Combating terrorism An Event Tree Approach Talk at

Combating terrorism: An Event Tree Approach Talk at the BTR 2003 Conference Richard Wilson Mallinckrodt Research Professor of Physics Harvard University March 21 st 2003

First task: Define the problem. Next task: break it into component parts factorizable as much as possible Then follow Sequence of Events

Step 1. The Creation of a Terrorist Step 2. A Terrorist Enters Society Stp 3. Terrorist Exploits Vulnerability It is usually easiest to address the first step in a chain of events

Definition of a Terrorist (OED) The terrorists, as they were justly denominated, from the cruel and impolitic maxim of keeping the people in implicit subjugation by a merciless severity (1795) Several notables are believed to be more or less implicated in the acts of the Terrorists (1905) Miss G. . , daughter of a Wexford terrorist, directed many of the tortures which were so extensively practiced (1866) some book of the religious terrorists which tended to infuse the alarm of foul perdition(1805)

Was Hitler and his Nazis a gang of terrorists? even though they were the legitimate government of Germany, originally elected by the people? Were opponents of Hitler terrorists? Esp. Colonel Von Stauffenburg who tried to assassinate Hitler with a bomb in a brief case?

Were the Hutus in Ruanda terrorists when they killed Tutsis although they were the legitimate government? Were the Young Turks terrorists when they victimized the Armenians in 1916? Or were the Armenians terrorists because they were not model citizens? Were (and are) the opponents of British rule in Ireland terrorists? Has the situation changed since partition in 1922?

Is the government of Russia guilty of terrorism against the people of Chechnya (who have as much voting power as other residents of Russia) or are the radical Chechens guilty of terrorism against Russia? Or both? Is the government of Sri Lanka acting like the Jacobins against the Tamils of the north, or are the Tamils a bunch of terrorists to be tamed?

Is the government of Sri Lanka acting like the Jacobins against the Tamils of the north, or are the Tamils a bunch of terrorists to be tamed?

Was the US terrorising people in WACO Texas, or fighting terrorists? Timothy Mc. Veigh thought the former Was General Custer fighting a band of Indian terrorists, or were the Indians fighting an oppression worse than the French had experienced in 1795?

Was Castro a terrorist or a freedom fighter when he opposed the government of Batista? What about those branded by Castro as terrorists to whom the USA has given citizenship?

Is the government of Israel a terrorist government because they follow " the cruel and impolitic maxim of keeping the (Palestinian) people in implicit subjugation by a merciless severity"? Or are the Palestinians all terrorists because they belong to an organization opposing the present government of Israel and its policies and in its early days, aim to drive them into the sea?

Probably both sides are now wrong.

Possible criteria for choosing sides A terrorist is a man with a bomb and no airplane to drop it from (EM Purcell, 1983). The Azeris were bad first (Elena Bonner, 1994) "Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery". Gerry Adams?

One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter. Monachem Begin; terrorist in 1945 PM of Israel 1978, Nobel Peace Prize winner Bourgiba, jailed in Cairo, first President of Tunisia A rebellion is a Revolution that does not succeed (Victor Weisskopf) May 1940, I learned unarmed combat. Was I becoming a terrorist or a freedom fighter?

30 years ago a friend of mine became a terrorist. Then he became a freedom fighter Within 6 months he was a statesman Now he works with the poor. He did not change. He lives in Bangladesh

Step 1 Stop Terrorists being created Thus what are: The root causes of Terrorism? Despair? Basic Evil thinking? Address Grievances EVEN IF YOU DESPISE THE TERRORIST

Step 2. Keeping Terrorists at Arm’s length Resolve major trouble spots before they fester Any Domestic Dispute lasting 50 Years must be addressed Kashmir Israel – Palestine Ireland

Whey do I suggest 50 years? Physicists think million years After 50 years terrorism gets exported. Think where we want to be in 100 years Ignore who did what to whom and when

Event Tree Analysis: step 3 Imagine what a terrorist might do to society and make it hard for him to do it Combating Terrorism and Reducing Accidents are similar . Address the Low Probability High Conseqence Accident: The terrorist will. Technically easy but a myriad of places to intervene A terrorist can switch targets

I will “fight the last war” and make my comments on the World Trade Center In 1991 Herbert Levine (founder of Asbestospray) said that “If a fire breaks out above the 50 th floor (where asbestos stopped) the building will fall down. ”

Pilots would now resist a hijacking Bar cockpit doors Hidden switch to take control of plane to ground or automatic pilot (already suggested)

Few plans for a major fire at WTC? (FEMA report) Insulation not tested for durability Fire and initial impact destroyed all safety mechanisms (Common mode failure should have been foreseen!) Helicopter fire fighters? Protect buildings by cables from towers or balloons?

Inspect the insulation of all buildings over 50 stories high. (expensive but possible; e. g. apply a heat source to steel in one location and compare the temperature - time profile with calculation)

Night Clubs have accidents Night Clubs are terrorist targets Addressing the first is a good cure for the second Always look for emergency exits Every club owner and every performer must be aware of fire danger

Designers of buildings and large facilities must IN FUTURE always perform a risk analysis with especial attention to possible events: with high consequence yet low probability Saboteurs and terrorists will increase the probability

Safer Energy facilities Do not store a lot of fuel in one place near a lot of people in one place. Oil tanks and LNG facilities should be in remote areas. (In 1848 London decided to keep Petroleum products 30 miles from London bridge in Canvey Island) Terrorism and Sabotage already considered for nuclear power.

Cities have been built on Estuaries Hydroelectric dams are upstream. A dam failure (low probability) can have high consequence. If Littleton dam on the Connecticut failed in time of flood it would take out all dams downstream

In 1944 Wing Commander Gibson destroyed a dam in Germany with a 6000 pond bomb in unfavorable circumstances. In 1975 Littleton dam was unguarded and I could drive onto it to unload a bomb

Electricity Distribution Systems are easy to sabotage. A major storm in France cut the system at a few places, and caused major havoc. In 1944 bored US officers shot at insulators on transmission towers and shut off power to the Dartmouth naval base. 20 well placed saboteurs with shot guns could do as much.

Avoiding anthrax scare easy Irradiate all mail at sorting offices (Co 60 or Cs 137) poisoning water supplies? Emergency purification? Mobile water purifiers are simple

We must be prepared for a new disease whether introduced by terrorist or natural causes

Sabotage has always been easy: - Disgruntled Con. Ed. Worker blew up substations - Forest worker set a major fire - Schoolboys synthesized H 2 S to get an afternoon off How much effort should we make for reducing it?

Some terrorists are now educated. Also some act in concert Modern Society is Vulnerable Sabotage and terrorism are unfortunate facts of life. They will be with us until the end of the human race.

Physicists (and economists) like a quantitative approach to decide how much to spend. EPA says $6. 1 million per calculated life. But terrorism is more disturbing and society clearly wants to pay more

We must not let terrorism distort our lives. Other risks are bigger. Car accidents: 45, 000/yr vs. 3, 500 once Drugs destroy society more Security vs. Freedom Our human rights are what makes life worth living.

“If you still want to belong to an organization dedicated to killing Americans, there’s always the tobacco lobby. ” Alex Gregory, Cartoonbank. com