Conduction of a simulation considering cascading effects Anders

Conduction of a simulation considering cascading effects Anders Lönnermark SP Swedish Technical Research Institute Clément Judek and Abla Mimi Edjossan Sossou, University of Lorraine

Plan of the presentation § Introduction § Key concepts theory § Cascading effects § Crisis situation § Emergency situation § Scenario § Simulation methodology § Conclusion

Introduction • Critical situation that can be wether an emergency situation or a crisis situation can be of high consequences in a very rapid context • Decisions to be made are very important • Experience is needed to improve the capability to manage a critical situation • From real situations management • From sensitization and training sessions • Simulations are a solution because: • One can be planned whenever • One can fail • One can rise awareness and train

Key concepts theory • As in any work, we must set some definitions to avoid misunderstandings • In the wide domain of risk management the need to understand each other is crucial, because: • of high consequences • the situations can be very specific • there are many different involved stakeholders • We propose to clarify four important concepts • • Cascading effects Crisis situation Emergency situation Scenario

Key concepts theory Cascading effects • Cascading effects are the effects arising when an incident affecting one system or function in society propagates to another function or service, due to a dependency between them • For the Casc. Eff project, cascading effects refer to the impacts of an initiating event where: • System dependencies lead to impacts propagating to other systems, and; • The combined impacts of the propagated event are of greater consequences than the root impacts, and; • Multiple stakeholders and/or responders are involved.

Key concepts theory Cascading effects An example • The initiating event may be a fire in a power station happening in the Power system (the originating system called System 1 in the figure). • Cascading effects arise due to a dependency between the Power system and the Railway system (the dependent system called System 3 in the figure). • If this impacted system gives rise to additional impacts to other system, there is a continuation of the cascading effect. • The first resulting effects from directly impacted systems from the initiating event to dependent systems are defined as “first-order cascading effects”. If this line of propagation continues, second, third, etc. order cascading effects arise.

Key concepts theory Crisis situation • A clear definition of a crisis is necessary to differentiate it from other critical situations such as an emergency situation • This differentiation is essential for designing the conditions and the scenario in a simulation • The large amount of different definition found in the literature is confusing • Focusing on the given characteristics we propose to define the crisis with two categories of characteristics

Key concepts theory Crisis situation • By definition, there is no prepared plan for a crisis situation • Managers must adapt themselves • To improve their capability to steer a crisis situation, they can be aware of it to understand rapidly the nature of the situation they are coping with • In the context of a crisis, cascading effect is a concept that is important regarding its aftermaths spreading nature that can lead to « chaos » , the involvement of « many stakeholders » and « important consequences » that are part of the characteristics of the crisis situation.

Key concepts theory Emergency situation is not a crisis situation • This distinction is important • Both situation deal with high consequences, quick onset, many involved stakeholder etc. • However, an emergency situation is a known situation for which a prepared plan can be applied • Involved stakeholders must be trained to improve their capability to apply the prepared plan

Key concepts theory The concept of scenario • A scenario can be described as a story of possible future events • Scenarios can be used for many different purposes, such as: • • • to illustrate alternative solutions and identify potential problems to prevent certain effects to reduce uncertainty to question existing assumptions to indicate thinkable futures they can also be used as a management tool to improve the quality of strategic decisions

Key concepts theory The concept of scenario • Walker (1994) identifies four criteria for scenarios to be adequate and qualitative: • • consistency plausibility credibility relevance

Casc. Eff scenario library

Casc. Eff scenario library II

The Simulation methodology Design and development • Identify the exercise goal (training, testing/validation, raising awareness etc. ); • Set SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time-bound) exercise objectives and define corresponding performance/evaluation criteria; • Appoint the Exercise director and an Exercise project team (coordinator, operators, evaluators); • Develop the exercise scenario and prepare all content e. g. build the scenario • Create exercise documentation • Define the type of activity: test, simulation, discussion-based or operations-based exercise, etc. and prepare for a test plan/exercise script accordingly. Elaborate the test plan in parallel to the course of actions in the scenario: • • • Choice of location; Appropriate infrastructure; Required staff; Preparation of the required resources and logistic plan; Etc. • Establish a communication strategy.

The Simulation methodology Design and development Objectives setting of the planned session Defining the objectives of the session will help designing it. We propose two general types of objectives: • Training and testing • Are there elements to test and to train for? • Are cascading effects considered in specific plan? • Raising awareness • Are cascading effects not yet considered?

The Simulation methodology Design and development Different types of simulation - Regarding the objectives, the designer of the session must chose a type of simulation.

The Simulation methodology Design and development Scenario writing methodology I. Scoping the scenario field I. Definition of the purpose I. Cascading effects II. Crisis situation III. Emergency situation II. Strategical vs Tactical vs Operational I. Identification of problems to be addressed II. Theme II. Identification of key factors I. Key decision factors I. Drivers and barriers III. Analyzing key factors and their dependencies IV. Scenario script generation V. Scenario transfer to paths

The Simulation methodology Scenario description template I. III. IV. V. VIII. IX. X. XII. Name Place (location) Type of initiating event Description of the initial system Description of the course of events Description of cascading effects Description of the consequences Scale of the scenario Involved stakeholders Reference to historical event (if necessary) Reference to similar/relevant events (if necessary) How does the scenario differ from the historical event (if necessary)

The Simulation methodology Conduct • Start up briefing by the exercise coordinator: briefing of the exercise operators, key actors and supporting actors and distribution of documents; • Roll out of the test script and scenario; • Termination of the exercise

The Simulation methodology Conduct Identify the roles • Exercise roles (applicable to all exercises) • • Exercise director or manager Exercise (project) team Exercise coordinator Evaluator(s) Observer(s) Exercise Operators Safety controller • Scenario roles (specific roles in relation with the scenario) • Participants Key actors • Supporting actors

The Exercise methodology Evaluate • Post exercise debriefing: feedback from the evaluators is gathered, shared and discussed in one or more debriefing sessions; • Consultation of stakeholders: results of the debriefing can be shared with stakeholders

The Exercise methodology Improvement action plan • Improvement action plan: lessons learnt from the exercise need to be the subject of an action plan with actions, guidelines and/or recommendations for improvement

Conclusion • Do not forget to define the objecives • to fit with expectations • to avoid misunderstandings • Chose the adequated simulation types • Build a relevant scenario regading the objectives • Adapt the methodology to fit with the wanted session