Commercial Aviation Safety Team CAST and Remaining Risk

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) and Remaining Risk Safety Enhancements North Asia Regional Aviation Safety Team Bangkok, Thailand January 2007 Kyle Olsen – Glenn Michael

COMMERCIAL AVIATION SAFETY TEAM (CAST) 2020 Safety Plan Status December 7, 2006

47 Safety Enhancements 39 Complete 6 08 Underway 2 39 Risk Reduction Estimated To Date 65. 0 % 2020 Plan Risk Reduction Estimated 70. 9 %

2020 CAST SAFETY PLAN – 47 SE; 39 Complete; 6 Underway 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 15. 1 15. 0 . 5 1. 1 . 4 7. 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 . 8 16. 4 3. 4 5. 3 . 8 5. 7 9. 2 . 7 17 18 19 20 21 23 24 R 2 25 0 1. 5 0. 1 3. 6 1. 5 7. 4 2. 4 6. 0 26 27 28 29 30 R 1 31 32 34 R 1 2. 3 8. 8 5. 0 1. 9 0. 7 12. 2 0 0 39 40 46 47 49 50 51 52 0 0 1. 6 1. 2 1. 5 2. 6 0 0 53 55 59 60 78 84 85 120 2. 7 1. 7 0 1. 5 0 . 8 1. 2 0 COMPLETE ON TRACK IN QUESTION JIMDAT Score/2007 implementation level LATE Complete except for measurement

Late Safety Enhancements Individual Risk Reduction – 30 R 1 Human Factors and Automation 0. 7 – 47 CRM Training for Tower Controllers 1. 2 NEEDING MEASUREMENT – 27 Risk Assessment – 31 AMT Ground and Simulator Training – 49 SOP’s for Ground Operations – 78 Cabin Injury Reduction During Turbulence 8. 8 12. 2 1. 5 0. 0

Study of Remaining Risks Background Joint Implementation Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

Safer Skies COMMERCIAL AVIATION GENERAL AVIATION Aeronautical Decisionmaking Loss of Controlled Flight Into Terrain Loss of Control Uncontained Engine Failures Weather Runway Incursion Controlled Flight Into Terrain Survivability Runway Incursions IMPROVED DATA & ANALYSIS CABIN SAFETY Approach and Landing Passenger Interference Passenger Seat Belt Use Carry-on Baggage Child Restraint Weather Turbulence HUMAN FACTORS IN OPERATIONS & MAINTENANCE

Resource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction 10000 Risk Reduction $ APPROVED PLAN 9000 Total Cost in $ (Millions) 8000 75% 7000 6000 $ 50% 2007 2020 5000 4000 3000 25% Resource Cost ($ Millions) Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements 100% 2000 0% $ Completed Copyright © 2006 Boeing. All rights reserved. $ 1000 $ 0 Completed + Plan (2007 Implementation Level) Completed + Plan (2020 Implementation Level) All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020 Implementation Level) ׀ 9

Major Accidents per million departures CFIT, Approach-and-Landing, and Loss-of -Control Major Accidents Western-Built CFIT Commercial Jets accident rate Source: Ascend, Boeing Copyright © 2006 Boeing. All rights reserved. Approach-and-landing accident rate Loss-of-Control accident rate 3 year moving average (CFIT) 3 year moving average (Approach and landing) 3 year moving average (Loss of Control) Year * 1 January through 1 September 2006 ** Worldwide departure/rates are estimated through August 31, 2006. Departure data not available for Eastern-Built Aircraft ׀ 10

All Regions Combined Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted World Wide 1987 -2001 Equivalent Part 121 Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents (2007 Implementation Values) 100 90 Risk Eliminated 80 Risk Remaining 70 Portion of Risk (percent) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Total Accident Classes by Copyright © 2006 Boeing. All Defined rights reserved. CFIT LOC-I CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy SCFPP SC F-NP Ice Midair ׀ 11

Study of Remaining Risks Results Joint Implementation Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

Remaining Risk • Cargo • Icing • Midair • Maintenance

Status of RR SEs • 24 SEs and 11 R&D Projects were developed by RR JSITs – JIMDAT has evaluated the 24 SEs and comments by CAST Members have been addressed. – The JIMDAT recommends 18 SEs for G level approval. • 1 SE is recommended for CAST approval in support of international activities • 4 SEs are recommended to be retained as Safety Enhancements Reserved for Future Implementation (SERFI) • 1 SE was eliminated by the JIMDAT – R&D projects have yet to be evaluated • Planned action for February JIMDAT

Regional Perspective Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1996 through 2005 Europe 0. 6 United States and Canada 0. 4 C. I. S. 1 JAA - 0. 6 Non JAA – 1. 2 Middle East 2. 7 China 0. 23 Africa 9. 7 Latin America and Caribbean 3. 2 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate. (Excluding China) Oceania 0. 0 World 1. 03 1 Asia 1. 9 Accidents per million departures

