Conceptual Model Project Guiding Principles 1 2 3

Conceptual Model Project Guiding Principles 1. 2. 3. Fire emissions inventories (EIs) used for regulatory and research applications are not typically developed with data quality standards and metadata requirements like EIs developed for other significant source sectors Need for services/ products that provide vetted, metadatarich fire EIs for modeling and analysis applications at defined levels of quality Conceptual Model For Long-Term Fire Data Support (wrapair 2. org) Final Conceptual Model • Road map for services/products • Level of Effort • Scope development and support Secondary Stakeholders • Workshop 2 • Incorporate feedback • Refine conceptual model Primary Stakeholders • Workshop 1 • Incorporate feedback • Refine conceptual model Core Science Team Seed Concept • Identify key technical barriers • Refine services/products • Establish Core Principles • Define milestones Need for long-term support for fire emissions products or services to maintain consistency and continuity for stakeholders January February March April 2021 May June

Conceptual Model (CM) Project Status • Accomplishments to date • Formed a Core Science Team (CST) of EI practitioners and data providers • 5 CST meetings to develop CM requirements and technical steps • Invited two Subject Matter Experts to provide input and feedback on CM concepts • Upcoming activities • Finalize CM technical steps with targeted case studies exercising specific concepts • Finalize Data Warehouse concept and reach out to potential grant partners • Convene workshops with groups of stakeholders to introduce CM concepts, review technical details, and explore applications

2 Years 1 Year 6 months Real-Time MODIS MCD 64 A 1 SMARTFIRE v 2 NIFS (In. Forms) MTBS Annual Fire Geography FRAP Database Infrared datasets HMS NPS SMP Permits • Location; start date; growth cessation date; out date; smoldering stopped date • Sources of Data: Wildfire – SMARTFIRE, ICS 209, FRAP (CA); Rx – burn permit databases. Event • Acres or tons/day; burn type; fuel loading; fuel moisture • FCCS - fuel type & loading; WFAS – fuel moisture; burn type – reporting/permits; FCCS/EVT Grid Activity spatiotemporal rules NAWFD WFAS fuel moisture Burn Severity Satellite Detects – all types of fire with sufficient heat signature; effort to categorize and cross-check Default Fire Geography NASF LANDFIRE Vintage VIIRS AFP BAER/ BARC SERA • Tons burned • Blue. Sky modeling framework; FOFEM; reporting/permits; assumptions Consumption FINN CONSUME Blue. Sky Pipeline FEPS Emission Factors • Mass pollutant/ton burned • AP-42; Missoula Lab; other references; embedded in consumption/emission calculation frameworks FOFEM Emissions Inventory Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Primary Data/Tool Helper or Enhancer • Tons pollutant/day Available Components, Data Timing, Quality

2 Years 1 Year 6 months Real-Time MODIS MCD 64 A 1 SMARTFIRE v 2 NIFS (In. Forms) MTBS NPS SMP Permits • Location; start date; growth cessation date; out date; smoldering stopped date • Sources of Data: Wildfire – SMARTFIRE, ICS 209, FRAP (CA); Rx – burn permit databases. 1. NIFS + HMS for daily WF activity 2. Point Reports activity 3. HMS + fire geography for other activity • • Consumption & Emissions for #1 and #2 use Consume, fuels DB, moisture #3 uses FRP for consumption, SERA for emissions #1 and #2 can use WFEIS, #3 cannot Primary Data/Tool Helper or Enhancer Satellite Detects – all types of fire with sufficient heat signature; effort to categorize and cross-check Default Fire Geography • Acres or tons/day; burn type; fuel loading; fuel moisture • FCCS - fuel type & loading; WFAS – fuel moisture; burn type – reporting/permits; FCCS/EVT Grid Activity spatiotemporal rules NAWFD WFAS fuel moisture • Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Infrared datasets VIIRS AFP Event NASF LANDFIRE Vintage Burn Severity Annual Fire Geography FRAP Database HMS BAER/ BARC SERA • Tons burned • Blue. Sky modeling framework; FOFEM; reporting/permits; assumptions Consumption FINN CONSUME Blue. Sky Pipeline FEPS Emission Factors • Mass pollutant/ton burned • AP-42; Missoula Lab; other references; embedded in consumption/emission calculation frameworks FOFEM Emissions Inventory • Tons pollutant/day CMFD Level 1 -2 Fire EI Components

Base Fire Activity Development Steps NIFS (In. Forms) HMS Complete Activity Daily Apportioned Wildfire HMS leftovers Daily Apportioned Wildfire Classified consumption events Consumption Events Reconciled, Classified shortduration fires SMP Permits Rulesets: 1. Associate HMS data 2. Determine Fire End Dates 3. Fill Time Gaps 4. Assign Growth Curves 5. GOES AFP Profiles 6. Burn Severity Rulesets: 1. Cluster detections 2. Assign growth profile 3. Calculate cluster centroid 4. Estimate tons from FRP Fire Geography Rulesets: 1. Match consumption events with reports 2. Reconcile based on user selection

Base Fire EI Development Steps Complete Activity WFEIS Emissions Calculator WFAS fuel moisture FCCS/ EVT Grid Daily Apportioned Wildfire NAWFD Reconciled, Classified shortduration fires SERA CONSUME Emissions Output IWDW Data Warehouse

Data Warehouse Concepts Guiding Principles 1. Flexibility Data Products and Services 1. Comprehensive fire activity datasets for preset domains 2. Transparency 2. Model-ready fire emissions datasets 3. Guidance 3. QA/QC reports accompanying metadata 4. Stability 4. Multiple cycle times of product availability a. b. Options at each step Upload and examine user data No black boxes Links to documentation and metadata Guide users through process Present unfamiliar data/methods Stable across time Available to a wide range of users

Data Warehouse Products Hierarchy Level 0 Input Datasets and Tools Timing Purpose Level 1 Level 2 Specialty NIFS (In. Form), HMS, Default Fire Geography WFEIS Emissions Calculator Available annually no later than 6 months after the end of the previous calendar year Base platform for subsequent levels Rapid-response first-order estimate of daily emissions Estimates of similar quality and resolution as other source categories Level 0, SMP Reports, Annual Fire Geography WFEIS Emissions Calculator Available annually no later than 12 months after the end of the previous calendar year EI analysis and reporting Exceptional Events Level 1, GOES AFP (diurnal activity), MTBS WFEIS Emissions Calculator Available annually no later than 18 months after the end of the previous calendar year Photochemical Grid Modeling (PGM) Suitable for climatology analyses Level 2 with additional reporting Available as needs arise Regional Haze Modeling, e. g. , future fire scenarios