Continuation of Adricosm forecasting activities P Oddo 1

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Continuation of Adricosm forecasting activities P. Oddo 1, A. Coluccelli 1, N. Pinardi 2,

Continuation of Adricosm forecasting activities P. Oddo 1, A. Coluccelli 1, N. Pinardi 2, M. Zavatarelli 2 1 -Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (Gruppo Nazionale di Oceanografia Operativa) 2 -Università di Bologna Progetto Requisite 12 -13 Dicembre 2005 (Ancona) Italian Ministry for the Environment and Territory INGV UNIBO

The AREG operational forecasting system Simulation Forecast Model AREG (POM based code) Horizontal /

The AREG operational forecasting system Simulation Forecast Model AREG (POM based code) Horizontal / Vertical resolutions 5 Km / 21 σ Start Time 1 -Jan-1999 End time Initial condition Rivers run-off Atmospheric forcing Precipitations Boundary conditions April 2003 www. bo. ingv. it/adricosm Climatological implementation of AREG Snap-shot of AREG simulation Daily Po data Constant Po run-off Climatological monthly mean, Raicich (others rivers) ECMWF(6 hr. 0. 5°) analysis ECMWF(6 hr. 0. 5°) forecast Climatological monthly mean (Legates Willmott 1990 ) OGCM (MFSTEP) analysis OGCM (MFSTEP) forecast

The AREG operational forecasting system Data Assimilation of coastal CTD and open ocean XBT

The AREG operational forecasting system Data Assimilation of coastal CTD and open ocean XBT EOF have been computed for several Adriatic regions EOF have been calculated from model results and for the following seasons: Winter (January-April) Spring (May-June) Summer (July-October) Autumn (November-December) In regions 2, 3, 4, 7 EOFs (T, S) from POM simulation In regions 5, 6 EOF(T, S) from MFS

The AREG operational forecasting system Data Assimilation of coastal CTD and open ocean XBT

The AREG operational forecasting system Data Assimilation of coastal CTD and open ocean XBT

New high resolution model (under development) Same Code : Different grid hor. : Different

New high resolution model (under development) Same Code : Different grid hor. : Different grid vert. : Different river run-off: Different advection scheme: Different initial condition: Different boundary condition: POM 5 to 2. 2 km 21 to 41 sigma reduced Croatian and Istrian Smol. to old POM scheme Clim. POM to interannual OPA MFS PP(MOM) to STEP(OPA)

New high resolution model (under development) New model Op. model Obs. Sat. Sea Surface

New high resolution model (under development) New model Op. model Obs. Sat. Sea Surface Temperature 20 September 2003

New high resolution model (under development) New Mod. Ope. Mod.

New high resolution model (under development) New Mod. Ope. Mod.

Weekly forecast to Requisite bulletins

Weekly forecast to Requisite bulletins

Weekly forecast to Requisite bulletins

Weekly forecast to Requisite bulletins

Conclusions and Future work üAREG forecasting activities have been implemented successfully and development continues

Conclusions and Future work üAREG forecasting activities have been implemented successfully and development continues (Operational from April 2003). ü Long term nesting of large shelf models seems to work without re-start and without model drift. ü The model results show a strong inter-annual variability, confirmed also by observed data. ü Data assimilation implemented for coastal CTD and open ocean XBTs üThe AREG 2. 2 km 41 sigma layers has been implemented. ü A preliminary comparison between model results has been carried out üSensitivity experiments on vertical resolution üImprove the resolution of surface forcing (atmospheric and rivers run-off). üSupport the activities for a high resolution coastal models.