Commercial Aviation Safety Team CAST Cooperative Efforts Can

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Cooperative Efforts Can Drive Down the Accident Rate European Civil Aviation Conference One Hundred and Twenty-Fourth Meeting of the Directors General of Civil Aviation Margaret Gilligan Government Co-Chair, CAST December 7, 2005

Accidents Per Million Flight Hours Accident Rates in the U. S. and Western Europe Have Dropped Dramatically Over the Years Current accident rates are incredibly low Challenge is to drive them lower U. S. Part 121 -Type Operations 1946 To 2004 Accident Rate Fatal Accident Rate Note: 2004 is based on a pro-rata of data through May, 2004.

Major Fatal Accidents Per Million Departures History Shows New Capabilities and Appropriately Focused Actions Reduced Accident Rate Pressurized Aircraft into fleet (L-049, DC-6 & B 377) Earliest ILS (Glide slope, LOC & markers) Broad implementation of VOR and DME Radar introduced at selected towers Vickers-700 Turboprop (1953 in UK, 1956 US) DC-7 (1955), Lockheed Electra Radio contact, ATC centers & cruise aircraft 1949 -55 Long-Range radar (Centers) Jet Engine; 707 (1958) & DC-8 VOR/DME integrated into autopilot (precision approaches) Secondary radar RNAV (processing VOR/DME & basic Instruments) GPWS, TCAS; Early automation FMS CRM & 6 -Axis Simulator & FDR Windshear Cabin Safety FOQA/ASAP & ATC Data RJ Revolution New Large Jets Cooperative safety agenda 5

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) n Ongoing Industry and FAA Safer Skies Initiatives were combined into CAST n Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated Strategic Safety Plan Developed n In place and fully supported by Government and Industry with Worldwide Recognition “CAST”

CAST Goals n Reduce the U. S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007 n Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate

Gov’t and Industry Focused Action Led to Dramatic Reduction in Wind Shear Accidents Training/ Pilot Guide Reactive Wind Shear R Systems Enhancements Wind Shear Accidents 1970 Predictive Wind Shear Systems 727 Denver 8/7/75 DC-9 Philadelphia 6/23/76 707 Pago 1/30/74 75 727 Doha 3/14/79 80 DC-9 Charlotte 7/2/94 727 New Orleans 7/9/82 DC-10 Faro 12/21/92 L 1011 Dallas-ft. Worth 8/2/85 85 90 95 2000

The CAST Agenda Was Developed to Address the Major Types of Accidents That Have Occurred in the Past 1. 999 Total Fatalities = 5, 828 (5, 530 onboard) 1, 599 2004 fatalities = 186 (186 onboard) Fatalities 420 368 155 339 348 231 31 225 136 CFIT* Number of fatal accidents 91 total 22 119 89 25 Loss of Mid-air Takeoff In-flight Fuel Structure Landing Runway Takeoff Fuel control in collision configfire tank incursion exhaustion flight uration explosion 21 2 3 2 2 1 15 2 Note: Accidents involving multiple, non-onboard fatalities are included Accidents involving single, non-onboard fatalities are excluded Fatalities/accidents are placed in one category only. 2 2 13 Misc. fatality 8 3 2 0 1 RTO** Turbulence Wind Ice/Snow/ shear Heavy Rain 1 2 0 1 Unknown 5 * CFIT = Controlled Flight Into Terrain ** RTO = Refused Takeoff *** 2004 is based on Preliminary Data. 3 -2 -05 AT-071

CAST Organizational Structure

CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively develop & implement a prioritized safety agenda Industry AIA Airbus ALPA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing GE* RAA FSF Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA** * Representing P&W and RR ** Observer Government DOD FAA • • Aircraft Certification Flight Standards Air Traffic Operations Research NASA ICAO** JAA TCCA NATCA** NTSB** EASA

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) CAST Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) • Data analyses Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT) • Safety enhancement development Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT) • Master safety plan • Enhancement effectiveness • Future areas of study

