Copyright by Yichun Zhang Zhenlong Zheng and Hai
第六章 普通股价值分析 @Copyright by Yichun Zhang, Zhenlong Zheng and Hai Lin, Department of Finance, Xiamen University, 2007
本章框架 Ø 股息贴现模型 Ø 市盈率模型 Ø 负债情况下的自由现金流分析法 Ø 通货膨胀对股票价值评估的影响 @Copyright by Yichun Zhang, Zhenlong Zheng and Hai Lin, Department of Finance, Xiamen University, 2007
零增长模型 (Zero-Growth Model) n n 模型假设:股息不变 ,即 把式(5)代入(1)中可得零增长模型: 。 n 当y大于零时, n 例6 -1 小于1,可以将上式简化为: @Copyright by Yichun Zhang, Zhenlong Zheng and Hai Lin, Department of Finance, Xiamen University, 2007
三阶段增长模型 (Three-Stage-Growth Model) n n 由莫洛多斯基 (N. Molodovsky,1965) 提出 ,现在仍然被 许多投资银行广泛使用 。 三个不同的阶段 : 股息增长率(g t) 阶段 1 阶段 2 阶段 3 ga gn 时间 (t) A B 图 6 -1:三阶段股息增长模型 @Copyright by Yichun Zhang, Zhenlong Zheng and Hai Lin, Department of Finance, Xiamen University, 2007
图 6 -2:H模型 股息增� 率g t ga g. H gn H 2 H �� t @Copyright by Yichun Zhang, Zhenlong Zheng and Hai Lin, Department of Finance, Xiamen University, 2007
图 6 -3:H模型与三阶段增长模型的关系 gt ga gn A H B 2 H t @Copyright by Yichun Zhang, Zhenlong Zheng and Hai Lin, Department of Finance, Xiamen University, 2007
市盈率模型类型 n 零增长模型 n 不变增长模型 n 多元增长模型 @Copyright by Yichun Zhang, Zhenlong Zheng and Hai Lin, Department of Finance, Xiamen University, 2007
股息增长率的决定因素分析 n 三个假定: (1) 派息比率固定不变,恒等于b; (2) 股东权益收益率(return on equity, ROE) 固定不变, 等于一个常数; (3) 没有外部融资。 n 推导: @Copyright by Yichun Zhang, Zhenlong Zheng and Hai Lin, Department of Finance, Xiamen University, 2007
小结:市盈率的决定因素 @Copyright by Yichun Zhang, Zhenlong Zheng and Hai Lin, Department of Finance, Xiamen University, 2007
通货膨胀与DDM模型 表 6 -7:名义变量与实际变量 � 量 ��� 量 名�� 量 股息增� 率 g* g=(1+ g* )(1+i)-1 � 本化率 y* y=(1+ y*)(1+i)-1 股�� 益收益率 ROE* ROE=(1+ ROE*)(1+i)-1 � 期第 1期股息 D 1* D= (1+i)D 1* 派息比率 b* @Copyright by Yichun Zhang, Zhenlong Zheng and Hai Lin, Department of Finance, Xiamen University, 2007
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