Communication Futures Alex Burns aburnsswin edu au 20

Communication Futures Alex Burns (aburns@swin. edu. au) 20 April 2006 Smart Internet Technology CRC

Agenda • Part 1: Communication Futures (CF) • History • Discourse: Futures Studies (FS) and Applied Foresight (AF) • Contexts and Frameworks • Part 2: Methodologies • Individual methodologies and practices • Part 3: Applications • Part 4: Professional Development • Professional Development issues Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 2

Part 1: Foundations

Why Study The Future? • Foreseeable Dangers and ‘Mega-Events’: • • ‘Challenger’ space shuttle disaster (Roger Boisjoly) Enron and corporate governance (Sherron Watkins) September 11 and counter-terrorism (John O’Neill) Cassandra Archetype: ‘early warnings’ yet ignored • ICT History and Future Visions • • J. C. R. Licklider and ‘human-machine’ symbiosis Doug Engelbart and interface design (GUI) Ted Nelson and Xanadu Tim Berners-Lee and the ‘Semantic Web’ Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 4

Challenger Launch Decision • Roger Boisjoly discovers leaks in primary seals. Morton Thiokol pressure about O-ring warning (Jan. 1986) • NASA and Morton Thiokol engineers discuss temperature forecasts. NASA over-rides ‘no launch’ decision (27 Jan. 1986) • At T+73 seconds Challenger explodes—killing all 7 crew members (28 Jan. 1986) Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 5

Sherron Watkins & Enron • Warned Enron’s Kenneth Lay of ‘an elaborate accounting hoax’ (15 Aug. 2001) • Enron files for Chapter 11 (2 Dec. 2001) • Individual investors lose millions, Arthur Andersen collapses • Corporate Governance and Triple Bottom Line (TBL) • The Smartest Guys In The Room (2005) book and film • A Conspiracy of Fools (2005) Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 6

John O’Neill & Al Qaeda • FBI began tracking Al Qaeda in mid-1990 s • Investigated first WTC (1993) and USS Cole (2000) bombings • Warned US Government of global terror networks • May have prevented September 11 terrorist attacks on United States • PBS Frontline episode ‘The Man Who Knew’ Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 7

Anticipatory Not Predictive • Futures Studies is popularly believed to be about prediction • Retro-causal (‘what if? ’) rather than predictive (‘this will happen by x’) • ‘The cause lies in the future’ – Heinz von Foerster • Future ‘possibility’ space to consider implications for now • Conjectural thinking about evaluated possibilities (Bertrand de Jouvenal) • The ‘sense of context’ to model different choices (Mihai Nadin); our ‘sixth sense’ (Kees van der Heijden) • Epistemology (ways of knowing) becomes crucial Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 8

Strategic Foresight and Futures Studies • Strategic Foresight: • • ‘The ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent, and viable forward view whose insights can be used in organizationally useful ways. ’ (Richard Slaughter, Swinburne University) Critical Futures Studies: • ‘The attempt to generate new knowledge about the construction of human futures. ’ (Richard Slaughter, Swinburne University) • A type of transdisciplinary strategic thinking rather than traditional strategic planning (links with Governance and Knowledge Management) • Futures Studies is not crystal ball-gazing, pop imagery or linear extrapolations • Goes beyond ‘future of. . . ’ studies and single-point forecasts Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 9

Futures Studies: Introductory Examples • The following are introduced early on in Swinburne University’s Strategic Foresight program: • • The 200 -Year Present (Elise Boulding) The Futures Cone: possible, probable and preferable futures The Clock of the Long Now (Stewart Brand) The Calvert-Henderson indicators (Hazel Henderson) ‘Tsunamis of Change’ (Jim Dator) Mindsets: open versus closed thinking (Milton Rokeach) The sustainability ethic as an FS practical realm Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 10

Futures Studies: Key Texts • The following are often used in Swinburne University’s Strategic Foresight program: • Richard Slaughter’s Futures Beyond Dystopia (2004) and Futures for the Third Millennium (1999) • The multi-volume Knowledge Base of Futures Studies (3 rd edition on CD in 2005) edited by Slaughter, Sohail Inyatullah & Jose M. Ramos • Sohail Inayatullah’s Questioning The Future (2 nd edition, 2005) • Peter Schwartz’s The Art of the Long View (1991) on scenarios • Peter Senge’s The Fifth Discipline (1990) on systems thinking • Ken Wilber’s A Theory of Everything (2001) Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 11

