Collaborative Approach to Risk Assessment for Invasive Species

Collaborative Approach to Risk Assessment for Invasive Species Management in Ontario North American Invasive Species Forum Tracey Cooke & Jeremy Downe Invasive Species Centre & Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources & Forestry May 9 th, Savannah

Context: Invasive Species in Ontario 1 Ontario has more invasive species than any other Canadian province or territory. 440 Invasive plants in Southern Ontario 39 Known or potential invasive forest insects 10 Invasive tree diseases 180 Risk Factors: • • • Globalization and trade connections Global travel of residents and visitors Proximity to the Great Lakes Diverse geography Climate Change Non-native and invasive species in the Great Lakes 2

Ontario’s Approach to Managing Invasive Species • Developed to support the establishment of provincial interests and clear objectives that would support cooperation at all levels of government and with partners • Established three primary objectives: • Prevent new invaders from arriving and surviving in Ontario, • To slow, and where possible reverse, the spread of existing invasive species, and • To reduce the harmful impacts of invasive Species • 27 Actions and associated tactics were developed to achieve these objectives Action 7: • Examine provincial legislative and policy framework for Invasive Species Management Action 8: • Support and strengthen existing legislation 3

Invasive Species Act, 2015 • The Act took effect on November 3, 2016 • Established an enabling legislative framework to support prevention, detection, control, and eradication actions by the government, partners and the public • Provides for the regulation of species which are harming or are likely to harm Ontario’s natural environment as well as associated pathways 4

Commitment to Science Based Risk Assessments • Government commitment that regulatory decisions under the Act will be science based. • At a minimum decisions must consider the species presence in Ontario, biological characteristics, risk of harm to the natural environment, dispersal ability and social or economic impacts. • Six Step Process: 1) Screening level ecological assessment 2) Detailed level ecological assessment 3) Identify social and economic impacts 4) Assess overall risk and peer review 5) Regulatory Impact Assessment 6) Public Consultation (may occur earlier in process) 5

Implementation through Collaboration and Partnerships • Invasive Species Centre • Ontario Federation of Angler and Hunters • Ontario Invasive Plant Council • Ducks Unlimited Canada • Nature Conservancy of Canada Collaboration • Federal Provincial Territorial Invasive Aquatic Species Task Force • Conference of Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Governors and Premiers • Canadian Council of Forest Ministers – Forest Pest Working Group 6

Invasive Species Centre A not-for-profit that prevents and reduces the spread of invasive species in Canada and beyond. CONNECT a broad array of stakeholders COMMUNICATE policy and science knowledge CATALYZE invasive species management 7

The First 5 Years Every $1 of funding to ISC leverages >$1 of outside support From 1 funder to 8 funders $4. 3 M invested funding projects $2. 8 M spent delivering inhouse projects Five year revenues of +$8. 3 M From 1 employee to a diverse team of 14 8

In 2015 -2016 Impacts in 2015 -2016 9

Ecological Risk Assessment Peer Review Workshops 10

Risk Assessment Workshops • The ISC – Co-hosted three ecological risk assessment peer review workshops on previously completed documents with the OMNRF: • November 26, 2015: Wels Catfish and Killer Shrimp • March 22, 2016: Water Soldier, Water Chestnut, Hydrilla • August 16, 2016: Brazilian waterweed, Parrot Feather – Convened a panel of subject matter experts was brought together to review completed ecological risk assessments – Provided facilitation services 11

Risk Assessment Workshops • Informed policy to regulate these species under Ontario’s Invasive Species Act 12

Socioeconomic Risk Assessments 13

Socioeconomic Risk Assessments • The ISC completed eight socio-economic risk assessment research reports following OMNRF guidelines • The reports included socio-economic risk assessments of the following species: o o o o Common Yabby European Water Chestnut Hydrilla Stone Moroko Grass Carp Black Carp Silver Carp Bighead Carp 14

Socioeconomic Risk Assessments Examined impact on both market and non-market impacts 15

