Commercial Aviation Safety Team CAST Update Kyle L

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Update Kyle L. Olsen North Asia Regional Aviation Safety Team Beijing - May 2006

We Need to Continuously Improve Aviation Safety Airplanes in service 32, 495 18, 621 Boeing 12, 351 2001 2021 Hull loss accidents per year Departures, Millions Business as usual Reductions possible with continued Industry effort Hull loss accident rate* *Accident, Airplanes in Service and Departure data are estimated through 31 December 2004

Worldwide Airline Hull Loss Accidents Classified by Accident Type 1995 – 2004 100 80 73 60 Number of Hull Losses 40 20 0 Total Hull Losses = 177 27 20 Landing Controlled Loss of flight into control terrain in flight Landing, Loss of Control, and CFIT Hull Losses 120 or 67% 12 9 Refused Ontakeoff Ground Misc. 5 Fuel Exhaustion

Worldwide Airline Fatalities Classified by Accident Type 1995 – 2004 1, 999 1, 599 Number of Fatalities Total fatalities – 5, 828 CFIT and Loss of Control Fatalities 3, 598 or 62 % 420 Number of fatal accidents (78 total) Controlled flight into terrain 22 Loss of Midcontrol Air in flight collision 21 2 339 231 225 136 In- Fuel tank Structure Landing Flight explosion fire 2 2 1 15

CAST Organizational Structure

CAST Goals n Reduce the U. S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007 n Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate

CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively develop & implement a prioritized safety agenda Industry AIA Airbus ALPA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing GE* RAA FSF Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA** * Representing P&W and RR ** Observer Government DOD FAA • • • Aircraft Certification Flight Standards System Safety Air Traffic Operations Research NASA ICAO** JAA TCC NATCA** NTSB** EASA

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) CAST Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) • Data analyses Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT) • Safety enhancement development Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT) • Master safety plan • Enhancement effectiveness • Future areas of study

Safer Skies COMMERCIAL AVIATION GENERAL AVIATION Aeronautical Decisionmaking Loss of Controlled Flight Into Terrain Loss of Control Uncontained Engine Failures Weather Runway Incursion Controlled Flight Into Terrain Survivability Runway Incursions IMPROVED DATA & ANALYSIS CABIN SAFETY Approach and Landing Passenger Interference Passenger Seat Belt Use Carry-on Baggage Child Restraint Weather Turbulence HUMAN FACTORS IN OPERATIONS & MAINTENANCE

Resource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction 10000 APPROVED PLAN Risk Reduction 9000 Total Cost in $ (Millions) 8000 75% 7000 6000 50% 5000 2007 2020 4000 3000 25% 2000 1000 0% 0 Completed + Plan (2007 Implementation Level) Completed + Plan (2020 Implementation Level) All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020 Implementation Level) Resource Cost ($ Millions) Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements 100%

CAST Safety Plan 31 Completed Safety Enhancements • • • Safety Culture Maintenance Procedures Flight Crew Training Air Traffic Controller Training Uncontained Engine Failures Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS) Standard Operating Procedures Precision Approaches Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)

CAST Safety Plan (cont. ) 16 Committed Safety Enhancements • • • Policies and Procedures Aircraft Design Flight Crew Training (additional aspects) Runway Incursion Prevention Precision Approaches (additional projects) 8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies

CAST Implementation Status

47 Safety Enhancements 31 Complete 16 Underway 1 9 6 31

CAST SAFETY PLAN – 47 SE; 31 Complete; 16 Underway 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 15. 1 15. 0 . 5 1. 1 . 4 7. 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 . 8 16. 4 3. 4 5. 3 . 8 5. 7 9. 2 . 7 17 18 19 20 21 23 24 25 0 1. 5 0. 1 3. 6 1. 5 7. 4 10. 6 6. 0 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 34 2. 3 8. 8 5. 0 1. 9 2. 8 12. 2 0 0 39 40 46 47 49 50 51 52 0 0 1. 6 1. 2 1. 5 2. 6 0 0 53 55 59 60 78 84 85 Status 2. 7 1. 7 0 1. 5 0 . 8 1. 2 COMPLETE ON TRACK IN QUESTION JIMDAT Score/2007 implementation level LATE Chart Complete except for measurement

