Commercial Aviation Safety Team CAST The CAST Framework

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Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) The CAST Framework and its Applicability to Cargo Operations

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) The CAST Framework and its Applicability to Cargo Operations NTSB Air Cargo Safety Forum March 30 -31, 2004

White House Commission on Aviation Safety, and The National Civil Aviation Review Commission (NCARC)

White House Commission on Aviation Safety, and The National Civil Aviation Review Commission (NCARC) provided a go-forward approach “Reduce Fatal Accident Rate by 80%” “Strategic Plan to Improve Safety” “Improve Safety Worldwide”

CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively develop & implement a prioritized safety agenda Government

CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively develop & implement a prioritized safety agenda Government Industry AIA Airbus ALPA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing P&W* RAA FSF Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA** * Representing GE and RR ** Observer DOD FAA • • • Aircraft Certification Flight Standards System Safety Air Traffic Operations Research NASA ICAO** JAA TCC NATCA** NTSB**

CAST Goals • Reduce the U. S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80%

CAST Goals • Reduce the U. S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007 • Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate

Cargo and passenger operations share similar issues

Cargo and passenger operations share similar issues

Initial CAST investigation categories set by reviewing the data l Controlled Flight Into Terrain

Initial CAST investigation categories set by reviewing the data l Controlled Flight Into Terrain l Loss of Control l Uncontained Engine Failures l Runway Incursion l Approach and Landing l Weather Both cargo and passenger issues included in investigations

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) CAST Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) • Data analyses

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) CAST Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) • Data analyses Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT) • Safety enhancement development Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT) • Master safety plan • Enhancement effectiveness • Future areas of study

Robust CAST Methodology l Detailed event sequence - problem identification from worldwide accidents and

Robust CAST Methodology l Detailed event sequence - problem identification from worldwide accidents and incidents Ø Ø Ø l l l CVR DFDR NTSB reports, etc. Broad based teams (45 -50 specialists/team) > 800 problem statements 752 interventions Packaged into 87 system enhancements Analyzed for effectiveness and synergy 46 enhancements adopted

CAST process led to integrated strategic safety plan Part 121 or equivalent passenger and

CAST process led to integrated strategic safety plan Part 121 or equivalent passenger and cargo operations studied l 19% of accidents and incidents analyzed in detail involved cargo operations or operators (CFIT, Approach & Landing, Loss of Control) l Current CAST plan: Ø 46 Prioritized Safety Enhancements Ø 8 R&D projects and 2 studies Ø Projected 73% fatality risk reduction by 2007 l Industry and Government implementing plan Ø ATA (20 operators), RAA (47), NACA (13) plus non-aligned (35) l

CAST Safety Plan l 25 Completed Safety Enhancements Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Safety

CAST Safety Plan l 25 Completed Safety Enhancements Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Safety Culture Maintenance Procedures Flight Crew Training Air Traffic Controller Training Uncontained Engine Failures Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS) Standard Operating Procedures Precision Approaches Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)

CAST Safety Plan (cont. ) l 21 Committed Safety Enhancements Policies and Procedures Ø

CAST Safety Plan (cont. ) l 21 Committed Safety Enhancements Policies and Procedures Ø Aircraft Design Ø Flight Crew Training (additional aspects) Ø Runway Incursion Prevention Ø Precision Approaches (additional projects) Ø l 8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies

Resources vs. risk reduction highlights the need for prioritized approach 10 Risk Eliminated $

Resources vs. risk reduction highlights the need for prioritized approach 10 Risk Eliminated $ Risk Reduction Total Cost in $ (Millions) APPROVED PLAN 9 8 75% 7 6 $ 50% 2007 2020 5 4 3 25% 2 0% $ Completed CAST-050 $ $ Completed + Plan (2007 Implementation Level) Completed + Plan (2020 Implementation Level) 1 0 All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020 Implementation Level) Resource Cost ($ Billions) 100%

Prioritized safety makes good economic sense 100 Dollars/Flt. Cyc 80 Part 121 Aviation Industry

Prioritized safety makes good economic sense 100 Dollars/Flt. Cyc 80 Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents Cost Savings Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle 73 % 60 Fa tal ity Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle Or ~ $620 Million Dollars/Year Ris k. R ed uc tio 40 n 20 Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan @ 2007 levels 0 2002 2007

Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST

Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan (2007 Implementation Values) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% ac Ev ce Tu rbu len p om s-C Sy En g-U CE F Inc ew Cr ir da Mi D GN C LO oll y. C wa Ru n e/E xp los isi on ion IT Fir C LO To CAST 1987 -2000 Fatal/Hull Loss Dataset – Security events excluded. CF Flt Risk Eliminated Risk Remaining tal Portion of Risk Fully implementing the CAST plan will lead to a 73% overall risk reduction by 2007

CAST enhancements will lead to large safety improvement for both passenger & cargo operations

CAST enhancements will lead to large safety improvement for both passenger & cargo operations Portion of Accidents 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 75% Passenger Operations Cargo Operations Unmitigated Passenger 69% Unmitigated Cargo Before CAST Plan Implemented CAST Plan (1987 – 2000) (2007) * Based on assessment of 1987 -2001 accident data for turbine powered aircraft

Current CAST plan will give large safety improvements Across the range of cargo operations

Current CAST plan will give large safety improvements Across the range of cargo operations accident factors Portion of Cargo Accidents 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Common with Passenger Operations 75% Unique to Cargo Operations Unmitigated Common 51% Unmitigated Unique Cargo Operations Accident Factors Remaining Cargo Accident Factors Before CAST Plan Implemented CAST Plan (1987 – 2000) (2007) • Part 121 Cargo Accidents • Based on assessment of 1987 -2001 accident data for turbine powered aircraft

JSAT chartered to examine additional issues not covered by initial CAST activities l Remaining

JSAT chartered to examine additional issues not covered by initial CAST activities l Remaining Risk JSAT : Ø Ø Ground Icing/Deicing Midair Maintenance/System Malfunction Cargo Unique ü Cargo shift/CG/Gross Weight ü Hazmat

Remaining Risk JSAT/JSIT Completion Schedule l Cargo JSAT - May 2004 l Cargo JSIT

Remaining Risk JSAT/JSIT Completion Schedule l Cargo JSAT - May 2004 l Cargo JSIT - December 2004 l Prioritization and updated CAST plan - February 2005

Summary l CAST analysis included several cargo accidents l Cast safety enhancements provide effective

Summary l CAST analysis included several cargo accidents l Cast safety enhancements provide effective risk reduction for cargo and passenger operations l Cargo operators should incorporate applicable cast safety enhancements l Remaining risk JSAT evaluating cargo unique factors l Resulting enhancements should be considered prior to launching new initiatives

Additional background material

Additional background material