Coping With City Shrinkage A Critical Review of

Coping With City Shrinkage: A Critical Review of Housing Market and Urban Development Policies in the City of Erfurt (Germany) 2001 – 2011 Dr Simone Allin School of Architecture, Design and the Built Environment Property Management and Development Group

Eisenhüttenstadt/Stalinstadt 2010 06 March 2021 Source: http: //www. welt. de/kultur/article 9231174/Eisenhuettenstadt. Stalinstadt-Eisenhuettenstadt. html (24/03/2011). 2

Background • Research is based on previous findings of Master Thesis, completed in 2001 (University of Kaiserslautern, Germany) • Today’s presentation refers to initial results of on-going review of urban development policies and housing market strategies in the City of Erfurt over the past 10 years 06 March 2021 3

Overview 1. Introduction: Urban development trends in Germany before/after 1990 2. Focus: Housing market in Eastern Germany after 1990 3. Case study: Housing market in the City of Erfurt, Thuringia 4. Review of Erfurt’s housing market strategies and urban development policies between 2001 – 2011 5. Conclusions and outlook 06 March 2021 4

Population in Germany – 1990 Source: http: //www. destatis. de/bevoelkerungspyramide/ (23/03/2011). 06 March 2021 5

Population in Germany – 2000 Source: http: //www. destatis. de/bevoelkerungspyramide/ (23/03/2011). 06 March 2021 6

Population in Germany – 2010 Source: http: //www. destatis. de/bevoelkerungspyramide/ (23/03/2011). 06 March 2021 7

Population in Germany – 2060 Source: http: //www. destatis. de/bevoelkerungspyramide/ (23/03/2011). 06 March 2021 8

‘We are shrinking and getting older. ’ 06 March 2021 9

Economic transformation/recession Industry/ Production Finance Unemployed persons Services GDP (= BIP) Retail Source: http: //www. destatis. de/ (28/03/2011). 06 March 2021 10

Share of Brownfield Sites across Germany Source: http: //www. bbsr. bund. de/nn_23470/BBSR/DE/Veroeffentlichungen/Iz. R/2010/1/Grafiken. Karten. html (28/03/2011). 06 March 2021 11

Urban development implications: Leipzig Source: http: //www. bbsr. bund. de/nn_23470/BBSR/DE/Veroeffentlichungen/Iz. R/2010/1/Grafiken. Karten. html (28/03/2011). 06 March 2021 12

Urban development implications: Leipzig Source: http: //www. uni-leipzig. de/isb/squ/index. php? main=2 (24/03/2011). 06 March 2021 13

The extreme case of the housing market in Eastern Germany after 1990 Ø Approx. 776, 000 new dwellings built between 1991 - 1999 Source: http: //www. empirica-institut. de/kufa/kom-lang. pdf (28/03/2011). 06 March 2021 14

The extreme case of the housing market in Eastern Germany after 1990 -746, 000 Migration between 1980 – 1999 Source: http: //www. empirica-institut. de/kufa/kom-lang. pdf (28/03/2011). 06 March 2021 15

The extreme case of the housing market in Eastern Germany after 1990 Vacant dwellings according to Microcensus 1998: → 729, 000 dwellings = 13. 2% of whole stock Source: http: //www. empirica-institut. de/kufa/kom-lang. pdf (28/03/2011). 06 March 2021 16

Case study: Erfurt, Thuringia Source: City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban Development Concept, 2008, p. 25. 06 March 2021 17

Erfurt’s housing market – present stock (2006) Source: City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban Development Concept, 2008, p. 46. 06 March 2021 18

Erfurt’s overall settlement structure Source: City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban Development Concept, 2008, p. 47. 06 March 2021 19

Erfurt 2020 – Urban development ‘Leitbild’ Source: City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban Development Concept, 2008, p. 117. 06 March 2021 20

Erfurt 2020 – Diversified intervention framework Example of a refurbished large housing estate Source: City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban Development Concept, 2008, p. 125 & 127. 06 March 2021 21

Erfurt 2020 – Allocated funding & interventions Source: City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban Development Concept, 2008, p. 133. 06 March 2021 22

Review of Erfurt’s policy framework between 2001 – 2011: some initial reflections • Situation 2001: Draft local land use plan (FNP); no ISEK; Masterplan I; INNOVA (i. e. private consultancy) survey reports on housing market related issues only • Situation 2011: Adopted local land use plan; ISEK 2020; revised Masterplan II; urban development monitoring system Ø disintegrated policy situation in 2001; also reflected by fragmented institutional responsibilities Ø improved integration of relevant policies and institutions through collaborative work on comprehensive informal and formal urban development policies (i. e. FNP & ISEK) and housing market specific Masterplan II 06 March 2021 24

Critical review of measures undertaken before 2005 & their implications 06 March 2021 Source: BMVBS: 2. Statusbericht – 5 Jahre Stadtumbau Ost – eine Zwischenbilanz, 2007, p. 44. 25

Critical review of measures undertaken before 2005 & their implications • Masterplan I (city council & 4 large housing societies): - focus on demolition of large-scale GDR industrial housing stock (especially, estates built after 1970 s’ and in suburban areas), - although also high vacancy rates in historical city centre > reason: in the longer-term, development of inner-city locations is regarded more sustainable Ø But: What happens to vacant sites? Any interim or longerterm solutions? What are the wider implications of demolished infrastructure? How can diverse private owners of historical housing stock in city-centre be persuaded to refurbish their properties? 06 March 2021 26

Critical review of measures undertaken/proposed after 2005 & their implications 06 March 2021 27 Source: BMVBS: 2. Statusbericht – 5 Jahre Stadtumbau Ost – eine Zwischenbilanz, 2007, p. 42; BMVBS: 4. Statusbericht – Stadtumbau vor neuen Herausforderungen, 2010, p. 53, 83.

Critical review of measures undertaken/proposed after 2005 & their (potential) implications • Masterplan II: - summary re demolition: 7, 555 dwellings in total until 2009; vacancy rate dropped from 15. 1% (2002) to 4. 6% (GDR industrial housing stock only) > now classified as ‘stable conditions’ - successful integration in comprehensive urban development strategy: long-term planning & development objectives (> 2020): reasonable mix of flexibility & clear constraints - revised focus on consolidation of selected areas & parts of the City’s housing stock, based on urban ‘Leitbild’ Ø But: How will Erfurt cope with projected 2. wave of shrinkage and need for extensive refurbishment from 2016 onwards? 06 March 2021 28

Some initial conclusions • Obvious policy shift between 2001 – 2011: from demolition to careful development/refurbishment > sustaining • Comprehensive urban development/land use policy framework has become primary source of consultation & must now provide base for future integration • Thus, for example, all housing market (monitoring & development) strategies – incl. allocation requirements of state funding etc. – must be embedded in this framework • Present and most significant shortcoming: missing (city-) regional perspective on urban development, housing market and related policy-making: inter-city cooperation often hampered by negative perceptions and competition… 06 March 2021 29

Focus of future research • Qualitative part: Further in-depth investigation & evaluation of effectiveness and integrative capacity of urban development and housing market policies in Erfurt • Quantitative part: Collection, analysis and modelling of available demographic and housing market data in order to evaluate the performance of specific market segments, related targets and measures > could be used as a ‘tool’ for informing future policy-making 06 March 2021 30

Thank you! simone. allin@ntu. ac. uk 06 March 2021 31 Source: BMVBS: 4. Statusbericht – Stadtumbau vor neuen Herausforderungen, 2010, p. 94.