Summary of Impacts Diagram: European Water Chestnut 16

Socioeconomic Risk Assessments • Informed policy to regulate these species under Ontario’s Invasive Species Act Impact on 13 / 16 species proposed to be regulated as prohibited under Ontario’s Invasive Species Act 17

Risk Analysis: Mountain Pine Beetle 18

Pest Risk Analysis combines Risk Assessment approach with Risk Response and Risk Communications Risk response identifies means to mitigate the risk Risk assessment evaluates the threat and potential impacts of a pest Risk communication ensures transparency and accountability Canadian Council of Forest Ministers Forest Pest Working Group (2015) 19

1. Risk Assessment Nealis and Cooke, 2014 • • • Nealis and Peter, 2008 Latest science and research Up to date projection models Ontario-specific considerations 20

1. Risk Assessment ? Jack Pine Lodgepole Pine 21

1. Risk Assessment Example Considerations Climate Models Infrastructure Forest Structure Industry 22

2. Risk Response Containment Strategy • Aims to slow the rate of spread of mountain pine beetle, and contain its current distribution Spot Eradication Strategy • Developed to respond to an epicentre invasion or single attack cluster of mountain pine beetle. For example, responding to a MPB infestation resulting from human mediated transport Wave Suppression Strategy • Developed to respond to natural spread of mountain pine beetle from its existing range in Canada or the US. In this scenario, one or many attack clusters could exist Risk Mitigation Strategy • Incorporates prevention tactics into long term stand management at the landscape scale 23

2. Risk Response Ontario: Risk Mitigation Strategy Tactic Silviculture Monitoring and detection Preparatory Regulatory Harvesting Incorporate MPB considerations into existing jack pine budworm management Develop systematic monitoring and delimitation program Pathway analysis on long distance trucks Impose firewood inspection stations Risk monitoring o determine mills at risk o tracking pine imports o Firewood hazard assessment Training of staff Hazard analysis team to develop specific implementation plan Identify diagnostics capacity Identify resource needs and capacity (e. g. heli capacity and availability) Examine policies and procedures in place (e. g. fire, aviation) Impose movement restrictions on logs and firewood Regulate MPB under Ontario’s Invasive Species Act Re-direct harvesting Accelerate harvest if invasion in imminent 24

Expert Review Meeting • Expert Review Meeting was held in November 2015 with Mountain Pine Beetle experts from across Canada • Federal government (Natural Resources Canada) • Provincial governments (Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan) • Expert consultants • Reviewed draft Risk Analysis document to ensure accuracy and provided recommendations 25

3. Risk Communication To provide internal direction to the operations component of the organization to implement the response plan. To gain acceptance from senior levels of the organization to implement the response plan and communications plan. To inform or consult with external partners, clients, stakeholders, other governments, First Nations, and the public of the implementation of the response plan. 26

3. Risk Communication Emergency Response Scenario – March 2016 Emergency response “tabletop” exercise was held with MNRF district staff in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario Goals: • Communicate threat of MPB • Assess capacity to respond to a potential MPB introduction • Explore the authorities of the 2016 Ontario Invasive Species Act • Practice response protocols using principles of the Incident Command Structure (ICS) SCIENCE PANEL 27

3. Risk Communication Emergency Response Scenario – March 2016 Invasion Scenario In July 2017, A sawmill operator in Thessalon, Ontario finds larval galleries on a raw red pine log that was harvested in the area. The operator believes that they could have been caused by the mountain pine beetle (MPB). The operator contacts his district MNRF office in Sault Ste. Marie to report the find to the Area Forester. A MNRF insect diagnostician confirms the specimen as MPB. How do you proceed? 28

3. Risk Communication Emergency Response Scenario – March 2016 Outcomes • ICS Emergency Response Structure fitting for invasive species scenarios – Need for a Science Panel in incident command – Roles and responsibilities should be communicated to relevant parties – Should be adaptable depending on invasion scenario – Funding for emergency response efforts should be determined in advance • ICS Emergency Response is not the whole story – Regions at risk should also develop a plan to prevent, mitigate, or prepare for MPB. This fits into a larger “Emergency Management” strategy 29

