CommercialinConfidence not for public release VALIRENE WP 5000

Commercial-in-Confidence – not for public release VALIRENE WP 5000 Toolkit and Validation Pete Truscott & Daniel Heynderickx Kallisto Consultancy & DH Consultancy ESTEC, 12 th November 2018 12/11/2018 1

Purpose-Built Toolkit for Validation Comprehensive toolkit to generate spacecraft trajectories, calculate trapped environment fluxes and fluences, and shielded effects Python-based (v 3. 6), strongly OO’d toolkit Interfaces with: Py. IRENE (Cython IRENE C++ subroutines/classes, v 1. 50. 001) and can also read in IRENE-generated O/P files Access to established models: AP 8, AE 8, CRRES-PRO, CRRES-ELE IGE, MEOv 1 and MEOv 2 models implemented in Python SRREM API from DHC – not yet fully linked-in NAIF SPICE orbit generator Can input and process some SPENVIS files types (e. g. SAO, SPE, SPP, etc) Comparison and manipulation of: flux- and fluence-based quantities TID, TNID, DDEF Python API for ODI database interface Operates in Linux, but intended for Windows as well 12/11/2018 2

Validation performed againstrument datasets Data processed - protons: Integral/IREM, 60 s (2003 - 2006, 2008 - 2014, 2016 – 2018) RBSP-A/RPS, 60 s, (2013 -2016) RBSP-A/REPT, 120 s (2012 -2018) PROBA-1/SREM, 60 s (2002 -2018) Azur/EI-88, 60 s (1969 & 1970) XMM/ERMD, 60 s (2000 – 2017) Data processed – electrons: Integral/IREM, 60 s (2003 -2018) RBSP-A/REPT, 120 s (2013 -2018) PROBA-1/SREM, 30 s (2002 -2018) CRRES/MEA, 60 s (1990 -1991) XMM/ERMD, 60 s (2000 – 2018) Data processed – counts IREM and SREM 12/11/2018 3

IRENE Model Outputs Mode Description Mean Conventional mean of the environment at each point Percentile Captures statistical behaviour of the data upon which the model is built Perturbed Mean Includes uncertainties in mean flux maps due to measurement and gap-filling errors Monte Carlo Includes “perturbed” mode uncertainties, and adds estimate of dynamic variations due to space weather Additional quantities used: Perturbed Mean Percentile (PMP) – based on 40 different Perturbed Mean calculations for the same trajectory, and determination of the 95 th or 75 th percentile of the environment overall or for L L+ L Monte Carlo Percentile (MCP) – based on 40 different Monte Carlo calculations for the same trajectory, and determination of the 95 th or 75 th percentile of the environment overall or for L L+ L 12/11/2018 4

INTEGRAL/IREM Proton comparisons 12/11/2018 5

INTEGRAL/IREM Proton comparisons (12. 4 – 41. 1 Me. V) 12/11/2018 6

INTEGRAL/IREM Proton comparisons (52. 2 – 173. 0 Me. V) 12/11/2018 7

RBSP-A/REPT and RBSP-A/RPS Proton comparisons 12/11/2018 8

RBSP-A/RPS Proton comparisons (58. 1 – 143. 0 Me. V) 12/11/2018 9

Proton Energy Spectra 12/11/2018 10

Summary for Level of Agreement for AP 9 versus AP 8 12/11/2018 11

INTEGRAL/IREM Electron comparisons 12/11/2018 12

INTEGRAL/IREM Electron comparisons (0. 7 – 1. 8 Me. V) 12/11/2018 13

CRRES/MEA Electron comparisons (0. 14 – 0. 51 Me. V) 12/11/2018 14

CRRES/MEA Electron comparisons (0. 6 – 1. 09 Me. V) 12/11/2018 15

Electron Energy Spectra 12/11/2018 16

Electron Mean Annual Flux ** * IRENE 95 th MC percentile ** 12/11/2018 17

Summary for Level of Agreement for AE 9 versus AE 8 12/11/2018 18

Model results for standard orbits Four standard orbits considered: GEO 75 E, but also some results for 180 E and 285 MEO: 20, 500 km, 55 (GPS orbit) SSO: 800 km, 98. 6 ISS: 450 km , 51. 6 Electric propulsion orbit raising trajectories (courtesy of OHB): GTO to GEO, <0. 25 142 days LEO to MEO, 56 , 349 days LEO to GEO, 1 , 387 days 12/11/2018 19

Electron Spectra for GEO and MEO • • • IRENE Mean and PMP within a factor of 1. 7 over 0. 4 – 10 Me. V AE 8 MAX predicts slightly higher fluxes than IRENE 95 th PMP Difference between MEOv 2 upper and mean fluxes greater than differences in the IRENE and AE 8 MAX results Very good agreement between AE 9 and AE 8 0. 1 to 4 Me. V >0. 1 Me. V, IRENE can be > 10 higher than IGE The flux predicted by AE 9 at 10 Me. V may be an artifact of the model 12/11/2018 20

Proton Spectra for SSO and ISS • • • Again AP 9 does not predict softer component <1 Me. V AP 8 MIN between 1 -50 Me. V matches the AP 9 mean, but AP 8 MAX is up to 11 lower IRENE 95 th PMP results 2 - 3 the IRENE Mean predictions AP 9 does not predict softer component <1 Me. V From 1 to 100 Me. V, AP 9 results 2. 2 AP 8 MIN or 2. 8 AP 8 MAX 12/11/2018 21

Conclusions (1) Protons: The IRENE provides Mean model is in better agreement with data than AP-8 for >40 -50 Me. V and for L above >1. 6 -2. 0 (depending on energy) Within 15 – 40 Me. V, AP 8 appears to be better, as well as for higher energies at L below 1. 6 -2. 0 Note: improved model for low-altitude region being developed for ESA RENELLA Project activity. Electrons For L-regions >2. 5 comparisons indicate that the IRENE Mean model for electrons provides comparable performance as AE-8 models There are regions (defined in terms of energy and L-range) where IRENE is better (particularly at energies >2 Me. V) but: not systematically definable often there are significant differences between the model and data 12/11/2018 22

Conclusions (2) For low-altitude, high-inclination orbits, IRENE should be used with caution Neither the Perturbed Mean nor Monte Carlo modes (PMP and MCP results) seem to be able to capture the dynamic range seen in the electron data AE 9 IRENE 95 th PMP combined with 2 x AE-8 MAX may provide a design margin based on the mean flux from the data Further assessment of this approach needed, considering variability/uncertainties in measured environment 12/11/2018 23

Conclusions (3) IGE-2006 predicts much lower GEO electron fluxes than IRENE and AE-8 predictions Note IRENE may overestimate the high energy electron fluxes IRENE Mean and 95 th PMP environment and effects are typically between the equivalent values predicted by MEOv 2 For EPOR trajectories: For short (<1 year) trajectories, IRENE Monte Carlo-model mode should also be used to aggregate the fluence and effects quantities Dominance of the trapped protons on the effects means space weather variability modelled by IRENE is of second-order importance for the GTO -to-GEO trajectory Validation will be further refined and extended during the remainder of the VALIRENE project 12/11/2018 24