Communication Futures: Definition • Interdisciplinary discourse to examine ICT strategic landscape • A strategic context and problem domain that draws on Futures Studies (theory) and Applied/Strategic Foresight (application) • Places activities in forward-looking context • Inputs to corporate strategy and policymaking cycles • Major themes: • The evolution of socio-technical systems • Technology trajectories and their social impacts • Responses by societies, culture and political actors Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 12

Communication Futures: Key Studies • Influential CF Studies: • • • SIT CRC’s Smart Internet 2010 report (2005) ACA’s Vision 2020 scenarios exercise (2004) Networking the Nation (1997) Networking Australia’s Future (1994) Telecom Australia’s Telecom 2000 Report (1975) • Policy Briefs (Communication Futures & Futures Studies): • • DCITA’s Digital Action Plan for Australia (2006) Communications Policy & Research Forum Australian Treasury’s Inter-generational Report (2002 -2003) CSIRO National Energy Scenarios Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 13

Technology Foresight • • Domain application of national Science & Technology Foresight Mobilisation for ICT sectoral development Builds collective vision and social imaging for growth Regional trade blocs and comparative advantage (David Ricardo) • Battelle Science & Technology • Singapore Infocomm Foresight 2015 • Malaysia Multimedia Corridor • OECD Foresight Forum Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 14

Major Institutions • ‘Big Science’: Bell Laboratories, NASA space program, Atlas rockets, ARPANET, Human Genome Project • Defence and Civil Society Planning: RAND and Hudson Institutes (Herman Kahn on nuclear war: ‘thinking about the unthinkable’), Arlington Institute, Institute for the Future, Global Business Network • Technology Research: Xerox PARC, MIT Media Lab, AT&T Labs, Microsoft Research, BT, Google Labs • Thomas P. Hughes’ Rescuing Cassandra (1998) as key study • Stewart Brand’s The Media Lab (1987) on MIT’s initiatives • Michael Hiltzik’s Dealers of Lightning (1999) on Xerox PARC Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 15

Contexts and Frameworks: Overview • Three introductory paradigms: • Normative: pragmatic, goal-directed, conventional planning • Critical: evaluates agendas, norms, values and worldviews • Emancipatory: idealist and identity, oppositional to normative • Three CF outlooks (Warren Wagar): • Techno-liberal (libertarian and ‘free enterprise’) • Radicals (Democratic Left and Social Marxist) • Countercultural (New Age and Eco-feminist) • Each gives a ‘true but partial’ map of reality (Ken Wilber); however, ‘the map is not the territory’ (Alfred Korzybski) Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 16

Framework 1: Pragmatic Futures • Dominant context in Western Futures Studies work • The norm for business and commercial applications • Timeframe: 3 -5 years • Knowledge Interests: Technical-Instrumental • Discourses & Methodologies: Trends, Environmental Scanning, Scenario Planning, Business Intelligence • Example Book: Gary Hamel and C. K. Prahalad’s Competing for the Future (1995) Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 17

Framework 2: Progressive Futures • Emerged in late 1960 s and early 1970 s in the West • The norm for academic applications in arts/humanities and ‘post-normal’ science (Jerry Ravetz) • Timeframe: 20 -50 years and longer • Knowledge Interests: Emancipatory • Discourses & Methodologies: Critical Futures Studies, Science & Technology Studies, Simulations, Systems Thinking • Example Book: Hazel Henderson’s Building A Win-Win World: Life Beyond Global Economic Warfare (1996) Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 18

Framework 3: Alternative Global Futures • Emerged in late 1970 s and 1980 s in the West • Anthropological, cross-cultural, post-colonial and postmodernist • Timeframe: 50 -100 years and longer • Knowledge Interests: Emancipatory, Multitude • Discourses & Methodologies: Causal Layered Analysis, Anticipatory Action Research and Anthroplogy, Post-Colonial Studies • Example Book: Ziauddin Sardar’s Rescuing All Our Futures: The Future of Futures Studies anthology (1999) Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 19

Framework 4: Civilisational Futures • Cyclical themes from 1960 s to present • Deals with civilisations, cultural scripts, social imaging • Timeframe: 100 years, cyclical/spiral models of temporality • Knowledge Interests: Deep Time, Gaian, Macrohistorical, Dominator/Partnership paradigm (Riane Eisler) • Discourses & Methodologies: Causal Layered Analysis, Social Imaging, Macrohistorical, Peace Studies, Deep Ecology • Example Book: Johan Galtung and Sohail Inayatullah’s Macrohistory and Macrohistorians (1997) Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 20

