Comparison of the 2008 and 2010 Snapshots of

Comparison of the 2008 and 2010 Snapshots of Tropical Cyclone R&D Dr. Frank Marks (NOAA) and Dr. Ron Ferek (Navy) Co-Chairs, Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research (WG/TCR) OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 1

History of WG/TCR • February 2005: Federal Coordinator formed Joint Action Group for Tropical Cyclone Research (JAG/TCR) • February 2007: JAG/TCR work culminated with publication of Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead • Two Tables in the Plan: § Table 4 -1: Operational Priorities of the TC Forecasting & Warning Centers § Table 5 -1: Research Needs in Atmospheric and Ocean Science • October 2008: First meeting of the WG/TCR OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 2

WG/TCR Objectives / Tasks • Keep Tables 4 -1 and 5 -1 updated § Table 4 -1: Ops priorities (became Table 1) § Table 5 -1: Research needs (became Table 2) • Map agency meteorological research efforts against TC research needs and operational priorities • Analyze / compare results • Update information at IHC OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 3

Research Needs Table 2

Operational Priorities • Table 1 § Ops priorities extracted from FY 09 JHT Announcement of Federal Funding Opportunity (AFFO) From Table 2

Operational Priorities • Table 1 § Ops priorities extracted from FY 09 JHT Announcement of Federal Funding Opportunity (AFFO) § Ops priorities from FY 11 JHT AFFO

Research Compilation Process • Tabulated each agency’s research contribution; man-years and $ § ~ 240 projects (NOAA, NASA, Navy, NSF, USACE, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation, and Enforcement) • Mapped man-years for each R&D activity to the Detailed Research Categories using Table 2 (see 1 st graph) • Mapped man-years to ops priorities using column in Table 1 (see 2 nd graph) Man-years 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 A 1 a A 1 b A 1 c A 1 d A 1 e A 1 f A 1 g A 1 h A 2 a A 2 b A 2 c A 2 d A 3 a A 3 b A 3 c A 3 d A 4 a A 4 b A 4 c A 5 a A 5 b A 6 B 1 B 2 B 3 a B 3 b B 3 c B 3 d B 3 e B 4 B 5 B 6 B 7 B 8 C 1 a C 1 b C 1 c C 2 C 3 Combined Agency Data Graphed to Detailed Research Categories 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Combined Agency Data Graphed to Ops Priorities 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 In Intensity / Structure Track Genesis QPF Surge Model Development [Seasonal] Obs te M Q R S S ui Fcs Sto Tra Gen Win Siz od P ad ST ea e d c r t ar s d e F e m / r a k o S /S Gra on ity ve nc E S F sis An tr l R c at d al al uc es Ch d O e D ffic urg st. D ie P t y v i u si an bs ec en e s re at nts rog s E a ge is cy s ns io em n To bl ol es s ns Im pr G OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 7

Comparison of 2008 Snapshot with 2010 Snapshot OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 8

Man-years by Research Category 2008 Snapshot (Total Man-years: 211) 2010 Snapshot (Total Man-years: 296) OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 9

Man-years by Agency 2008 Snapshot (Total Man-years: 211) 2010 Snapshot (Total Man-years: 296) OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 10

2008 Snapshot Total: $50, 155 K 2010 Snapshot Total: $76, 658 K Field Experiments: PREDICT, GRIP, IFEX, ITOP & Research Computer System (HFIP) OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research HFIP NOAA Total $23, 936 WG/TCR 11

Analysis of Tropical Cyclone R&D 2008 -2010 Comparison 2008 Snapshot 2010 Snapshot Total: 211 Man-years Total: 296 Man-years 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 HFIP 0 Seasonal Surge QPF Genesis Observations Track Model Development A 1 A 2 A 3 A 4 A 5 A 6 B 1 B 2 B 3 B 4 B 5 B 6 B 7 B 8 C 1 C 2 C 3 Intensity / Structure Seasonal Surge QPF Genesis Track Intensity / Structure A 1 A 2 A 3 A 4 A 5 A 6 B 1 B 2 B 3 B 4 B 5 B 6 B 7 B 8 C 1 C 2 C 3 Model Development Observations (HFIP Contribution: 75 man-years) OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 12

Research Needs Mapped onto Ops Priorities • On next two slides: § 2008 and 2010 comparisons of the research needs mapped onto ops priorities § Used ops priorities published in the FY 09 JHT AFFO

Research Needs Mapped onto Ops Priorities NHC / CPHC 2008 Snapshot 2010 Snapshot (FY 09 AFFO) Total: 211 Man-years Total: 296 Man-years 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 1 In 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 G S Fc S T te Imp ui r Ge Wi Siz Mo QP Rad ST Sea s t ns s ro da tr orm ack nes nd e/S de F ar ity ve nc /S Gra ona Ef S F is An tru l R c a e al Ch d O e D fic urg st t. die l P ys ctu s v Da nt ro an bs ec ien e r s i e s gs ta s En ge is cy io se n m To bl ol es s 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 In te ns Fc St Tr Ge W Si M QP Ra SS Se od F st or ac ne ind ze da T as d / m r r/S Gr on ity ove anc E S k F sis An Str el R c f u at ad al u d e f e a s Ch ic rg t ly ctu s. D ien Pr O D i si an bs e en e re vs at ts og s c ge En a is cy s io se n m To bl ol es s Im pr G ui OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 14

