Confidence and Causality Niels van Miltenburg Niels vanmiltenburgphil

Confidence and Causality Niels van Miltenburg Niels. vanmiltenburg@phil. uu. nl

Presentation Outline

Presentation Outline n Introduce von Wright’s ideas with the help of an example of an experiment

Presentation Outline n Introduce von Wright’s ideas with the help of an example of an experiment n Distinguish between von Wright’s “strong” and “weak” positions

Presentation Outline n Introduce von Wright’s ideas with the help of an example of an experiment n Distinguish between von Wright’s “strong” and “weak” positions n Argue that the “weak” position is the most interesting position

Magnifying Glass Example

Magnifying Glass Example n Does the intervention need to be a human action?

Magnifying Glass Example n n Does the intervention need to be a human action? Von Wright: “Yes”

Magnifying Glass Example n Does the intervention need to be a human action? Von Wright: “Yes” n What makes action so special? n

Magnifying Glass Example n n Does the intervention need to be a human action? Von Wright: “Yes” What makes action so special? Von Wright: There is a conceptual connection between the concepts of causation and action

Counterfactual Element in Action

Counterfactual Element in Action n Certain changes in nature would not have occurred had we not produced them

Counterfactual Element in Action n Certain changes in nature would not have occurred had we not produced them n We can only act because we are confident that the world remains fairly stable

Strong vs Weak

Strong vs Weak n Strong: ‘p causes q’ means that we could produce q by bringing about p

Strong vs Weak n Strong: ‘p causes q’ means that we could produce q by bringing about p n Weak: We distinguish between causal relations and accidental regularities by using the notion of action, which is conceptually connected with the notion of causation

“Causalaria”

“Causalaria” n A n B

Hume n Given the fact that we can only observe regularly succeeding events, why do we see them as causally linked?

Confidence and Knowledge

Confidence and Knowledge n Confidence is intrinsic to our actions and constitutes our ability to act

Confidence and Knowledge n Confidence is intrinsic to our actions and constitutes our ability to act n Analogy with Anscombe’s ‘knowledge without observation’

Thanks for Listening