Comprehensive Update of the Arkansas Water Plan Water

Comprehensive Update of the Arkansas Water Plan Water Demand January 2014

The Major Technical and Planning Elements of the Water Plan Update Issues and Recommendations to Address Shortfalls between Demand Supply Identify Gaps between Available Resource and Demands Final Plan Rulemaking Nov 2014 Supply Availability Demand Forecast by Sector Regional and Institutional Setting Water Needs forecasted to the Year 2050

Water Demand Sectors • Municipal • Self-Supplied Domestic • Self-Supplied Commercial • Crop Irrigation • Industrial • Shale Gas • Mining • Thermoelectric Power • Livestock • Aquaculture • Duck Hunting & Habitat Maintenance

Arkansas Statewide Water Demands 14, 000 12, 000 Million Gallons per Day (MGD) Crop Irrigation Livestock 10, 000 Duck Hunting & Habitat Maintenance Aquaculture 8, 000 Mining Shale Gas 6, 000 Thermoelectric Self-Supplied Commercial Industrial 4, 000 Self-Supplied Domestic Municipal 2, 000 Base Year 2020 2030 2040 2050

Arkansas Statewide Water Demands without Crop Irrigation 3, 000 2, 500 Million Gallons per Day (MGD) Livestock Duck Hunting & Habitat Maintenance 2, 000 Aquaculture Mining Shale Gas 1, 500 Thermoelectric Self-Supplied Commercial 1, 000 Industrial Self-Supplied Domestic Municipal 500 Base Year 2020 2030 2040 2050

Total Water Demands by Water Planning Region 14, 000 Million Gallons per Day (MGD) 12, 000 10, 000 West-central Arkansas 8, 000 Southwest Arkansas South-central Arkansas 6, 000 North Arkansas East Arkansas 4, 000 2, 000 0 Base Year 2020 2030 2040 2050

Total Water Demands by Water Planning Region without Crop Irrigation 3, 000 Million Gallons per Day (MGD) 2, 500 2, 000 West-central Arkansas Southwest Arkansas 1, 500 South-central Arkansas North Arkansas 1, 000 East Arkansas 500 0 Base Year 2020 2030 2040 2050

Basis of Demand Projections Municipal; Self-supplied Domestic; Self-supplied Commercial County population growth rate Industrial; Mining Shale Gas Employment growth rate Work group estimates Thermoelectric Power Crop Irrigation Dept. of Energy, Energy Information Agency projections of power generation County-level trends in irrigated acres by crop type Livestock USDA national livestock projections growth rates Aquaculture; Duck Habitat Remain constant at present levels

Demand Technical Work Group Full Demand Work Group meeting December 17, 2012 Work Group members from each of the demand sectors have completed conference call(s) and had email updates and revisions to the initial methodologies Data availability did results in some “minor” changes to the original approach: Comments and additional research modified the driver (rate and cause of growth) or the water use factor (water use per “unit”) Different data sets have different values for the same or similar years Not all data sets have information for the years desired

Water Demand Sector • Municipal • Self-Supplied Domestic • Self-Supplied Commercial

Municipally-Supplied Demand Forecast Results: Statewide Steady increase in municipally-supplied water demands through 2050 Highest growth - Woods & Poole population projection Lowest growth – Arkansas Natural Resources Commission (ANRC) population projection 2050 water demands range from 449 mgd to 555 mgd Passive conservation reduces demand by 6% in 2050 Base Year to 2050 Percent Growth ANRC: 13% AIEA: 31% Woods & Poole: 40%

County Population Projections: Arkansas Institute for Economic Advancement (AIEA)Scenario 14

Municipal Water Demands by Water Planning Region (AIEA with Conservation) 600 Million Gallons per Day (MGD) 500 400 West-central Arkansas Southwest Arkansas 300 South-central Arkansas North Arkansas 200 East Arkansas 100 0 Base Year 2020 2030 2040 2050

Self-Supplied Domestic Residential water users not connected to a municipal system (people on individual wells) About 5% of the State’s population Demand driven by population USGS 2010 Report - self-supplied domestic gpcd values range from 80. 0 to 98. 2 and are different for each county Demand decline due to projected population decrease in counties with self-supplied domestic and passive conservation savings 2050 water demands range from 12. 3 mgd to 15. 3 mgd

Self-Supplied Domestic Demand by Region 16 Million Gallons per Day (MGD) 14 12 10 West-central Arkansas Southwest Arkansas 8 South-central Arkansas North Arkansas 6 East Arkansas 4 2 0 Base Year 2020 2030 2040 2050

Self-Supplied Commercial Water Demand Forecast

Self-Supplied Commercial Demand by Region 8 Million Gallons per Day (MGD) 7 6 5 West-central Arkansas Southwest Arkansas 4 South-central Arkansas North Arkansas 3 East Arkansas 2 1 0 Baseline 2020 2030 2040 2050

