Communicating Technical Analysis to a Non Technical Audience

Communicating Technical Analysis to a Non -Technical Audience University of King’s College July 2016

Why do We Have a PBO? Origin • 2006 Federal Accountability Act Purpose • To promote transparency and credibility to the government’s fiscal forecasting and budgeting Ultimate goals • Promote confidence in federal fiscal management • Foster trust in government

Key Features of Economic Data Backward Looking • Usually all data are published with a lag, so you are looking in the review mirror Subject to Revision • Most economic data will be revised multiple times, sometimes over several years Not Everything is Measured • The framework for economic data collection is Statistics Canada’s surveys – always data gaps

How We Convey Technical Material Accessibility • All analysts directly respond to email, phone calls and texts in a timely manner (no comms) Multiple Mediums • Each technical analysis will have a formal report, summary, presentation, blog, tweet and briefing session Transparency • Stakeholders (Parliamentarians, media, citizens) can have as much access as they like (no ATIP required)

Common Challenges Numbers ≠ Intent • Sometimes there are very good explanations for why things didn’t turn out as anticipated Assumptions Drive Results • Reasonable people can make different assumptions and arrive at different results – nobody is wrong Forecasts are Always Wrong • But hopefully they are wrong for predictable reasons