 215 169 125 Imports (mil. bu. ) 15 14 16 25 15 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 3, 512 3, 495 3, 325 3, 209 3, 560 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 752 1, 648 1, 703 1, 660 1, 695 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 110 130 90 95 120 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 499 1, 501 1, 362 1, 330 1, 450 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 361 3, 280 3, 155 3, 085 3, 264 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 151 215 169 125 295 9. 59 11. 30 12. 50 14. 40 10. 75 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Crop Rating Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Crop Rating Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Corn Futures 4. 58 4. 50 4. 33 Source: CME Group, 8/2/2013 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Soybean Futures 11. 18 10. 97 10. 49 Source: CME Group, 8/2/2013 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
New Crop Prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Yield Estimate - Crop Conditions Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
3 Month Outlook - Temps Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond ØSupply/demand concerns ØCan the new crop beat the summer heat? So far, so good ØThen can it beat the freeze? ØNew crop ratings are decent, Eastern vs. Western Corn Belt ØCorn demand rebounding? Corn Soybeans 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 USDA $6. 95 $14. 40 $4. 80 $10. 75 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2013/14 Futures (8/2/13) $4. 33 $11. 18
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
- Slides: 18