Water Demand Sector • • Thermoelectric Power Industrial Mining Shale Gas

Thermoelectric Energy Forecast

Thermoelectric Water Demand Forecast Results: Comparison of Withdrawals & Consumption 0. 3% are small water users typically natural gas with combustion turbine 1, 600 Million Gallons per Day (mgd) About 99. 7% of withdrawals for thermoelectric power generation are from surface water sources 1, 400 1, 200 1, 000 800 600 400 200 Base Year 2015 2020 2025 Withdrawals 2030 2035 Consumption 2040 2045 2050

Thermoelectric Water Demand by Region 1, 600 1, 400 Million Gallons per Day (MGD) 1, 200 1, 000 West-central Arkansas Southwest Arkansas 800 South-central Arkansas North Arkansas 600 East Arkansas 400 200 0 Base Year 2020 2030 2040 2050

Industrial Water Demand Forecast: Results Demand include both municipally-supplied and self-supplied industrial demands Industrial water demands decrease by 31% from Base Year to 2050 Decrease attributed to projected decline in manufacturing employment Demand declines in nearly all counties ↓ 31%

Industrial Water Demand by Region 350 Million Gallons per Day (MGD) 300 250 West-central Arkansas 200 Southwest Arkansas South-central Arkansas 150 North Arkansas East Arkansas 100 50 0 Baseline 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mining Water Demand Forecast: Results Forecast includes self-supplied mining demands and municipal water deliveries to mining customers Mining water demands forecasted to increase by 132% from the base year to 2050 Increase in demand is driven by projected increase in mining employment in those counties with base year mining water demands Silica sand, construction sand & gravel, and crushed stone mining are the primary water-using mineral resources in the state Dept. of Workforce Services Woods Poole

Mining Water Demand by Region 14 Million Gallons per Day (MGD) 12 10 West-central Arkansas 8 Southwest Arkansas South-central 6 North Arkansas East Arkansas 4 2 0 Baseline 2020 2030 2040 2050

Shale Gas Water Demands by Water Planning Region 12 Million Gallons per Day (MGD) 10 8 West-central Arkansas 6 North Arkansas East Arkansas 4 2 0 Baseline 2020

Water Demand Sectors • Crop Irrigation • Livestock • Aquaculture • Duck Hunting & Habitat Maintenance

Statewide Forecast of Irrigated Acreage Millions of Irrigated Acres 6 5 4 Other Cotton 3 Corn for grain Rice Soybeans 2 1 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 32

Statewide Irrigation Forecast in Acre-Feet per Year (AFY) � 14% increase from 2010 -2050 [9. 88 million AFY to 11. 25 million AFY] Irrigation Demand in Million AFY � 99% of growth experienced by 2030 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Other Cotton Corn for Grain Rice Soybeans 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Crop Irrigation Water Demands by Water Planning Region 10, 500 Million Gallons per Day (MGD) 10, 000 9, 500 West-central Arkansas Southwest Arkansas 9, 000 South-central Arkansas North Arkansas 8, 500 East Arkansas 8, 000 7, 500 Base Year 2020 2030 2040 2050

Livestock Water Demand Forecast 35 34% Groundwater 66% Surface Water Million Gallons per Day 30 25 20 Horses 12. 9 13. 2 14. 3 14. 7 Turkeys 15 Chickens Hogs and Pigs 10 5 Sheep and Goats 10. 9 11. 3 11. 4 Base Year 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 Beef Cattle Dairy Cows

Livestock Water Demand by Water Planning Region 35 Million Gallons per Day (MGD) 30 25 West-central Arkansas 20 Southwest Arkansas South-central Arkansas 15 North Arkansas East Arkansas 10 5 0 Base Year 2020 2030 2040 2050

Aquaculture Water Demand Forecast: Results � Total base year demands are 103. 43 mgd � About half is minnow production � By regulation, all aquaculture water comes from groundwater sources

Aquaculture Water Demand by Region Million Gallons per Day (MGD) 104. 0 103. 5 103. 0 102. 5 Southwest Arkansas 102. 0 North Arkansas East Arkansas 101. 5 101. 0 100. 5 100. 0 Base Year 2020 2030 2040 2050

Duck Hunting & Habitat Maintenance: Forecast � Duck Hunting Clubs: � 64% surface water � 36% groundwater � Habitat maintenance: � 98% surface water � 2% groundwater � Crop irrigation: � 26% surface water � 74% groundwater � Overall: � 60% surface water � 40% groundwater and

Duck Hunting & Habitat Maintenance Water Demands by Water Planning Region 270 Million Gallons per Day (MGD) 260 250 240 Southwest Arkansas 230 South-central Arkansas East Arkansas 220 210 200 190 Baseline 2020 2030 2040 2050

Demand Report Available on the Website Visit the Water Plan Website at: ARWater. Plan. Arkansas. gov Reports (left hand side) Send an e-mail to: Arkansas. Water@CDMSmith. com 41