Commercial Aviation Safety Team 2006 Collier Trophy Nomination

Commercial Aviation Safety Team 2006 Collier Trophy Nomination Dr. Michael Romanowski Aerospace Industries Association NAA Selection Committee Presentation February 6, 2007 Crystal Gateway Marriott Arlington, Virginia

Situation in Mid-90’s Highlighted Need for Dramatic Action CAST 1998 FSF Briefing

By Today’s Standards, Accidents in the Mid-90 s Were Frequent AMR, Cali Value. Jet, Everglades Delta, Pensacola TWA, New York AMR, NY Comair, Lexington CAST R CAST Has Saved Lives It’s Changed Our Safety Expectations & the Way We Manage Aviation Safety

Safety Responsibilities Are Shared Safe Airplane + Safe Operation + Safe Infrastructure = Safe Air Travel Air Safety Government Manufacturers · Safe airplane design · Safety enhancing technology development · Flight and maintenance operations, recommendations, documents, training, and support · Maintenance planning · Safety related analysis · Safety initiatives · · Operators · Operations policy and procedures · Airplane/pilot publications · Approved maintenance program · Maintenance, policy, and procedures · Maintenance publications · Safety program · Training · · · · * Aviation law Operations specification Rules and regulations Inspectors policy, procedures, and training Airline policy and procedures requirements Safety, health, environmental law, and regulations Navigation facilities/operations Airport facilities Departure enroute, arrival, approach policy, and procedures Air traffic control services Safety related analysis * Including Air Traffic Service providers 5. 1 -9

CAST Came Together in 1997 to Form an Unprecedented Industry-Government Partnership • • • Voluntary commitments Consensus decision-making Data driven risk management Implementation-focused Goals: • Reduce the U. S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007 • Reach out internationally to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate

CAST Brings Key Stakeholders To Cooperatively Develop & Implement A Prioritized Safety Agenda Industry AIA Airbus ALPA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing GE* RAA FSF Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA** * Representing P&W and RR ** Observer Government DOD FAA • • Aircraft Certification Flight Standards Air Traffic Operations Research NASA ICAO** JAA TCCA NATCA** NTSB** EASA Current composition

Data Drove CAST Focus Areas Act on Highest Priority Threats Initial Agenda: • Approach & landing accidents • Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) • Loss of control accidents • Runway incursions • Uncontained engine failures • Weather-related accidents CAST 1998

Rigorous Processes Created to Guide Development & Implementation of CAST Plan CAST Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) • Data analyses Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT) • Safety enhancement development Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT) • Master safety plan • Enhancement effectiveness • Future areas of study

Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan (2007 Implementation Values) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Risk Eliminated Risk Remaining ac Ev ce Tu rbu len p om s-C Sy En g-U CE F Inc ew Cr ir da Mi D GN C LO oll y. C wa Ru n e/E xp los isi on ion IT Fir C LO To CAST 1987 -2000 Fatal/Hull Loss Dataset – Security events excluded. CF Flt Does not include new “remaining risk” enhancements committed to in 2006 tal Portion of Risk Implementation of CAST Enhancements Has Significantly Improved Aviation Safety

Resources vs. Risk Reduction Highlights the Power of the CAST Approach 10 Risk Eliminated $ Risk Reduction Total Cost in $ (Millions) APPROVED PLAN 9 8 75% 7 6 $ 50% 2007 2020 5 4 3 25% 2 0% $ Completed CAST-050 $ $ Completed + Plan (2007 Implementation Level) Completed + Plan (2020 Implementation Level) 1 0 All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020 Implementation Level) CAST 2002 Plan Resource Cost ($ Billions) 100%

CAST Maintained Commitment to Implementation Despite Challenging Post-9/11 Economic Conditions CAST demonstrated that prioritized safety makes good business sense 100 Dollars/Flt. Cyc 80 Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents Cost Savings Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle Fa tal 60 ity Ris k. R ed uc ti on 40 Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle Or ~ $620 Million Dollars/Year 20 Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan. 0 2002 2007

CAST Outreach Has Improved Aviation Safety World-wide CAST 65 SEs 40 complete 25 in work 76% reduction COSCAP CIS Specific CIS Projects ESSI 35 SEs JAA 11 SEs EASA 62% reduction COSCAP BA (late 2005) PAAST CFIT and ALAR COSCAP NA, SEA 27 SEs in work 60% reduction COSCAP GS (2006) COSCAP UEMOA (late 2005) COSCAP AM Estimated Fatality Risk Reduction

Summary l Unprecedented partnership & positive impact l Long-term industry & government commitment l Dramatically improved aviation safety in US and World-wide l Committed to continue to drive future safety improvements - l Enable cooperative incident-level data sharing CAST is deserving of the Collier Trophy “for its outstanding achievement and dramatically improving the safety of commercial aviation and saving lives in the US and around the world”

Questions COMMERCIAL AVIATION SAFETY TEAM

Accident Rate Generic model for achieving long term accident rate reduction Training SOPs Maximize existing systems Proactive data management Design solutions Time

Gov’t and Industry Focused Action Led to Dramatic Reduction in Wind Shear Accidents Training/ Pilot Guide Reactive Wind Shear R Systems Enhancements Wind Shear Accidents 1970 Predictive Wind Shear Systems 727 Denver 8/7/75 DC-9 Philadelphia 6/23/76 707 Pago 1/30/74 75 727 Doha 3/14/79 80 DC-9 Charlotte 7/2/94 727 New Orleans 7/9/82 DC-10 Faro 12/21/92 L 1011 Dallas-ft. Worth 8/2/85 85 90 95 2000

CAST metrics to ensure implementation and effectiveness; identify areas for additional action CAST entered loop in 1997/98 Resolve Identify Prioritize Exploiting FOQA-type data can bring powerful system benefits Frequency Monitor Emerging risk due to system change Time

CAST Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) Concept for the Future Combining isolated data sources can leverage the power of safety information data sharing PDARS FOQA ASAP Other Legacy ASRS Weather NTSB ROMAN AIDS ECCAIRS NAIMS NAOMS Firewall SDR Possible safety issues