Regional Perspective Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003 Europe 0. 7 United States and Canada 0. 4 C. I. S. 1 JAA - 0. 6 Non JAA – 1. 2 China 0. 5 Middle East 2. 7 Asia (Excluding 1. 7 China) Africa 12. 3 Latin America and Caribbean 2. 4 Oceania 0. 0 World 0. 74* Accidents per million departures Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate. *2004 Worldwide Accident Rate ONLY, Regional rates when data available 1

Regional Perspective Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003 United States and Canada CAST 0. 4 JSSI 35 SEs JAA 11 SEs EASA 62% reduction 47 SEs 30 complete 17 in work 73% reduction Latin America PAAST and Caribbean CFIT and ALAR 2. 4 Europe 0. 7 C. I. S. 1 JAA - 0. 6 Non JAA – 1. 2 COSCAP CIS Just starting China 0. 5 Middle East 2. 7 Asia (Excluding 1. 7 China) Africa 12. 3 ASET Just forming up Oceania 0. 0 World 0. 74* Accidents per million departures Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate. *2004 Worldwide Accident Rate ONLY, Regional rates when data available 1 COSCAP NA, SEA 27 SEs in work 60% reduction

CAST SAFETY PLAN – 47 SE; 31 Complete; 16 Underway 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 15. 1 15. 0 . 5 1. 1 . 4 7. 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 . 8 16. 4 3. 4 5. 3 . 8 5. 7 9. 2 . 7 17 18 19 20 21 23 24 25 0 1. 5 0. 1 3. 6 1. 5 7. 4 10. 6 6. 0 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 34 2. 3 8. 8 5. 0 1. 9 2. 8 12. 2 0 0 39 40 46 47 49 50 51 52 0 0 1. 6 1. 2 1. 5 2. 6 0 0 53 55 59 60 78 84 85 Status 2. 7 1. 7 0 1. 5 0 . 8 1. 2 COMPLETE ON TRACK IN QUESTION JIMDAT Score/2007 implementation level LATE Chart Complete except for measurement

Precision-Like Approach Implementation “ 21 st Century Instrument Approaches” CAST Safety Enhancements SE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 and -8

Worldwide Fleet • Classic airplanes – typically equipped with electro-mechanical flight instruments, basic navigation (VOR, DME, ADF and possibly GPS Navigation (FMS)) • Standard airplanes – multi-sensor RNAV Flight Management Systems (FMS), Electronic Flight Instruments and Electronic Map Displays (Triple INS rather than GPS) • Advanced airplanes – standard airplanes with advanced navigation (GPS sensors and RNP capabilities)

Precision-Like Approach SE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 & -8 • On NARAST Safety Plan • SE-3, Vertical Angles – Advisory Circular 008, “Guidance for Operators for Conducting Constant decent Final approach (CDFA) for Nonprecision approaches. (November 2004)

Precision-Like Approach SE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 & -8 • Not on NARAST Plan: – – – SE-4, Install Visual Glide Slope Indicators (VGSI) at runway ends SE-5, Ensure installation of DME at airports where older air carrier aircraft operate SE-6, Include 3 D RNAV minima and charting specifications for approach charts.

Precision-Like Approach SE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 & -8 continued • Not on NARAST Plan: – – SE-7, RNP criteria and guidance allowing reduced landing minima SE-8, Define the parameters for future installation of the x. LS (laterally and vertically guided approach path) to runway ends not serviced by Instrument Landing System (ILS)

