Committee on Earth Observation Satellites UNFCCC Global Stocktake
Committee on Earth Observation Satellites UNFCCC Global Stocktake #1 Products David Crisp (NASA/JPL) on behalf of AC-VC and WGClimate GHG Task Team 2020 CEOS Plenary Agenda Item #3. 10 20 th – 22 nd October 2020
A System Approach is Adopted to Deliver Atmospheric CO 2 and CH 4 Inventories Recall that a system approach has been adopted to provide atmospheric CO 2 and CH 4 inventories to support the global stocktakes Measurements Models Products Here, we show the types of pilot products under development for delivery in 2021 to support the first Global Stocktake in 2023 CEOS Plenary 2020, 20 -22 October 2
Pilot Atmospheric CO 2 Flux Inventory To illustrate the atmospheric products needed support the GHG Roadmap (§ 3. 4) and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake (GST) • Adopted ensemble-mean CO 2 flux estimates derived by an international team as part of the ongoing OCO-2 multi-model intercomparison project (Crowell et al. , Atmos. Chem. Phys. , 19, 2019) o Employs an ensemble of 10 atmospheric inverse models that assimilates in situ CO 2 data and NASA OCO-2 XCO 2 estimates o Uses bottom-up inventories for fossil fuel, fire etc. to specify the prior flux estimates, illustrating system approach o Generates global monthly and annual mean maps of optimized CO 2 fluxes at 2° by 2° spatial resolution o Can also produce monthly time series for 38 geographic regions (national totals for large countries could also be extracted) • Variances across ensemble adopted as uncertainty estimates for this illustration. More sophisticated uncertainty quantification in work • Delivery formats and schedules are still under discussion CEOS Plenary 2020, 20 -22 October 3
Global Maps of Annual Mean CO 2 Biospheric Emissions and Uptake Mean CO 2 Fluxes Flux Uncertainties Regional Scale Monthly Time - Europe Series – Tropical Africa Jacobson and the OCO-2 MIP CEOS Plenary 2020, 20 -22 October 4
Tracking Emissions from Localized Hot Spots In addition to national-scale global atmospheric inventories, we are developing pilot products for localized sources including large urban areas, power plants and oil fields • The GOSAT team accelerated the • • development of an upper/lower tropospheric product to track effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on emissions from large urban areas The OCO-2 team is trending emissions from individual powerplants and large urban areas The TROPOMI team is tacking methane emissions from fossil fuel extraction These products illustrate methods for tracking hot spots for future GST’s CEOS Plenary 2020, 20 -22 October GOSAT observes CO 2 over Tokyo Analyzed by JAXA/EORC OCO-2 XCO 2 and TROPOMI NO 2 quantify CO 2 emission by large South African power Plants Reuter et al. , ACP 2020 March-April 2019 March-April 2020 TROPOMI observes CH 4 emissions changes over Texas oil fields 5
Providing the Tools for Creating Interfaces and Capacity Building The objective of this activity is to provide a product that starts a conversation with the relevant players and establishes the role of atmospheric inventories in future Global Stocktakes • While existing space-based infrastructure and analysis capabilities are still evolving rapidly and are providing key insights into the emissions and uptake of CO 2 and CH 4 by natural processes and human activities, they are not expected to fully address the requirements of the first UNFCCC Global Stocktake in 2023 • However, these tools are adequate for generating products that illustrate the capabilities of future space-based greenhouse gas monitoring and analysis systems • These pilot products are expected to foster the development of requirements with CEOS stakeholders (UNFCCC, GCOS) and interfaces with users in the national inventory communities who will be using the outputs of the much more capable system that will be coming on line to support the 2028 and future Global Stocktakes at 5 year intervals CEOS Plenary 2020, 20 -22 October 6
Backup CEOS Plenary 2020, 20 -22 October 7
Participants in the OCO-2 CO 2 MIP Model Contact Institution Transport Model Meteorology Inverse Method Ames Matthew Johnson and Sajeev Philip NASA Ames Research Center GEOS-Chem MERRA-2 4 D-Var CAMS Frédéric Chevallier LSCE France LMDz ERA-interim 4 D-Var CMS-Flux Junjie Liu NASA JPL GEOS-Chem GEOS-FP 4 D-Var CSU Andrew Schuh Colorado State University GEOS-Chem MERRA-2 Bayesian synthesis CT Andy Jacobson University of Colorado and NOAA ESRL TM 5 ERA-interim En. KF G 5 APR Brad Weir NASA GMAO GEOS 5 MERRA-2 n/a OU Sean Crowell University of Oklahoma TM 5 ERA-interim 4 D-Var PCTM David Baker Colorado State University PCTM MERRA-2 4 D-Var TM 5 -4 DVAR Sourish Basu University of Maryland NASA GMAO TM 5 ERA-interim 4 D-Var UT Feng Deng University of Toronto GEOS-Chem GEOS-FP 4 D-Var https: //www. esrl. noaa. gov/gmd/ccgg/OCO 2_v 9 mip/ CEOS Plenary 2020, 20 -22 October 8
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