1. NTSB Accident Incident Reports Safety Analysis Process 2. 21. 3 Reports NASDAC data Airclaims data FOQA data Historical Data Pareto Plots Industry JSAT 3. 4. Intervention Strategy Accident Threat Combined Threat Causal Analysis Cause 5. 6. JSIT Cause JSAT Implementation Strategy Cause Safer Skies Industry 7. Government Av. SP Coordinated Plan Measuring Progress to Goal 5. 3 -23

Safety Metrics Examples Safety Enhancement Indicator 1. Terrain Avoidance Warning System (TAWS) • Reduction in MSAW alerts • Reduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT) 4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (711, 18) • Percentage of operators who have adopted constant 21. ALAR Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades – New Type Designs (1 -3) • Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below 23. ALAR Flight Crew Training – one project • Continuous reduction in the number of busted 27. LOC Policies and Procedures – Risk Assessments and Management – one project • Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk angle approaches • Continuous reduction in selected metrics decision height approach gates • Continuous reduction in altitude busts assessment/management processes in place • Continuous reduction in the number of operations with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical systems • Percentage of operators with a process to include safety information in manuals

Resource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction 10000 APPROVED PLAN Risk Reduction 9000 Total Cost in $ (Millions) 8000 75% 7000 6000 50% 5000 2007 2020 4000 3000 25% 2000 1000 0% 0 Completed + Plan (2007 Implementation Level) Completed + Plan (2020 Implementation Level) All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020 Implementation Level) Resource Cost ($ Millions) Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements 100%

Cost Savings Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents 100 Dollars/Flt. Cyc 80 Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle 73 % 60 Ris kr ed uc ti on Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle Or ~ $620 Million Dollars/Year 40 20 Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan @ 2007 levels 0 2002 2007

All Regions Combined Hull Loss & Fatal World Wide Accidents Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted World Wide (2007 Implementation Values) 100% 90% Risk Eliminated 80% Risk Remaining Portion of Risk 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% D BIR HE R- AD W TR WS OS US RE C AR RI EL RM OT Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy FU ENI FIR ir Mi da E IC P F-N SC SC F-P P I CLO IT CF To tal 0%

CAST Shared Safety Products Have Contributed to Accident Fatality Risk Reduction Worldwide Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2004 JSSI 35 SEs 62% reduction United States and Canada 0. 4 CAST 47 SEs 73% reduction C. I. S. 1 Europe - 0. 7 China 0. 5 Middle East 2. 7 Latin America and Caribbean 2. 4 COSCAP CIS Early stages COSCAP Asia 27 SEs in work (China) 60% reduction Asia (Excluding 1. 7 China) Africa 12. 3 ASET Early stages PAAST CFIT and ALAR World 0. 74 Accidents per million departures (2004 rate) (1 insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate) Oceania 0. 0

The Aviation System is Undergoing Significant Change Public Safety Expectation

Our Future Focus Must be Guided by Hazards Identified Through Safety Information Sharing and Problems and Solutions Addressed by a Cooperative Industry/Government Approach • • • Effectiveness metrics System monitoring for emerging risks and dynamic changes Isolated data sources combined and leveraged through extensive data sharing

Isolated Data Sources Can Be Combined to Leverage the Power of Safety Info. Data Sharing PDARS FOQA ASAP Other Legacy ASRS Weather NASDAC ROMAN MRO VASIP ECCAIRS Firewall NAOMS COS DATA Highlight Possible Safety Issues

Conclusions • • CAST has an effective data-driven process CAST brings together all the key players – Air Carriers – Employee Groups – Manufacturers – Government • • Predicted 73% risk reduction by 2007 • CAST is moving to develop proactive processes to identify changing and emerging risks • History shows focused action and introduction of new capabilities have led to large accident rate reductions • Joint industry and government teams working together to a common agenda can further enhance the safety of our very safe aviation system. Can we meet the challenge? CAST is committed to worldwide participation