Framework 4: Integral Futures • Cyclical themes from 1960 s to present • Breadth and depth, different ways of knowing, ‘transcend yet include’, All quadrants all levels (AQAL) • Timeframe: The extended Now • Knowledge Interests: Transpersonal, Integrative, Pluralistic • Discourses & Methodologies: Transpersonal and Integral Psychology, Integral Methodological Pluralism, Metascanning, Contemplative/Meditative practices • Example Book: Ken Wilber’s Sex Ecology Spirituality (1995) and Integral Psychology (1998) Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 21

Framework 5: Embodied Foresight • Has emerged over 2003 -2006 as novelty and synthesis • Meta-methodology: Individual practitioner as holonomic • Timeframe: Self-reflexive awareness of the Aion/Aeon • Knowledge Interests: Anticipatory, Enactive, Self-Reflexive • Discourses & Methodologies: Anticipatory Action Learning, Enactive Cognition, Integral Futures, Self-Reflexive methods, Trialogues, Presence • Example Book: Senge, Scharmer, Jaworski and Flowers’ Presence: Human Purpose and the Field of the Future (2004) Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 22

Part 2: Methodologies

Methodology History • 1950 s Forecasts & Trends Analysis • 1960 s Delphi Method & Social Indicators • 1970 s Global Forecasts & Systems Models • 1980 s Scenarios & Risk Management • 1990 s Layered & Depth Methods • 2000 s Integral, Multi-Civilizational & Embodied Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 24

Strategic Landscape • Defined by critical uncertainties, compounded risks and systemic crises (Ulrich Beck, Anthony Giddens, Zygmunt Bauman, Arjun Appuradai) • • Risk as defining factor in globalisation (Beck) Structuration model of agency-structure debate (Giddens) Liquid modernity and reconnaissance zones (Bauman) Socio-, techno- flows (Appuradai) • Neo-liberal globalization, deregulation and privatization • ‘Information is bound up in uncertainty’ (Norbert Wiener) • ‘Knowns, known unknowns & unknowns’ (Donald Rumsfeld on the 2003 Iraq War and WMD debate) • Hardin Tibbs’ model of business insight and competition Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 25

Taxonomy of Futures Methods • Predictive (‘expertise and colonization’): • Forecasting (linear/extrapolative), Trends, Data-Mining, Simulations, Delphi Method, Social Indicators, ‘Inevitable Surprises’ (Ageing, Demographics, the Realist tradition in Geopolitics), Technology Mapping, Pattern Recognition • Interpretative (‘agency, structure, relationship’): • Environmental Scanning, Scenarios (technology/user), Technology Assessment, Strategic Anticipation, National Science & Technology exercises, Business Intelligence, Blind-Spot Analysis, Wild Cards (‘high impact low probability’ events), Visioning • Critical (‘undefining the future by questioning assumptions’): • Causal Layered Analysis, Critical Futures Studies, T-Cycle, Macrohistory, Integral Studies, Action Learning Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 26

Methodological Issues • Futures Studies has a transdisciplinary knowledge base • Potentially an ‘infinite toolkit’ of resources (Richard Slaughter) • Integral Methodological Pluralism as framework (Ken Wilber) • The emergence of meta-methodologies • ‘Methodological renewal’ as an imperative (Richard Slaughter) • Challenges: • • Difference between method, methodology, process, and practice Role of commercial interests and secrecy Cultural transmission of methodologies between practitioners ‘True Believer’ (Eric Hoffer) interpretation that frames specific methodologies as the solution to problem domain Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 27

Creativity Techniques • Problem domain application of Applied Foresight • Synergies with humour, pattern recognition, visualisation • Lateral Thinking, Six Thinking Hats, Po (Edward de Bono) • Mind Mapping (Tony and Barry Buzan) • Synectics (William J. J. Gordon) • Brainstorming and Concept Mapping • Multiple Intelligences (Howard Gardner) • ‘Flow’ states of optimal psychology (Mihaly Csikzentmihalyi) Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 28

Forecasting and Trends • Forecasting developed in 1940 s and 1950 s • Econometrics: linear, extrapolative, time-series, statistical • Trends developed in 1950 s and 1960 s • 3 -5 year time-span rather than fads • Social Indicators movement in 1960 s sociology • Cross-impacts, social impacts • Applications • • Demographic/psychographic profiling and data-mining SRI’s Values and Lifestyles monitor (VALS II) John Naisbitt’s Megatrends (1982) Alvin Toffler’s Future Shock (1970) and The Third Wave (1980) Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 29

