COMmunicating UNcertainty In Key Official Statistics Dario Buono

COMmunicating UNcertainty In Key Official Statistics Dario Buono, European Commission, Eurostat, dario. buono@ec. europa. eu WG Methodology 8 April 2019, Luxembourg

What is Uncertainty? Definition by D. Piccolo at NTTS 2019 To measure it, 3 dimension 1. Subjective indecision 2. Heterogenity 3. Predictability

incredible certitude ≈ (un)informed decision making

COMUNIKOS An Eurostat research initiative aiming to conduct a review of the current practices in measuring and communicating uncertainty of disseminated data, and to study the latest developments in the field and their applicability to official statistics. Expected result: enhanced recommendations to tackle the misinterpretation, due to errors or uncertainties, of the information the statistics reveal.

What? Challenging Output: Ø - review and categorise the different sources of uncertainty relevant in the production of official statistics and identify their impact on the disseminated data; Ø - review the methods and metrics used in official statistics to measure uncertainties, and the methods used in other scientific fields (e. g. physics, meteorology, etc. ); ü - propose new methods /metrics to present uncertainties based on the review of existing sources and methods; ü - case study: uncertainties in scanner data; ü - communicate the progress and results of the project

COMUNIKOS communication • ‘Information is giving out; communication is getting through’ CROS portal: all related documents are available at Eurostat Collaboration in Research and Methodology for Official Statistics portal

Thank you for the attention! Follow us on social media: @comunikos • COMUNIKOS Project Contact: https: //twitter. com/comunikos