Continuous Probability Distributions Chapter 7 Copyright 2015 Mc

Continuous Probability Distributions Chapter 7 Copyright © 2015 Mc. Graw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of Mc. Graw-Hill Education.

Learning Objectives n n n LO 7 -1 Describe the uniform probability distribution and use it to calculate probabilities. LO 7 -2 Describe the characteristics of a normal probability distribution. LO 7 -3 Describe the standard normal probability distribution and use it to calculate probabilities. LO 7 -4 Approximate the binomial probability distribution using the standard normal probability distribution to calculate probabilities. LO 7 -5 Describe the exponential probability distribution and use it to calculate probabilities. 7 -2

LO 7 -1 Describe the uniform probability distribution and use it to calculate probabilities. The Uniform Distribution The uniform probability distribution is perhaps the simplest distribution for a continuous random variable. This distribution is rectangular in shape and is defined by minimum (a) and maximum (b) values. 7 -3

LO 7 -1 The Uniform Distribution – Mean and Standard Deviation Knowing the minimum and maximum values of a uniform distribution, we can define the probability function, and calculate the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the distribution. 7 -4

LO 7 -1 The Uniform Distribution – Example Southwest Arizona State University provides bus service to students. On weekdays, a bus arrives at the North Main Street and College Drive stop every 30 minutes between 6 a. m. and 11 p. m. Students arrive at the bus stop at random times. The time that a student waits is uniformly distributed from 0 to 30 minutes. 1. Draw a graph of this distribution. 2. Show that the area of this uniform distribution is 1. 00. 3. How long will a student “typically” have to wait for a bus? In other words what is the mean waiting time? What is the standard deviation of the waiting times? 4. What is the probability a student will wait more than 25 minutes? 5. What is the probability a student will wait between 10 and 20 minutes? 7 -5

LO 7 -1 The Uniform Distribution Example 1. Graph of uniformly distributed waiting times between 0 and 30: 7 -6

LO 7 -1 The Uniform Distribution – Example 2. Show that the area of this distribution is 1. 00. 7 -7

LO 7 -1 The Uniform Distribution – Example 3. How long will a student “typically” have to wait for a bus? In other words what is the mean waiting time? What is the standard deviation of the waiting times? 7 -8

LO 7 -1 The Uniform Distribution – Example 4. What is the probability a student will wait more than 25 minutes? 7 -9

LO 7 -1 The Uniform Distribution – Example 5. What is the probability a student will wait between 10 and 20 minutes? 7 -10

LO 7 -2 Describe the characteristics of a normal probability distribution. Characteristics of a Normal Probability Distribution § § § § It is bell-shaped and has a single peak at the center of the distribution. It is symmetrical about the mean. It is asymptotic: The curve gets closer and closer to the X-axis but never actually touches it. To put it another way, the tails of the curve extend indefinitely in both directions. The location of a normal distribution is determined by the mean, . The dispersion or spread of the distribution is determined by the standard deviation, σ. The arithmetic mean, median, and mode are equal. As a probability distribution, the total area under the curve is defined to be 1. 00. Because the distribution is symmetrical about the mean, half the area under the normal curve is to the right of the mean, and the other half to the left of it. 7 -11

LO 7 -2 The Normal Distribution – Graphically 7 -12

LO 7 -2 The Family of Normal Distributions Equal Means and Different Standard Deviations Different Means and Equal Standard Deviations 7 -13

LO 7 -3 Describe the standard normal probability distribution and use it to calculate probabilities. The Standard Normal Probability Distribution n n The standard normal distribution is a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. It is also called the z distribution. A z-value is the signed distance between a selected value, designated x, and the population mean, , divided by the population standard deviation, σ. The formula is: 7 -14

LO 7 -3 Areas Under the Normal Curve Using a Standard Normal Table 7 -15

LO 7 -3 The Empirical Rule – Verification n For z=1. 00, the table’s value is 0. 3413; times 2 is 0. 6826. For z=2. 00, the table’s value is 0. 4772; times 2 is 0. 9544. For z=3. 00, the table’s value is 0. 4987; times 2 is 0. 9974. 7 -16

LO 7 -3 The Normal Distribution – Example The weekly incomes of shift foremen in the glass industry follow the normal probability distribution with a mean of $1, 000 and a standard deviation of $100. What is the z value for the income, let’s call it x, of a foreman who earns $1, 100 per week? For a foreman who earns $900 per week? 17 7 -17

LO 7 -3 Normal Distribution – Finding Probabilities (Example 1) In an earlier example we reported that the mean weekly income of a shift foreman in the glass industry is normally distributed with a mean of $1, 000 and a standard deviation of $100. What is the likelihood of selecting a foreman whose weekly income is between $1, 000 and $1, 100? 7 -18

LO 7 -3 Normal Distribution – Finding Probabilities (Example 1) 7 -19

LO 7 -3 Finding Areas for z Using Excel The Excel function: =NORM. DIST(x, Mean, Standard_dev, Cumu) =NORM. DIST(1100, true) calculates the probability (area) for z=1. 7 -20

LO 7 -3 Normal Distribution – Finding Probabilities (Example 2) Refer to the information regarding the weekly income of shift foremen in the glass industry. The distribution of weekly incomes follows the normal probability distribution with a mean of $1, 000 and a standard deviation of $100. What is the probability of selecting a shift foreman in the glass industry whose income is between $790 and $1, 000? 7 -21

LO 7 -3 Normal Distribution – Finding Probabilities (Example 3) Refer to the information regarding the weekly income of shift foremen in the glass industry. The distribution of weekly incomes follows the normal probability distribution with a mean of $1, 000 and a standard deviation of $100. What is the probability of selecting a shift foreman in the glass industry whose income is less than $790? The probability of selecting a shift foreman with income less than $790 is 0. 5 -. 4821 =. 0179. 7 -22

LO 7 -3 Normal Distribution – Finding Probabilities (Example 4) Refer to the information regarding the weekly income of shift foremen in the glass industry. The distribution of weekly incomes follows the normal probability distribution with a mean of $1, 000 and a standard deviation of $100. What is the probability of selecting a shift foreman in the glass industry whose income is between $840 and $1, 200? 7 -23

LO 7 -3 Normal Distribution – Finding Probabilities (Example 5) Refer to the information regarding the weekly income of shift foremen in the glass industry. The distribution of weekly incomes follows the normal probability distribution with a mean of $1, 000 and a standard deviation of $100. What is the probability of selecting a shift foreman in the glass industry whose income is between $1, 150 and $1, 250? 7 -24

LO 7 -3 Using Z to Find X for a Given Probability - Example Layton Tire and Rubber Company wishes to set a minimum mileage guarantee on its new MX 100 tire. Tests reveal the mean mileage is 67, 900 with a standard deviation of 2, 050 miles and that the distribution of miles follows the normal probability distribution. Layton wants to set the minimum guaranteed mileage so that no more than 4 percent of the tires will have to be replaced. What minimum guaranteed mileage should Layton announce? 7 -25

LO 7 -3 Using Z to Find X for a Given Probability – Example 7 -26

LO 7 -3 Using Z to Find X for a Given Probability – Example 7 -27