Complexity perspectives on development Claudia Maldonado Trujillo Center

Complexity perspectives on development Claudia Maldonado Trujillo Center for Research and Teaching in Economics

Complexity theor(ies) “Contextual and embodied view of scientific knowledge. ” Morçöl Artificial intelligence Punctuated equilibria Post-positivist approaches Agent- based modeling Cognitive science Adaptive systems theory Chaos theory

Basic Tenets I. Systems interact with their environment: boundaries II. Components are interdependent: interactions III. Non-linearity and indeterminacy: minor changes can affect the system; grand schemes may not and viceversa. uncertainty

Basic Tenets IV. Complex systems are self-organizing (e. g. Bottom up, loose networks, etc. ) V. Perspectives included shape system through interactions. VI. Directioned development(s)/trajectories are elusive.

What does it mean?

Complex Thinking

What does it mean for development policy? • Appropiation, adaptation and contingency. (diverse perspectives key, small changes can be revolutionary) • Focus on interactions, not just factors. (Wider lens, finer vision (e. g. context subtleties). • Boundaries matter: who and what is considered in/ who and what is left behind. • Process is outcome. Sustainability as system resiliency.

Complexity and inclusion: elective affinity? • Multilevel, multistakeholder governance model in flux. • Development is socially construed, who gets a say matters! • Multiple perspectives & focus on real-time learning to meet goals. • Feedbacks are multidimensional: strong yet flexible monitoring is crucial. (eg. ITC)

Any ideas? • Principled action (equity and inclusion) vs. roadmaps. • Proto-Rawlsian standards to assess development progress (gender-sensitve and equity-based parameters for evauation) • Dispersion measures vs. averages to make equity weight in, look for underlying factors of structural inequality. • Mixed methods and disciplines, mixed actors, mixed indicators, mixed everything. • Mobilize and transfer context-based shared knowledge.

Good, bad & ugly • Unprecedented outreach behind SDGs. • Development networks: pivotal players for shift towards inclusion and equity (yes, all of you!) • Inclusive politics, technology & methodology can help but according to complexity theory, meeting targets is an “open question”, the plasticity of social systems is both a challenge and an opportunity.

The challenge • Politics of boundary expansion and inclusion of diverse perspectives. • Ask difficult questions: who are we leaving behind/what are we missing? • Look for policy ambiguity and unanticipated outcomes/developments/interactions. • Combine soft measures with standard indicators. • Accept uncertainty and indeterminacy.

Thank you! twitter: @cmaldona 2 @clear_la