Commodities How to Invest in the New Bull

Commodities: How to Invest in the New Bull Market Presented by: David Cox, CFA, CMT, FCSI, FMA, BMath Portfolio Manager April 29, 2014 The National Club, Toronto, ON

What Do I Do? § Provide clients with a way to comfortably grow and protect wealth irrespective of the underlying state of global investment markets § Offer a comprehensive wealth planning approach 2

Who Am I? § Bachelor of Mathematics – University of Waterloo § My family recently relocated to Guelph after 13 years in B. C. § One of 206 dual holders, globally, of both the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designations § Passionate about the investment markets, skiing, golfing, wine, poker and music 3

My Beliefs § Buy & Hold DOES NOT work § Stocks/markets/assets go through bullish (rising) periods, which are followed by bearish (falling) periods – extract profits regularly § Holding equities in a bear market/downtrend is akin to financial suicide § ANYTHING is possible § Small losses are preferred to big losses 4

My Research Process Fundamental Technical My Process Macro Economic Quantitative 5

CRB: Definition § Source: Thompson 6

4 -Year Big Picture § Source: Metastock 7

Peak To Trough § Source: Metastock 8

2014: Commodities § A new start: §Coffee = +51. 3% §Natural Gas =+22. 8% §Nickel = +13. 9% §Crude Oil (WTI) = +4. 4% §Cotton =+4. 3% §Zinc = +3. 4% §Lumber = -2. 4% §Gold = -3. 4% §Aluminum = -3. 6% §Sugar = -3. 8% §Silver = -8. 9% §Copper = -9. 1% § § 6 Month Returns to March 31, 2014 Thompson, Reuters 9

U. S. Stocks vs. CRB § Source: Metastock 10

Gold Prices: Weekly § Source: Metastock 11

Coal Prices: Weekly § Source: Metastock 12

Copper Prices: Weekly § Source: Metastock 13

Agriculture Prices: Weekly Source: Metastock 14

TSX vs. World Source: Metastock 15

TSX: New Life Source: www. stockcharts. com 16

TSX Energy vs. US Energy Source: www. stockcharts. com 17

Emerging vs. World Source: Metastock 18

Country Checkup Country Russia (MSCI) Materials Weight (%) Energy Weight (%) Estimated Commodity % 9. 3% 57. 4% 66. 7% Canada (TSX Composite) 12. 2% 26. 5% 38. 7% Brazil (MSCI) 15. 7% 14. 2% 30. 1% Australia (MSCI) 18. 2% 5. 6% 23. 8% 3. 5% 10. 2% 13. 7% U. S. (S&P 500) Source: MSCI 19

Commodity ETFs Source: www. stockcharts. com 20

Sector Checkup Country Cdn Materials (XMA-T) US Materials (XLB-US) Metals & Mining 68. 1% 14. 9% Chemicals 26. 9% 74. 1% Paper & Forest Products 3. 4% Containers & Packaging 1. 5% 6% Construction Materials 0% 1. 5% Source: i. Shares, SPDR 21

U. S. Materials vs. World Source: Metastock 22

XMA: T – Top Holdings § 14. 9% Potash Corp. § 11. 0% Barrick Gold § 10. 5% Goldcorp § 6. 8% Agrium § 5. 2% First Quantum Minerals § 5. 0% Teck Resources § 4. 2% Silver Wheaton § 3. 5% Yamana Gold § 3. 4% Franco Nevada § 3. 2% Methanex Source: i. Shares 23

ETF Performance Screen Source: Metastock 24

Commodity ETFs § DBC-US § DJP-US § DBA-US § JJG-US § JJS-US § GLD-US § SLV-US 25

Commodity Stock ETFs § GDX-US – Gold § KOL-US - Coal § SLX-US – Steel § XME-US - Mining § MOO-US – Agriculture/Fertilizer § XES-US – Energy Services § NLR-US – Nuclear § TAN-US - Solar 26

Are the Stocks Leading? § Look at the relative strength comparative charts 27

Energy vs. World Source: Metastock 28

Global Metals vs. World Source: Metastock 29

Materials Relative Source: www. stockcharts. com 30

Inflation vs. Deflation Source: Metastock 31

Upcoming Seminars § “What Every Investor Ought To Know…” § Saturday, May 31 st – Burlington, ON (9 am-4 pm) § Email: events@markettradingconcepts. com for more details 32

Useful Stuff § Monthly Market Chit Chat” – monthly e-publication that discusses the risks and opportunities facing investors – email me to subscribe § Twitter: http: //www. twitter. com/David. Cox. WG § Facebook: http: //www. facebook. com/David. Cox. WG § Linked. In: http: //ca. linkedin. com/in/David. Cox. WG § www. davidcox. ca – a variety of seminars, webinars and publications are published along with David’s travel schedule 33

Questions & Answers 34

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