Environmental Scanning • Environmental Scanning developed in 1960 s and 1970 s • Links to business strategy, portfolio management, competitive intelligence and media monitoring • Organisational ability to track external signals and ‘hits’ • Swinburne Foresight Planning & Review (FPR): • • Established in 2000 to conduct university-wide ES 15 to 20 -year timeframe: long-term trends and impacts Maree Conway (www. universityfutures. org) was FPR head Major scenario planning exercise (2002) on higher education Prospect bulletin, scanning ‘hits’ database and workshops Replaced by Strategic Planning and Quality (SPQ) Unit in 2005 Statement of Direction 2015 (Swinburne) Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 30

Wild Cards • ‘High impact low probability events’ (i. e. deals with blindspots, warning signals) • Can be foreseen: pre-September 11 intelligence hearings • Surfaces blind-spots and assumptions in trends analysis • Popularised by Arlington Institute and John Petersen’s Out of the Blue (1999) • Links to Beck’s risk sociology, chaos/complexity sciences, simulations and systems thinking • Used to test decision-making under stress and in high-velocity environments (Cass R. Sunstein) Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 31

Scenario Planning • Different models in early 1960 s, early 1970 s and 1980 s • Synonymous with Futures Studies and Visioning for many • Key figures: Herman Kahn, Pierre Wack, Peter Schwartz • Popularised by the Global Business Network, Royal Dutch Shell’s unit and Schwartz’s Art of the Long View (1991) • Extended by Art Kleiner, Stewart Brand Jay Ogilvy • Different traditions: Prospective (France), ICT Use Cases • Problems: GBN’s scenario logics deal with 2 -3 key factors, chaos/complexity models are a challenge, groupthink (Irving Janis), mirroring, ethical dimensions in application Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 32

GBN’s Scenario Planning Process • 1. Identify the focal issue or decision • 2. Identify key forces, trends and scanning ‘hits’ • 3. List the driving forces • 4. Rank key factors & driving forces by importance and uncertainty (choose 2 or 3 that will form 2 x 2 axis) • 5. Select scenario logics: create axes for key factors • 6. Flesh out the scenarios: narratives • 7. Explore implications, assumptions, blind-spots • 8. Select leading indicators and signposts Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 33

Causal Layered Analysis • Developed by Sohail Inayatullah in the early-to-mid 1990 s • Post-structuralist theory of knowledge (Michel Foucault, William Irwin Thompson, P. R. Sarkar, Fred Polak and others) • Useful to ‘surface’ hidden assumptions and current frameworks • Can be used to evaluate and validate scenario ‘logics’ and narratives: provides vertical depth to horizontal tools • Four layers: • • Pop: ‘litany’, sound-bites, media imagery Social Causes: problem-oriented analysis and policy Epistemes/Worldviews: ways of knowing, truth and values Myth/Metaphor: Deep symbols, narratives and structures Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 34

Simulations • Developed with computers in 1960 s and 1970 s • Jay Forrester’s work on systems dynamics as pivotal influence • Donella and Dennis Meadows’ World-3 model in The Limits To Growth (1972) created controversy for The Club of Rome • Domain applications in econometric modelling, environmental sustainability, financial services • Adopted by business for innovation and war games • Michael Schrage’s Serious Play (2000) on innovation cases • Videogame designers: Will Wright (Sim City and The Sims), Sid Meier (Civilization), Peter Molyneux (Black & White) Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 35

Systems Thinking • Deals with large-scale complexity, emergent behaviour, interdependencies, whole-systems views, cybernetics • Links with action learning and simulations • Surfaces assumptions, mental models and cause-effect relationships (balancing and reinforcing loops) • Ludwig van Bertalanffy’s General Systems Thinking (1968) • Popularised by Peter Senge’s The Fifth Discipline (1990) which also dealt with action learning and organisations • Systems archetypes such as ‘overshoot and collapse’, ‘shifting the burden’, ‘fixes that fail’, ‘escalation’, ‘accidental adversaries’ and ‘Tragedy of the Commons’ Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 36

Action Learning • Has evolved from anthropology, cybernetics, education • Adopted in MBA and postgraduate programs as pedagogy • Concerned with ‘learning how to learn’ and knowledge transfer • Theory Action Review cycles (aka Kolb learning loop) • Skills: unconscious incompetence, conscious incompetence and conscious competence (Argyris) • Key figures: David Kolb, Donald Schon, Chris Argyris, Humberto Maturana, Francisco Varela, Peter Senge, Otto Scharmer • Enactive Cognition consciousness model (Maturana & Varela): ‘All knowing is doing and all doing is knowing’ Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 37