Implementation is Essential

Hull Loss Accidents Worldwide Commercial Jets (>60, 000 lbs) 1 January to 31 December 2004 Date Operator Aircraft Location Fatal Phase 737 -300 SHARM EL-SHEIK, EGYPT 148 CLIMB 3 Jan FLASH AIRLINES 5 Jan AUSTRIAN A/L F-70 MUNCHEN, GERMANY 0 APPROACH 1 Mar PAKISTAN A/L A 300 JEDDAH, SAUDI ARABIA 0 TAKEOFF 4 Mar AZOV AVIA CO. IL-76 BAKU, AZERBAIJAN 3 TAKEOFF 2 Apr AIR MEMPHIS 707 -320 CAIRO, EGYPT 0 TAKEOFF 28 Apr CENTURION CARGO DC-10 F BOGOTA, COLOMBIA 0 LANDING 18 May SILK WAY AIRLINE IL-76 UMURQI, CHINA 7 TAKEOFF 21 Jul AERO CALIFORNIA DC-9 -14 MEXICO CITY, MEXICO 0 TAKEOFF 11 Aug AIR GUINEE EXPRE 737 -200 SIERRA LEONE 0 TAKEOFF 28 Aug TRANSAIR CARGO Caravelle GISENYI, RWANDA 0 LANDING F-28 SYLHET, BANGLEDESH 0 LANDING 8 Oct BIMAN BANGLEDESH 14 Oct MK AIRLINES 747 -200 F HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA 7 TAKEOFF 7 Nov AIR ATLANTA 747 -200 F DUBAI, UAE 0 TAKEOFF 28 Nov KLM 737 -400 BARCELONA, SPAIN 0 LANDING 30 Nov LION AIR MD-80 SOLO CITY, INDONESIA 26 LANDING

Hull Loss Accidents Worldwide Commercial Jets (> 60, 000 lbs) 1 January to 31 December 2005 Date 8 January Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal Aerorepublica MD-80 Cali, Colombia Landing 0 24 January Atlas Air B-747 -200 Dusseldorf, Germany Landing 0 3 February Air West Cargo IL-76 Khartoum Approach 7 3 February Kam Air B-737 -200 Kabul, Afghanistan Approach 104 19 March Race Cargo Airline B-707 -300 Entebbe, Uganda Approach 0 23 March Airline Transport IL-76 Mwanza, Tanzania Takeoff 8 ICARO Air F-28 Coca, Equador Landing 0 20 April Saha Air B-707 -300 Tehran, Iran Landing 3 19 June Mahfooz Aviation B-707 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Landing 0 Biman Bangladesh DC-10 Chittagong, Bangladesh Landing 0 Air France A-340 Toronto, Canada Landing 0 14 August HELIOS Airways B-737 -300 Grammatikos, Greece Enroute 121 16 August West Caribbean MD-82 Machiques, Venezuela Enroute 160 23 August TANS Peru Airlines B-737 -200 Pucallpa, Peru Approach 45 5 Sept Mandala Airlines B-737 -200 Medan-Polonia, Indonesia Takeoff 104 22 October Bellview Airlines B-737 -200 Lissa, Nigeria Climb 117 31 October MIBA Aviation B-727 Kindu, DR Congo Landing 0 11 November Royal Airlines Cargo IL-76 Khak-e. Shahidan, Afghanistan Approach 8 10 December Sosoliso Airlines DC-9 Port Harcort, Nigeria Landing 109 7 April 1 July 2 August

Safety Metrics Examples Safety Enhancement Indicator 1. Terrain Avoidance Warning System (TAWS) • Reduction in MSAW alerts • Reduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT) 4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (711, 18) • Percentage of operators who have adopted constant 21. ALAR Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades – New Type Designs (1 -3) • Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below 23. ALAR Flight Crew Training – one project • Continuous reduction in the number of busted 27. LOC Policies and Procedures – Risk Assessments and Management – one project • Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk angle approaches • Continuous reduction in selected metrics decision height approach gates • Continuous reduction in altitude busts assessment/management processes in place • Continuous reduction in the number of operations with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical systems • Percentage of operators with a process to include safety information in manuals

Moving Forward

All Regions Combined Hull Loss & Fatal World Wide Accidents Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted World Wide (2007 Implementation Values) 100% 90% Risk Eliminated 80% Risk Remaining Portion of Risk 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% D BIR HE R- AD W TR WS OS US RE C AR RI EL RM OT Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy FU ENI FIR ir Mi da E IC P F-N SC SC F-P P I CLO IT CF To tal 0%

Safety Plan Development Accident JSITS Case studies Accident JSATS Case studies Incident Analysis Process Master Contributing Factors Emerging Risk Safety Enhancements Develop Enhancements & Metrics Recommended Plan Revision JIMDAT Review Changing Risk CAST Plan Metrics Performance To Plan Review Aviation System Changes Identify Hazards Identify Factors Yes Present In Master Factors FAST Hazards Demographic Changes Non. Performance Information Identify Hazards Identify Factors No Develop Contributing Factors (new or emerging 11 -5 -03 CAST-051 R

Our Goal: Make Aviation Safer by Reducing the Risk of an Accident

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