Common cause common solutions in East Asian region

Common cause, common solutions in East Asian region Changing Climate Change & Energy Policy and Politics in Japan Oct. 19, 2010 Tetsu IIDA Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies (Tokyo, Japan) tetsu@isep. or. jp

Common cause Climate change Energy poverty Peak oil risk Oil and war 1

1500000 50000 100000 0 0 -100000 n -300000 • Strong economy & industries -1500000 -400000 -200000 -500000 0 -250000 • Leading renewable technologies rt im po n tio Pr o du c -500000 -600000 • Enough investment money 2 im tio du c -200000 Pr o KTOE im po n tio du c -100000 Pr o KTOE 1000000 rt • Poor solutions for climate change -50000 po • Poor energy security 2000000 rt Common but differential risk & benefit

Two different view 3

Changing world after COP 15 44

From “Carbon flat-land” to “Renewable revolution” - Negative response - Political difficulty - “Myth” & dillusion - Progressive development - Economically positive - Paradigm change 6

Myth of top-down delusion for nuclear 7

Myth of top-down view on nuclear Now ？ 8

（GW） Global reality of renewable Data from: GWEA, IAEA, Photon, Platts, 9

Future scenario of nuclear “renaissance” Source : Energy Watch Group EWG-Paper No. 1/2006 Dec 2006 10

Contract price Infrastructure Areva provisions Siemens provisions Areva claims on TVO claims on Areva nuc Start with fixed price Accumulated Input data G€ 3. 2 0. 5 2. 4 1. 2 1. 0 2. 4 Year: Assumed annual pay Accumulated including interest Interest during construction G€ 3. 2 3. 7 6. 1 7. 3 8. 3 10. 7 2005 1. 0 Interest rate Total cost excl TVO claims 0. 1 8. 3 Total incl TVO and interest Annual electricity production Investment Annuity factor Annual cost Capital cost 14. 3 12 14. 3 0. 1 1. 43 119 Siemens escaped (2009. 1) Areva financial crisis 2006 1. 0 2. 2 2007 1. 0 3. 4 2008 1. 0 4. 8 2009 1. 0 6. 3 2010 1. 0 8. 0 2011 1. 0 9. 8 2012 1. 0 11. 9 0. 10 0. 22 0. 34 0. 48 0. 63 0. 80 0. 98 TWh G€ G€ €/MWh G€ G€ 3. 56

Historical 2010 - Solar and Nuclear at Crossroad US cent (2010)/k. Wh Nuclear Solar PV (Source) John O. Blackburn and Sam Cunningham, “Solar and Nuclear Costs — The Historic Crossover - Solar Energy is Now the Better Buy”, NC WARN, (July 2010) 13

From “Wedge” to “ 100% Renewables” Typical “Wedge” Scenario 100% Renewables (IEA Blue Scenario 2009) (EREC 2010) 14

EU Power Shift (2000→ 2008) 15

“Big shift” toward 100% Renewables last 6 European Climate Forum months European Renewable Energy Council IIASA, Pw. C, PIK 14 th April German Advisory Council on the Environment (SRU) 5 th May Greenpeace International 15 th April German Federal Environment Agency (UBA) 7 th July 16

During past four years. . . 2004 -2009 ØAnnual investment in new renewable energy capacity up 500% - to $150 billion in 2009 17

“Vision” become “Reality” source: EWEA 18

“Vision” become “Reality” source: Desertec, Gobitec 19

Innovative policy to connect the grid Ø share the risk & benefit for future “energy community”

Start small but really, and create evolutional process Creating the process of positive social innovation Global change Negotiation by national interest Mobilize other cities, regions, nationals Green knowledge transfer Small social Local initiative innovation National policy response Further policy innovation Wrong direction Low awareness Negative feedback for local Lack of political will Bottom line agreement

