CONCEITO BRAZIL So Paulo Brazil Top Exports from
CONCEITO BRAZIL São Paulo, Brazil
Top Exports from Brazil Meat Sugar cane Orange Oil Corn Soy Coffee Ethanol Iron ore Airplanes
Doing Business in Brazil 1. Crisis and Recuperation 2. Economic Development 3. Trading Partners and Best Prospects
Industrial Production During the Crisis IBGE indicated growth of 0. 7% in March By category, in 1 st trimester 2009 compared to same period of 2008, in % : General industry: - 14. 7 Capital goods: - 20. 8 Intermediate goods: - 18. 1 Consumer goods: -8. 0 Durables: - 22. 5 Semi and non-durable: -3. 0
Retail Growth During the Crisis
Car Sales During the Crisis Car production increased 34. 2% between February and March. 340 290 240 190 140 90 Mar Apr 08 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Car Production, in thousand Oct Nov Dec Car Sales, in thousand Jan Feb 09 Mar
Invest Confidence • The main São Paulo Stock Exchange Index, the Bovespa, has risen more than 75% from its low point last October. • Since January, R$ 5. 7 billion has been invested in the Bovespa from overseas • Bovespa (Blue) vs. Dow Jones Industrial Average (Red).
Brazil’s Reaction to the Crisis Government measures: • Tax cuts such as IPI, the federal tax on domestic and imported manufactured products. • Interest rate reduction – 9. 25% per year. • Incentives for civil construction. • Infrastructure development.
GDP growing projection for 2010 The world recovering Source: Agencia Estado
Brazilian GDP Source: IBGE
Economic Indicators 2010 Estimates • GDP: US$ 1. 58 Trillion (IMF) • Growth Rate: 4. 83 % • Inflation Rate: 4. 60 % year • Foreign Direct Investment : US$ 35 Billion • Interest rates, SELIC at 8. 75 % year • Foreign Exchange Rate: 1 USD = 1. 75 Reais • Unemployment Rate: 7. 42 % • 190 Million Consumers with Increased Purchasing Power Source: Central Bank Brazil
Brazil Compared - GDP (US$ Billion) Source: International Monetary Fund
Brazil’s Rate of Growth 8% 7% Annual Percent 6% 5. 7% 5% 4. 3% 2. 6% average 4. 5% 4% 5. 1 % 3. 7% 3% 2. 9% 2. 7% 2% 1. 3% 1% 1% 0% 0. 0% 1998 0. 3% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: IMF, Consensus Forecasts, IBGE
Inflation Rate 2, 477 % 1993 Source: Agência Estado
Foreign Direct Investment (US$ Billion) Source: Central Bank Brazil
Prime rate in Brazil has reached the lowest historic level (in %)
Interest Rates • The SELIC rate is currently 8. 75 % (per year). • Mortgage loans range from 8% to 12% per year for up to 25 year loans plus inflation. • Businesses generally pay from 2% to 4. 5% (per month), depending on creditworthiness. • Checking account rates are about 140 % year. • Credit Card rates are 233 % per year. Source: Central Bank Brazil
Foreign Exchange Rate Source: BCB
Regional Disparities GDP share - % of total GDP - 2008 North – 4, 92 Northeast – 13, 68 Center-West – 7, 28 Southeast – 55, 09 South – 19, 03 Source: International Monetary Fund
Brazilian Imports by Economic Blocks
Bilateral Trade (US$ Thousands) Office of Trade and Industry Information (OTTI), U. S. Department of Commerce
Brazil Compared: U. S. Exports to Latin America Source: Foreign Trade Division, U. S. Census Bureau
Best Prospects for Sales to Brazil 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. Agricultural Sector Aerospace (Aircraft and Parts / Airports) Electrical Power Systems Environmental Franchising ICT - Information & Communication Technologies Insurance Medical Equipment Mining Oil and Gas Pharmaceuticals Safety & Security Transportation (Ports / Railways) Travel and Tourism
The Brazilian Oil and Gas Sector (November 2010) • Over 60 oil companies with oil exploration and appraisal areas in Brazil. • Petrobras 2009 -2013 investment: US$174 B (US$ 92 in Brazil’s E&P). Other oil co’s: Est. US$34. 5 B. • Opportunity: 819 oil blocks auctioned; Petrobras plans to contract about 300 new vessels (e. g. oil drilling and production platforms, ships, platform support boats, and very large crude oil carriers). • Pre-salt oil fields: Petrobras plans to invest USD$ 111. 4 billion from 2009 to 2020 to produce 5. 7 million bpd plus 1, 815 million bpd from pre-salt fields. This figure includes Petrobras and its partners’ pre-salt production. • Challenge: Heavy emphasis on local equipment content. • Complex suppliers’ registration process with Petrobras.
