Consequences for biodiversity of large scale biomass production
Consequences for biodiversity of large scale biomass production MNP Rob Alkemade Michel Bakkenes Ben ten Brink (project leader) Bas Eickhout Mireille de Heer Tom Kram Ton Manders Mark van Oorschot Fleur Smout Detlef van Vuuren Henk Westhoek UNEP-WCMC: Lera Miles Igor Lysenko Lucy Fish UNEP-GRID Arendal: Christian Nellemann LEI-WUR Hans van Meijl Andrzej Tabeau
Overview • • Biodiversity indicators Methodology Baseline scenario Climate mitigation (biomass production included) • conclusions Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 2
Global Biodiversity Outlook Which policy options may reduce the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010 (-> 2050)? at the global, regional and biome levels? at what cost? Options? biodiversity baseline 2000 time Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 3
Options 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. WTO liberalisation agricultural marked, WTO + Poverty alleviation in Africa Sustainable meat production Climate mitigation (max + 2 o. C; 450 ppm) Sustainable forest (wood plantations) Protected areas (20% per biome) Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 4
Biodiversity • Convention of Biodiversity (CBD) – Biodiversity encompasses the variety of life at the level of ecosystems, species and genes • Indicators (a. o. ) – – Area of specific biomes, ecosystems and habitats The abundance and distribution of selections of species Coverage of protected areas Status of threatened species: Red list index Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 5
Biodiversity loss? homogenisation “Fishing down the foodweb (Pauly, 2001)” Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 6
Which indicator? Mean Species Abundance (MSA) MSA Time Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 7
100% Biodiversity decrease Map color 50% 0% Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 8
Methodolgy GTAP – TIMER – IMAGE ---- > GLOBIO 3 model Changes in: • Population • Economicgrowth • Technology • lifestyle (meat cons) Indirect drivers • Food demand • Energy mix • Wood demand • Food trade pressures • Land use change • Climate change • N-deposition • Forestry • Infrastructure • fragmentation Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 Effects Biodiversity 9
Relationships pressure – mean species abundance Land use change forests grasslands climate Biofuels: tundra Crops (maize/sugarcane): 0. 1 Woody biofuels: 0. 2 forests grasslands Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 10
Overall Mean species abundance MSA = LUC * N * I * F MSA = Biodiversity of a region LUC = biodiversity value for land use type C = biodiversity loss due to climate change N = biodiversity loss due to Nitrogen pollution I = biodiversity loss due to Infrastructure F = biodviversity loss due to Fragmentation Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 11
Baseline scenario Characteristics (2050): Sources: OECD, IEA, FAO • Current policies • Kyoto • 1. 5 x global population • 2. 5 x global energy use • 3 x income person • growth of agricultural productivity • 5 % decrease of agricultural land rel to 2000, shift towards crops • Loss of biodiversity (MSA) of 7 -8 % (from 70% MSA in 2000 to 63% in 2050) Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 12
Biodiversity loss in the future th 2006 Fred Langeweg, Rob Greenweek Alkemade Brussels June 1330 -5 -06 13
Biodiversity loss in the future th 2006 Fred Langeweg, Rob Greenweek Alkemade Brussels June 1330 -5 -06 14
Biodiversity loss in the future th 2006 Fred Langeweg, Rob Greenweek Alkemade Brussels June 1330 -5 -06 15
Global loss: 70% -> 63% Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 16
Baseline and biofuel option comparison (2050) Baseline Biofuels • Ca. 1. 80 C T increase • Ca. 1. 50 C T increase • Ca. 630 ppm CO 2 equi. • Ca. 500 ppm CO 2 equi. • Emission 19 Pg C/yr • Emission 6 Pg C/yr (in 2020: 14 Pg C/yr) • Energy use: 850 Ej (in 2020: 12 Pg C/yr) • Energy use: 650 EJ 730 EJ fossil 380 EJ fossil 25 EJ modern biofuels 150 EJ modern biofuels 95 EJ other 120 EJ other • 0. 2 milj. Km 2 • 6 milj. Km 2 Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 17
Allocation of biofuel production • Extra area ca. 500 miljoen ha on low productive land: – Savannah – Tundra – Grassland systems • Energy crops for 100 miljoen ha on abandoned agricultural land • No extra conversion of forests • No competition with food crops Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 18
climate + 10% Agricultural area Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 19
Probable location of biofuel crops Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 20
Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 21
Effects of biomass production Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 22
Effects of biomass production Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 23
Effects of biomass production Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 24
On the longer term Using current model Climate effect > Land use effect < Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 25
Conclusions • Biomass production does help mitigating climate change, but land is needed to produce it, inevitably at the cost of natural areas • Mid – term (2050): bio-fuel production has a negative impact on biodiversity on global scale • Long term (after 2100): A positive effect may be possible Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 26
Thank you Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 27
Question: Which policy options may reduce the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010 (-> 2050)? at the global, regional and biome levels? at what cost? Options? biodiversity baseline 2000 time Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 28
Which biomes & regions? Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 29
Which biodiversity loss? Decrease in abundance of many original species increase in abundance of a few, often man-favoured species as a result of human interventions homogenisation Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 30
Design of model framework for GLOBIO 3 GLC 2000 Land use Nitrogen Climate Effect of Land use nitrogen climate GLOBIO 3 Infrastructure IMAGE roads Effect of patch size Infrastructure MSA Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 31
Option 5: Sustainable forestry plantations produce 2 -10 x semi-natural forest wood plantations meet demand by 2050 • 6. 5% increase “agricultural” area Logged area baseline Logged area option Logged plantation Logged forest Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 32
Conclusions • Go for a smart combination of options • Initial losses unavoidable in structural solutions • You have to lose a fly to catch a fish • Achieving the 2010 -target a good signal? Turning point ? Biodiversity Structural solutions Biofuel crops Plantations Poverty alleviation Baseline scenario 2000 2050 > 2100 Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 33
Slimme maatregel mix? : (niet doorgerekend) • Combinatie van meat, forestry & protected areas ! • Klimaat mitigatie zonder biofuels? • Geleide liberalisatie: vul yield-gap Zuid (straf op conversie) • Vrijkomende landbouwgrond: plantage, natuurherstel • Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 34
Biodiversity gains & losses Sub-Saharan Arica Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 35
Overzicht: areaal effect per optie in 2050 Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 per biome 36
Stylized relationship between human development (HDI) and productive ecological capital (NCI) 100% HDI NCI 0 Rob Alkemade June 13 th 2006 37
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