Regional Perspective Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1996 through 2005 United States and Canada CAST 0. 4 ESSI 35 SEs JAA 11 SEs EASA 62% reduction 65 SEs 39 complete 26 in work 76% reduction Europe 0. 6 COSCAP CIS Specific CIS Projects JAA - 0. 6 Non JAA – 1. 2 Middle East 2. 7 COSCAP BA (late 2005) Africa 9. 7 Latin America PAAST and Caribbean CFIT and ALAR 3. 2 China 0. 23 COSCAP GS (2006) Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate. COSCAP NA, SEA 27 SEs in work 60% reduction Asia 1. 9 (Excluding China) Oceania 0. 0 COSCAP UEMOA (late 2005) COSCAP AM 1 C. I. S. 1 World 1. 03 Accidents per million departures

SE-165 Midair TCAS Policies and Procedures • Prevent midair collisions by requiring flightcrews to follow TCAS Resolution Advisories (RA’s), establish procedures for TCAS range setting and requiring that TCAS-capable simulators and flighttraining devices are used for training TCAS responses and Maneuvers. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

SE-164 Midair TCAS Installation • Worldwide installation of TCAS in all aircraft of 33, 000 pounds or greater max takeoff weight. • ICAO requirement for aircraft of 5, 700 kg • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

SE-121 Cargo Standard Operating Procedures • Reduce cargo-related accidents and incidents by publishing and enforcing clear, concise and accurate standard operating procedures (SOP), and training the rationale behind those procedures • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

SE-125 Cargo Hazardous Materials - Haz. Mat • Reduce hazmat related accidents and incidents develop and implement by regulators, manufacturers (of packaging material) and shipping companies a multitier system to identify and safely process undeclared hazardous material. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

SE-129 Regulation & Policy Compliance, Enforcement and Restricted Operations • Regulators should improve their legal processes for compliance, enforcement and operational restrictions. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

SE-130 Cargo Regulation & Policy - Oversight • Regulators should develop/enhance and implement a system that ensures appropriate inspector coverage for all airlines, sub-contracting, and leasing operations and assign highly-experienced inspectors to operators that require the most oversight • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

SE-131 Cargo Safety Culture • Reduce cargo-related accidents and incidents by encouraging a culture that enhances operational safety. Safety culture can be enhanced by a safety management system (SMS). • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

SE-136 Icing Training – Engine Surge Recovery • To prevent accidents resulting from an engine surge caused by ice ingestion, airlines should provide adequate training for flight crews to ensure appropriate responses. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

SE-163 Midair See-and Avoid • Prevent midair collisions by improving seeand-avoid capability. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

SE-159 Midair Airspace Design • Prevent midair collisions by designing B/C/D airspace to be more easily identifiable, improving the usability of VFR charts and ensuring adequate and timely coordination of airspace design changes to users. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

SE-162 Midair • Prevent midair collisions by facilitating aircraft separation for users of advanced navigation systems not receiving ATC separation services. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

SE-127 Cargo Fire Containment • To reduce the occurrence of accidents and incidents from cargo fires, improved cargo containers should be developed to contain (or suppress) fires originating in shipped cargo • Appropriate for implementation in Asia ?

SE-133 – Icing Turboprop Aircraft Ice Detection Systems • To prevent accidents caused by in-flight icing, for turboprop aircraft with nonevaporative ice protection systems and non-powered flight controls, install systems that automatically detect ice, measure the rate of ice accretion and warn the crew. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia ?

SE-134 Icing Aircraft Design - Avionics • Avionic manufacturers and aircraft manufacturers should develop and install smart pitch guidance systems on all aircraft not presently equipped to prevent over rotation in conjunction with a low energy state or aerodynamic degradation due to the presence of ice. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia ?

SE-101 Aircraft Design Advanced Circuit Protection • Develop and install advanced circuit protection / arc fault breaker technology • Appropriate for implementation in Asia ?

SE-169 Maintenance Policy & Procedures • Airlines, operators and regulators should ensure that procedures are in place related to work cards, shift changes, responsibility and authority for work assignments and that necessary manuals are complete, accurate, available and appropriately used. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

SE-170 Maintenance Aircraft Design • Original equipment manufacturers (OEM) should monitor service history to verify that design and procedural assumptions valid. • Operators should adhere to OEM recommendations or report maintenance task difficulties • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

SE-172 Maintenance Gap Analysis of Maintenance Process • Identify and correct gaps within and between the maintenance processes that could inhibit the intended design level of safety. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

SE-175 Maintenance Flight Critical Configurations Changes • Airlines/maintenance should provide visible tagging any time the pitot static system is covered. • Preflight procedures should include specific verification that pitot static ports are uncovered. • Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

The Needs Vary Capacity Efficiency Safety

Thank you Kyle Olsen – Glenn Michael