Pre-Salt Reserves The New Frontier: 100 Billion Barrels? (A 500 -mile wide area in Brazil, located under a thick layer of salt -- 350 miles off of Brazil’s southeastern coast, stretching from Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná, and Santa Catarina States, at an average water depth of over 7000 feet. About 25 percent of the presalt area has already been contracted to private companies through Brazil’s competitive bid round process. )
2010 Best Prospects for E&P Equipment • Production pipelines alloy coatings • Turbo compressors (6 -10 Mw) • Polyester mooring cables • Mooring systems • Drilling pipelines • Electrical cables • Control systems for well control • Oil and gas metering systems • Offshore drilling rigs • Gravel packing • Drill bits • Steam generators (25 -50 x 10 6 BTU/d); • Special sphere subsea valves • Subsea sensors for analysis of oil and grease traces in water
Best Prospects for E&P Services • Drilling • Workover services • Flexible lines and umbilicals laying services • Support to ROV vehicles • Support to mooring activities • Special vessels • Monitoring and inspection techniques for structural integrity of flexible risers
World Cup 2014 and Olympic Games 2016 Business Opportunities in Rio • Rio de Janeiro will host the first-ever Olympic Games in South America August- September 2016, as well as some of the games for the 2014 World Cup. These two events will generate numerous trade and investment opportunities in several areas, for both games and the city.
Estimated investments • The state government of Rio de Janeiro estimates that investments from 2010 -2016 will reach US$50 billion in infrastructure, construction, transportation, public security, education and training, among others. Most of those investments will occur through Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) under Brazil’s Growth Acceleration Program (PAC).
Investments in Building and Construction • There will be a huge demand for Architecture/Construction/Engineering (ACE) services to plan and build sport facilities (arenas, stadiums, etc), hotels, infrastructure and transportation projects, as well as port and airport upgrades.
Investments in Sport Facilities Although more than half of Rio 2016 venues are ready, since Rio hosted the 2007 Pan American Olympic Games, about 20 new facilities are to be built. They include: • An aquatic sports stadium with 18, 000 seats with an estimated construction cost of US$40 million. • An Olympic Park to host gymnastics, cycling, handball, and other sports competitions with an estimated building cost of US$200 million. • An Olympic village of 32 buildings with 12 floors each and a capacity of over 17, 000 beds estimated at US$450 million. • An Olympic Tennis Center with 16 courts (US$45 million). • A renovated rowing stadium at Rodrigo de Freitas Lagoon will cost approximately S$2 million. • An arena in Copacabana for beach volley (US$7 million). • The renovation of Maracanã Stadium (where the opening and closing Olympic ceremonies will be held as well as soccer games) will cost approximately US$400 million, and must be completed before 2014 to use in
Investments in Hotel/Hospital Facilities • In 2010, the number of visitors to the city is expected to grow in 10% in comparison to 2008, when 1. 68 million tourists came to Rio. By the time of the 2014 Soccer World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games this number will increase even more. • Several hotels are being refurbished. • The municipality of Rio may reduce taxes to attract new investment in hotels; thereby creating opportunities for U. S. hotel chains in refurbishment, architectural projects and building or acquiring existing hotels. • As for hospitals, a clinic will be built within the Olympic Village.
Investments in Infrastructure The estimated investment in infrastructure is about US$15 billion, including US$5 billion in logistics upgrades at seaports and airports. The main projects include: • The modernization and enlargement of the two International Airport terminals (increasing the airport's capacity from 15 million passengers per year to 25 million), • Highway widening, • Construction of “Olympic lanes”, • The Port of Rio area revitalization to include a new 30, 000 square meter leisure area featuring bars, restaurants, an amphitheater, a multi-use space and parking, • Port dredging, • Construction of two new subway lines, • The creation of a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system, • Housing projects (including low income housing) and • Water sanitation.
Infra-structure Matters in Brazil • • BR US Difference Soy production costs 187 Transportation costs 97 Port costs 7 Total 291 238 26 3 267 51 dollars cheaper in Brazil 71 dollars cheaper in U. S. 4 dollars cheaper in U. S. 24 dollars in favor of USA Conclusion: To produce soy in Brazil is 51 dollars cheaper, but the logistic costs eliminates this advantage. In the end, it is 24 dollars cheaper to get the product to market in the US. Source: Veja Magazine
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