2009 new government promised to introduce FIT policy arena • Political agenda of energy-climate Democrats Mid-term target - 25% from 1990 - Primary energy : 5% => 13%(20) RE policy and FIT - El share ; 9% => 24% (20) LDP -15% from 2005 ( - 8% from 1990) -Energy consump: 8. 2% => 20%(20) * but number is deception - FIT for all RE - El share ; 0. 3% => 1. 63% (14) - RPS should abandon - FIT for only house PV (draft) - RPS should keep Cap & trade Carbon tax Introduce by 2012 No plan 22

Solar PV policy history in Japan 23

One year after historical change of the Government Prime minister GHG terget 25% ? % Cap & trade C&T C? &T? Carbon tax ? Renewable energy FIT ? 25% 24

Political structure of Climate policy 2009� 2010� Cabinet office (Inter-ministerial meeting & task force) Mo. Envi (Roadmap 2020/2050) METI (National Energy Strategy 2030) 25

Political structure of energy & climate issue Desired Model Politics Knowlegde Meso Sub-politics Policy Ritual politics Burea-politics Knowlegde Vested politics policy Coverage by Knowledge community Norm Coverage by Knowledge community Macro Situation in Japan ？ Micro Reality Result Goal ？ 26

Political structure of FIT to promote solar and Attitude toward FIT/RE renewable Positive Negative / reluctant METI (Jurisdiction of FIT/Energy) Electric monopolies Mo. E (Jurisdiction of climate change) Industries NGOs General public 27

Renewable into mainstream - Solar PV - German success story with FIT policy expansion 28

Solar PV policy history in Japan 29

Losing production share of Japan’s PV makers 30

Market pull strategy – regional energy cooperation これまでの「エネルギーの地産地消」 Investment Money flow Green energy flow 32

Local initiative could mobilize national/global politics • ICLEI • • • • C 40 EU initiative Covenant of Mayors ISCI : International Solar City Initiative THE U. S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement Governors’ Global Climate Summit WCI, RGGI Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network FEDARENE Energie-Cites Isle. Net REN 21 IRENA 環境自治体会議 環境首都ネットワーク ・・・ 33

Network Globally, Act Locally toward Sustainable Solar Future UN, CSD, UNFCCC and their summits G 8 IRENA National-level Cooperation and action REN Alliance WWEA, WBA, IHA, ISES and IGA Matrix of case studies Gleneagles Dialogue Negotiated comprehensive but general outcome JPol, MDG’s, CSD 15 Tech-Dev Initiatives e. g. NEET Country Coalition e. g. JREC Project partnership e. g. REEEP, GVEP, PCIA, AP 6 REN 21 High-level Policy Network Technology specific partnerships e. g. GBEP Source: P. H. Suding and P. Lempp 2007: 8, modified. Compilation of Programs RE conferences: Renewables 2004, BIREC, WIREC, DIREC … Voluntary Commitments e. g. IAP, Pledge Process ICLEI Local Renewables Local RE conference: Local RE Freiburg, TOLREC 2009 EU Covenant of Mayors ISCI International Solar Cities 34

Paradigm change of energy 20 th century 21 st century Centralized Distributed Top down Networking Nuke & fossil RE & EE & IT Technology Push Market & social Pull Industrial society Knowledge society

Triple decoupling for green economy welfare Human development Equity & justice Peace GDP, employment economy Local development Energy service Welfare of human beings Economy （quality improvement） Energy service Lighting, heating, Motor, IT etc. Economy saturation 2 nd energy El, gas, heat, etc. Energy reduce Energy resource Oil, uranium, sun, wind etc. Environmental impanct 39

Concluding remarks • Energy and climate must be one of serious common cause in East Asian region • Top-down approach might create more difficulty rather than solution • Bottom-up type of innovation and evolution, such as renewable energy and local government initiatives, might offer possible solutions • In order to break through and to facilitate, global and regional networking might contribute 40

Thank you ! Contact; Tetsunari IIDA tetsu@isep. or. jp 41