Commercial Aviation Safety Team CAST David Downey International

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Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) David Downey International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) David Downey International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Lisbon, Portugal, November 2004

In the U. S. , our focus was set by the White House Commission

In the U. S. , our focus was set by the White House Commission on Aviation Safety, and The National Civil Aviation Review Commission (NCARC) “Reduce Fatal Accident Rate by 80%” “Strategic Plan to Improve Safety” “Improve Safety Worldwide”

We Need to Continuously Improve Aviation Safety Hull loss accident rate

We Need to Continuously Improve Aviation Safety Hull loss accident rate

We Need to Continuously Improve Aviation Safety Airplanes in service 32, 495 17, 357

We Need to Continuously Improve Aviation Safety Airplanes in service 32, 495 17, 357 Boeing 11, 693 2002 2021 Departures, Millions Hull loss accident rate

We Need to Continuously Improve Aviation Safety Airplanes in service 32, 495 17, 357

We Need to Continuously Improve Aviation Safety Airplanes in service 32, 495 17, 357 Boeing 11, 693 2002 2021 Hull loss accidents per year Departures, Millions Hull loss accident rate Business as usual Our goal

Safer Skies COMMERCIAL AVIATION GENERAL AVIATION Aeronautical Decisionmaking Loss of Controlled Flight Into Terrain

Safer Skies COMMERCIAL AVIATION GENERAL AVIATION Aeronautical Decisionmaking Loss of Controlled Flight Into Terrain Loss of Control Uncontained Engine Failures Weather Runway Incursion Controlled Flight Into Terrain Survivability Runway Incursions IMPROVED DATA & ANALYSIS CABIN SAFETY Approach and Landing Passenger Interference Passenger Seat Belt Use Carry-on Baggage Child Restraint Weather Turbulence HUMAN FACTORS IN OPERATIONS & MAINTENANCE

CAST Goals • Reduce the U. S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80%

CAST Goals • Reduce the U. S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007 • Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Industry AIA Airbus ALPA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing P&W*

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Industry AIA Airbus ALPA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing P&W* RAA FSF Government Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA** * Representing GE and RR ** Observer DOD FAA • • • Aircraft Certification Flight Standards System Safety Air Traffic Operations Research NASA ICAO** JAA TCC NATCA** NTSB**

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) CAST Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) Joint Safety Implementation

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) CAST Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT) Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT) • Data analyses • Safety enhancement development • Master safety plan • Enhancement effectiveness • Future areas of study

CAST Integrated Strategic Safety Plan • Ongoing Industry and FAA Safer Skies Initiatives were

CAST Integrated Strategic Safety Plan • Ongoing Industry and FAA Safer Skies Initiatives were Combined into CAST • Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated Strategic Safety Plan Developed • • 46 Prioritized Safety Enhancements 8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies. Projected 73% Risk Reduction by 2007 Safety Enhancements in place and fully supported by Government and Industry

CAST Safety Plan Specifics

CAST Safety Plan Specifics

CAST Safety Plan 25 Completed Safety Enhancements l l l l l Safety Culture

CAST Safety Plan 25 Completed Safety Enhancements l l l l l Safety Culture Maintenance Procedures Flight Crew Training Air Traffic Controller Training Uncontained Engine Failures Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS) Standard Operating Procedures Precision Approaches Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)

CAST Safety Plan (cont. ) 21 Committed Safety Enhancements l l l Policies and

CAST Safety Plan (cont. ) 21 Committed Safety Enhancements l l l Policies and Procedures Aircraft Design Flight Crew Training (additional aspects) Runway Incursion Prevention Precision Approaches (additional projects) 8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies

Resource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction 70% 10000 APPROVED PLAN 9000 Total Cost in $

Resource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction 70% 10000 APPROVED PLAN 9000 Total Cost in $ (Millions) 8000 60% 7000 50% 6000 40% 5000 2007 2020 4000 30% 3000 20% 2000 10% 1000 0% 0 Completed CAST-050 Completed + Plan (2007 Implementation Level) Completed + Plan (2020 Implementation Level) All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020 Implementation Level) Resource Cost ($ Millions) Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements 80%

Safety Plan Benefits l Prediction of a 73% risk reduction that also results in

Safety Plan Benefits l Prediction of a 73% risk reduction that also results in approximately $620 million annual savings to the industry l l Current accident cost per flight is approximately $76 cycle Implementation of the 46 selected safety enhancements reduces this cost by $56 per flight cycle Safety is morally required and is also good for business

Cost Savings Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents 100 Dollars/Flt.

Cost Savings Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents 100 Dollars/Flt. Cyc 80 Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle 73 % 60 Ris kr ed uc ti on Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle Or ~ $620 Million Dollars/Year 40 20 Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan @ 2007 levels 0 2002 2007

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Risk Eliminated Risk

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Risk Eliminated Risk Remaining ac Ev ce Tu rbu len p om s-C Sy En g-U CE F Inc ew Cr ir da Mi D GN C LO oll y. C wa Ru n Fir e/E xp los isi on ion IT CF Flt C LO tal CAST 1987 -2000 Fatal/Hull Loss Dataset – Security events excluded. To Portion of Risk Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan (2007 Implementation Values)

Safety Metrics Examples Safety Enhancement 1. Terrain Avoidance Warning System (TAWS) Indicator l. Reduction

Safety Metrics Examples Safety Enhancement 1. Terrain Avoidance Warning System (TAWS) Indicator l. Reduction in MSAW alerts l. Reduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT) 4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (711, 18) l. Percentage 21. ALAR Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades – New Type Designs (1 -3) l. Reduction 23. ALAR Flight Crew Training – one project l. Continuous 27. LOC Policies and Procedures – Risk Assessments and Management – one project l. Percentage of operators who have adopted constant angle approaches l. Continuous reduction in the number of approaches where descent rates exceed 1000 feet per minute in final approach phase, reduction in the percentage of dive and drive approaches and the number of unstabilized approaches in number of inadvertent descents below decision height reduction in the number of busted approach gates and altitude busts of operators/manufacturers with risk assessment/management processes in place l. Continuous reduction in the number of operations with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical systems l. Percentage of operators with a process to include safety information in manuals

International Outreach

International Outreach

Regional Perspective Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss

Regional Perspective Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003* Europe 0. 7 United States and Canada 0. 4 C. I. S. 1 JAA - 0. 6 Non JAA – 1. 2 Middle East 3. 1 Africa 13. 3 Latin America and Caribbean 2. 4 China 0. 5 Asia 1. 7 (Excluding China) Oceania 0. 0 World 1. 0 1 Insufficient * fleet experience to generate reliable rate. Accidents per million departures 2003 Preliminary Information 11/1/03 REG-053 a

Regional Perspective Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss

Regional Perspective Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003* United States and Canada 0. 4 CAST 46 SEs 25 complete 21 in work 73% reduction JSSI 35 SEs 11 SEs to EASA 11 complete 62% reduction PAAST CFIT, ALAR & RI SE-23 + * COSCAP CIS C. I. S. 1 Just starting JAA - 0. 6 Non JAA – 1. 2 Middle East 3. 1 China 0. 5 Africa 13. 3 Latin America and Caribbean 2. 4 1 Insufficient Europe 0. 7 fleet experience to generate reliable rate. 2003 Preliminary Information Asia 1. 7 COSCAP’s Asia 12 SEs on plan 60% reduction (Excluding China) ASET Just forming up Oceania 0. 0 World 1. 0 Accidents per million departures 27 May 2004 -KLO