3. Risk Communication MPB Workshop – March 2017 • Goals: transfer of knowledge and discussion – Morning session invited talks – Afternoon session facilitated discussion • Participants included MNRF and NRCAN scientists and employees, academia, and industry 30

3. Risk Communication MPB Workshop – March 2017 • Invited speakers from BC, AB, and ON: – Socio-economic impacts of MPB in BC – Stand management and harvesting to address MPB impacts and reduce risk – Risk of MPB spread to ON – Climate change in ON – Examination of past invasive forest pests in ON Photo: D. Sidders, NRCAN Photo: H. Nelson, UBC 31

Risk Analysis Next Steps • Refine and update MPB Risk Analysis, as required • Host a secondary Response Exercise, engaging external stakeholders such as forest industry, parks, municipalities, or First Nations • Develop a research plan to address priorities as identified by level of uncertainty and importance in Risk Analysis • Identify what Ontario could be doing now to prepare for wave or spot infestation • Communicate results 32

Risk Assessment Methodology Comparison and Database 33

ISC Projects Risk Assessment Database Methodologies Comparison: • • • General risk and impact categories Ecological, economic, and human health effects Multi-jurisdictional and all-inclusive 34

ISC Projects Risk Assessment Database Risk Assessments: • • • Sorted by environment first, then species name Comprehensiveness of risk assessment completed Organization which completed the risk assessment 35

Developing a new Risk Assessment tool • In 2016 Ontario undertook a project to develop a new approach for quantifying invasion risk that is: • Robust, scientifically defensible, and meets established criteria for effective, detailed-level Risk Assessments. • Applicable across aquatic taxa (fish, plants, invertebrates) • Consistent with/builds upon RA tools currently accepted as standards in other jurisdictions (i. e. , in North America, Europe, and elsewhere) • The first of its kind to fully incorporate and model conditional probabilities (i. e. , Bayesian inference) across all invasion stages 36

Developing a tool for Risk Assessments • • Project Objective: Develop a science-based tool for conducting detailed semi-quantitative risk assessments of aquatic invasive species • Project Description: i) develop a semi-quantitative, science based, detailed level risk assessment tool; ii) test the detailed level risk assessment model for robustness. • • Project Outcome: Developed an Ontario- and AIS-specific questionnaire with standardized answer/uncertainty options, complete with specific guidance/examples Developed corresponding Bayesian Network tool to model conditional probabilities, propagate uncertainty, and derive probability distributions for overall risk of invasion and impacts * Although the initial risk assessment tool was developed primarily for fish, use of the tool across taxa would be beneficial and therefore was considered during the development process. 37

Bayesian Network to Model Invasion Risk assessor’s answers to questionnaire/associated uncertainty = Input Conditional probability functions determine how factors combine and/or influence other factors AND propagate uncertainty Output = Overall risk of invasion and impacts (probability distribution) 38

Developing a new Risk Assessment tool • Status/Next Steps: • Currently assessing the precision of the risk assessment tool and the sensitivity of the tool to different levels of inter-rater variation • Publication of the tool may be sought following the completion of this study • Following testing, MNRF intends to apply this approach for future risk assessments pending modification for various taxonomic groups • Project Leads/Additional information contact: • Sarah Nienhuis and Tim Haxton (tim. haxton@ontario. ca) 39

@forestinvasives FOREST INVASIVES CANADA Online portal for information about the invasive species that threaten Canada’s forests and biodiversity. insects | plants | pathogens WWW. FORESTINVASIVES. CA 40

Individual Membership Program FREE membership program provides up-todate information to educate the public on invasive species issues. Members have access to: q The Invasive Species Centre’s Quarterly Newsletter q Invitations to events and webinars q A Bi-weekly Media Scan @Inv. Sp Invasive Species Centre www. invasivespeciescentre. ca 41