Macrohistory • Histories of social systems, patterns of change (nomothetic, diachronic): individual, social, civilisational, world-systems • Deep structure models of what changes and what doesn’t • Linear, cyclical and spiral metaphors/models of temporality • Johan Galtung and Sohail Inayatullah’s Macrohistory and Macrohistorians (1997) compares 20 macrohistorians • Exploration of different cultural-historical epistemes • Each can be used to isolate key variables for discussion • Imposes limits on what can be created in the future Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 38

Part 3: Applications

Yourdon, Edward. Death March (2 nd ed. ), Prentice Hall PTR, Upper Saddle River NJ, 2003. Death March projects: ∙ The norm for IT not the exception ∙ High-profile BHAG projects ∙ Budget, resource & estimation limits ∙ Unrealistic deadlines by 2 x or more ∙ Critical Chain and Systems Thinking ∙ Project ‘flight simulators’ Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 40

Disruptive Technologies • Professor at Harvard University and founder of the consulting firm Innosight LLC • ‘Thought leader’ on Disruptive Innovation • Promoted by Intel’s Andrew S. Grove • Author of The Innovator’s Dilemma (1999), The Innovator’s Solution (2003), and Seeing What’s Next (2004) • Focuses on industry and market analysis • Disruptive vs. Sustaining Technologies • Applies insights to e-health, financial services, and telecommunications domains • Deals with firm resources allocation and decisionmaking, not just ‘killer app’ technologies Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 41

Pattern Recognition • Mercer’s Adrian Slywotzky has collated over 20 generic patterns in Value Migration (1996), Profit Patterns (1998) and subsequent books • Pattern Recognition and ‘learning how to learn’ • Business Designs: “a totality of customer selection, market positioning, business processes and profit capture” • Challenges the idea that markets/industries are caught in macro patterns such as Disintermediation: value networks are fluid, signalling, counter-moves • Provides a context to integrate environmental scanning and organisational learning • Applied in financial services as Strategic Anticipation Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 42

Augustine, Sanjiv. Managing Agile Projects, Addison Wesley, Upper Saddle River NJ, 2005. • Agile Project Management rules • • • Organic Teams Guiding Vision Simple Rules Open Information Light Touch Adaptive Leadership Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 43

Cockburn, Alistair. Crystal Clear, Addison Wesley, Upper Saddle River NJ, 2005. • A methodology for small teams: • • Frequent Delivery Reflective Improvement Osmotic Communication Personal Safety Focus Easy Access to Expert Users A Technical Environment with Automated Tests, Configuration Management, and Frequent Integration Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 44

Part 4: Professional Development

University Postgraduate Courses • Postgraduate programs: • • Swinburne University of Technology Sunshine Coast University Central Queensland University Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Sydney • Tamkang University (Taiwan) • University of Houston, Clear Lake (US) • Manoa school at University of Hawaii (US) • Survey of Futures in Higher Education (2003) by Jose M. Ramos (Swinburne University alumnus, WFSF) Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 46

Professional Organisations • Futures Studies has several professional organisations: • World Future Society (WFS): US-based, pragmatic, technology, 50, 000 members at peak in late 1980 s • World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF): diverse global membership, critical/emancipatory and civilisational, several hundred members • Association of Professional Futurists (APF): US-based, spearheaded by Dow’s Andy Hines, professional development • Swinburne University’s AFI Alumni group Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 47

Professional Models • Professional certification in specific methods • Proprietary-based, e. g. GBN’s scenarios methodology • European classical model of study with Teacher • Access to domain experience and insights • Often reflects the Critical/Emancipatory tradition in FS • Medieval Guild model of professional development • Closer to an artistic craft than an empirical science • Novice, Journeyman and Master phases • Links to Action and Self-Reflexive modes of research Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 48

Professional Qualities • Communications Futures practitioners will hopefully develop the following professional qualities: • • Cognitive complexity and pattern recognition Insights grounded in both intellectual inquiry and practice Appreciative inquiry, multiple intelligences, ways of knowing Radical doubt and conscientization (Paulo Freire) Can deal with ambiguous information without polarisation Self-reflexive awareness of biases and blind-spots Awareness of the ‘knowing-doing’ gap, groupthink, mirroring Dated 20 April 2006 The Disruptive Internet Stream (NGIU) 49

Questions?