Research Needs Mapped onto Ops Priorities JTWC 2008 Snapshot 2010 Snapshot (FY 09 AFFO) Total: 211 Man-years 60 Total: 296 Man-years 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 G I G S ui Fcs Sto Tr Wi Mo QP Ra SS Se en mp en ize F d da rm ac nd de tr ar T G aso si rov es /S k n An l R /S r E n S ce ty F ed is tru ffi es ur cs at adi al a Ch O ct c l g. D en Pr De ie t y v u e si s an bs og re t at ci nc s En ge si a s s y se on m To bl ol es s In t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 In G S F te Imp Gen Size uid cs Sto Tra Win Mo QP Rad ST Sea de F ns ro e c r t d a / r m a k r/S Gr son nc E S ity ve sis Str Fc An l R f u e at adi al u d f e Ch O ct ic rg st aly s. D en Pr D i u si vs an bs re ec en e at ts og s ge is cy En a s io se n m To bl ol es s OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 15

Analysis of Tropical Cyclone R&D Closing Comments • Two snapshots that captured R&D activities § Represents the spectrum of R&D across the community § Research influenced by ops priorities; provides mechanism for essential feedback • With HFIP and four major field experiments, R&D increased markedly in 2010 snapshot compared to 2008 snapshot § Deltas between 2008 and 2010 not only reflect HFIP, but changing emphasis of field experiments • Intensity change is still #1 operational priority § Research (basic and applied) is still required, as this is a very difficult and complex problem OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 16

Analysis of Tropical Cyclone R&D • Users would like research community to take more of an interest in guidance decision tools • We have a process to: § Keep the operational priorities updated § Assess and evaluate how research is contributing to those priorities § Allow research managers to make informed decisions for future investments § Facilitate interagency collaboration and coordination • Starting to see interesting results from R&D and will see examples throughout the conference • Raises awareness of the importance of R 2 O • Will complete next snapshot in 2012 using new operational priorities (FY 11 JHT AFFO) OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 17

QUESTIONS? OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 18

BACKUPS

WG/TCR Dr. Frank Marks OAR/AOML/HRD (NOAA/DOC) Dr. Ronald Ferek ONR (Navy/DOD) Dr. Bradley Smull Physical & Dynamic Met. (NSF) Dr. Scott Braun GSFC (NASA) Dr. James Mc. Fadden OMAO/AOC (NOAA/DOC) Dr. Robert Rogers OAR/AOML/HRD (NOAA/DOC) Dr. Mark De. Maria NESDIS (NOAA/DOC) Lt Col Jonathan Talbot 53 rd WRS (AF/DOD) Mr. James Franklin NWS/NHC (NOAA/DOC) Mr. William (Kim) Curry HQ Navy (Navy/DOD) Mr. Bob Falvey Director, JTWC (AF/DOD) Ms. Robbie Hood OAR (NOAA/DOC) Dr. Bruce Ebersole U. S. Army COE (Army/DOD) Dr. Daniel Melendez NWS/OST (NOAA/DOC) Mr. Jeffrey Hawkins NRL (Navy/DOD) Dr. Alexis Lugo-Fernandez BOEMRE (DOI) Dr. James Goerss NRL (Navy/DOD) Lt Col Chris Cantrell HQ AF (AF/DOD) Dr. Gerald Heymsfield GSFC (NASA) Ms. Justyna Nicinska OAR (NOAA/DOC) Mr. Mark Welshinger OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 20

Research Needs Mapped onto Ops Priorities NHC / CPHC 2010 Snapshot (FY 11 AFFO) 60 Total: 296 Man-years 50 Man-years 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Q E Se Ra G M Im W G SS I Tr St Fc Si PF Pe xte co od e i as Chnte d a pr De uid o n z ne Ba rs nd st T ar ck e/ mo mp el d ci an rm on ov r G an nsi i e s s e s / S d A Sa Ef Fc ra is eli ten d C el ara ns t ed sio ce al Su n ge ty r ne c li fic di al uc co bl em t. st n Pr r m O e ys tu ns e t b en ge Da ie Sk at og bs To le o n i e t r o s ta ol s ill lo ns m s e cy s s gy us ul - ti-

Research Needs Mapped onto Ops Priorities JTWC 2010 Snapshot (FY 11 AFFO) 60 Total: 296 Man-years 50 Man-years 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 M E G Q Im St Se Ra SS Tr Si co od W F G I Pe xte P m o z pr en cs De uid ac i m e Chnte a da nd T e/ rm od pa l e F so Bas rsi nde ov k es tr E cis an G St r ns an nsi e r A / na eli ste d C F r l a S S c ed is ru ad co bl em ffi ion e na cs ge ty a u l P ne nce lim ct t. rg ns e t b ci ie O t ly ur Da en To ro bs n e Sk at en o mles s ts is e gs su u cy ols ill olo ta s lt g i- y-

2008 SNAPSHOT – FYs INCLUDED (SEE NEXT SLIDE) NSF FY 08 AND FY 09 NOAA FY 09 NAVY FY 08 NASA FY 08 AND FY 09 OTHER FY 09 2010 SNAPSHOT - # OF PROJECTS (BACKGROUND FOR SLIDE #5) NSF 39 NOAA 116 NAVY 50 NASA 31 OTHER 3 OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 23

Change from 2008 to 2010 in combined man-years by research category 25 2008 -10 change 20 HFIP QPF -5 A 2 A 3 Genesis A 1 Track 0 A 4 A 5 A 6 Seasonal 5 Surge 10 Intensity / Structure Man-years 15 B 1 B 2 B 3 B 4 B 5 B 6 B 7 B 8 C 1 C 2 C 3 Model Development -10 Observations OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 24