Concluding Remarks Nigel Knowles Visiting Professor Cranfield University

Concluding Remarks Nigel Knowles Visiting Professor Cranfield University, UK ( Formerly Director of Technology WS Atkins Consultants, UK ) presented at ASRANET / FENET / IStruct. E joint meeting on Computational Mechanics in Structural Safety Risk and Reliability June 2003 6

where are we going…. . . ? 6 l Industry drivers and related issues l technical challenges l how should we respond? With acknowledgements to ASRANET and FENET colleagues!

Evolution of Analysis methods in industry pre 1880 - 'rules of thumb' 1880 - energy methods 1960's - special purpose programs – hardware limited 1970's codes - large scale general purpose analysis 1980's - non-linear optimisation computer graphics error measures probabilistic methods - incorporation into CAE, adaptivity, 'meshless’ f. e. a. 1990's

Typical 70’s issues l l l Solvers Element technology (shell elements!) Post processing Software verification Computer resources – (Can we fit it on the computer and if so will it solve in a sensible time)?

Progress Moores Law Numerical analysis capability now exceeds our ability to make effective use of it? CBIC

Market pressures l Time to market l Operational efficiency l Globalisation l Environmental concerns l Sustainability l Safety culture l PFI/PPI Longer time frames More holistic approaches 6

Ensuing business/technical issues Whole life management and costing l Life extension c. f. new build l • Assessment of existing structures • Ultimate strength analyses • Optimisation l Commercial risk assessment • Treatment of uncertainty • Decision making

Principal Current Issues l Integration of analysis into business processes • Optimisation and decision making l Safety qualification • Extreme events l Confidence • Validation and Q A l Technology transfer • Knowledge dissemination and retention 6

Integration of analysis into business processes l Not just a CAD-FE issue! – – Optimisation wrt to social, commercial and economic issues decision making (under uncertainty) standard procedures data • provenance • curacy • legacy – cultural, human and organisational issues 6

Safety qualification – extreme events (fire, crash, hurricane, earthquake etc) – uncertainty handling • poorly defined phenomena • infrequent occurrences • data provenance Stats/probability is not the complete answer – life extension geriatric structures • Code applicability? • Data • Safety margins? 6

Confidence – – 6 Validation (“fitness for purpose”) Error minimisation Controlling human error Standards and Q A

Technology transfer – Dissemination – Education and training – Don’t forget managers needs! – Legacy knowledge and experience 6

Key messages Integration - Broaden horizons! Safety Qualification - Recognise uncertainty Watch for CBIC! Confidence - still immature Technology transfer - more attention to “managers” needs