Coincidental indicators 1 Industrial production index FED 2
- Slides: 53
동행 및 후행지수 구성요소 • Coincidental indicators 1) Industrial production index, FED 2) Employee payroll (non-agricultural), BLS 3) Personal income less transfer payments, BEA, NIPA 4) manufacturing and Trade Sales, BEA, NIPA • Lagging indicators 1) Labor cost index/Unit Output in Manufacturing, BEA, FRB 2) Ratio of consumer installment debt to personal income, FRB, BEA 3) Average prime rate charged by banks, FRB 4) Average unemployment duration, BLS 5) Inventories manufacturing and trade to Sales Ratio, BEA 6) Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, FRB 7) Change in CPI for Services, BLS Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Survey of Current Business
소비하락 정체, 투자 감소 지속 * Actual Source: The Conference Board
최근 미국경기 선행 및 동행지수 The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index TM (CEI) for the U. S. declined 0. 2 percent in June, following a 0. 3 percent decline in May, and a 0. 3 percent decline in April. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index. TM (LAG) declined 0. 7 percent in June, following a 0. 4 percent decline in May, and a 0. 9 percent decline in April.
최근월 경기선행지수 변화 추세 Economic Index (Mo. M) 2 1 LEI 0 CEI -1 -2 LAG 1월 2월 3월 4월 5월 6월 (2004=100) 1월 2월 3월 4월 5월 6월 LEI 99. 5 98. 1 99. 0 100. 2 100. 9 CEI 103. 3 102. 5 101. 1 100. 7 100. 3 LAG 113. 9 113. 5 113. 3 112. 5 112. 0 110. 8
과거 경기선행지표 하락세 비교 Peak in LEI Index Level Source: BEA, National Bureau of Economic Research, The Conference Board
동행지수는 하락세…. Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee
CEO의 시각 Note: 그림자 부분은 미국경제의 불황기 Sources: BEA, The Conference Board
사례 1: 금융부문 연체율 부동산 모기지 소비자 금융 2007: 4 2008: 1 2008: 2 2008: 3 2008: 4 2009: 1 주택 3. 02 3. 73 4. 42 5. 25 6. 34 7. 91 상업 2. 74 3. 44 4. 2 4. 75 5. 43 6. 40 전체 2. 88 3. 55 4. 23 4. 91 5. 87 7. 91 신용카드 4. 61 4. 76 4. 89 4. 80 5. 66 6. 50 기타 2. 64 2. 77 2. 82 3. 06 3. 33 3. 53 전체 3. 38 3. 51 3. 58 3. 71 4. 22 4. 70
사례 2: CEO Economic Outlook Survey - 향후 6개월 후~ 1. 기업의 판매량은? 2009 2 Q 2009 1 Q 20084 Q 2008 3 Q 2008 2 Q 증 34% 24 38 67 68 동 20 9 17 25 23 감 46 67 45 7 9 2009 2 Q 2009 1 Q 20084 Q 2008 3 Q 2008 2 Q 증 12% 9 10 39 33 동 37 25 39 52 52 감 51 66 52 10 15 2. 자본지출은?
사례 2: CEO Economic Outlook Survey - 향후 6개월 후~ (CONT) 3. 고용은? 2009 2 Q 2009 1 Q 20084 Q 2008 3 Q 2008 2 Q 증 6% 7 9 29 28 동 45 21 32 39 42 감 49 71 60 32 31 자료: Business Roundtable, 2009년 6월 23일 현재
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