Coal CCS in the energy mix Charbon CSC

Coal & CCS in the energy mix Charbon & CSC dans le bouquet énergétique A. -Tristan Mocilnikar Conseiller expert dans l’économie des filières énergétiques auprès du Délégué Interministériel au Développement Durable Where does coal stand? Development, energy, climate change Meeting organized by France 24 th Sessional Period of the Subsidiary Bodies to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) Solar room Robert-Schuman-Platz 3 53175 Bonn, Germany May, the 20 th, 2006, 1. 00 pm to 2. 45 pm

May the 20 th presentation Ø Energy Demand Ø Climate change issues Ø It is not sustainable Ø Efficient coal and CCS Ø CCS going forward Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 2

Energy Demand

World Primary Energy Demand (IEA Reference Scenario) 18 000 16 000 35% Oil 14 000 Mtoe 12 000 10 000 25% Gas 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 44% 16% 25% 0 1971 22% Coal 11% Other renewables Nuclear 5% 12% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Hydro 2030 IEA forecasts a more than 50 % increase at the 2030 horizon Oil, gas and coal together account for 83% of the growth in energy demand Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org Source: IEA 4

Increase in World Primary Energy Production by Region 6 000 share of total increase (%) 85% 5 000 Mtoe 4 000 59% 3 000 2 000 31% 1 000 10% 12% 3% 0 1971 -2002 OECD Transition economies 2002 -2030 Developing countries Almost all the increase in production to 2030 occurs outside the OECD (source: IEA) Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 5

Meet basics needs 32 million 1, 041 million 39 million 522 million 1. 634 billion people without electricity in developing countries Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 6

Energy demand Needs in 1990 … Consommation par habitant en tep Amérique du Nord 9 Gtoe Australie Japon Russie-PECO Amérique latine Moyen-Orient Afrique Asie du Sud Chine … Europe de l’Ouest Population mondiale, en milliards d’habitants Source : « World Energy Assessment » , UNDP, UNDESA, CME, 2001

Energy demand Amérique du Nord Consommation par habitant en tep … to 2050 Australie Japon …to 20 Gtoe Russie-PECO Amérique latine Moyen-Orient Chine … Europe de l’Ouest Afrique Asie du Sud Population mondiale, en milliards d’habitants

Energy use with GDP growth Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 9

Primary sources of world electricity generation Ø in 2002 : 16, 000 TWh Ø In IEA 2030 reference scenario : 32, 000 TWh – i. e. : + 100 % Ø A DOUBLING OF COAL Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 10

The Impact on Investment 2004 -2030 Total investment: 17 trillion dollars Gas 18% 46% Power Generation 54% T&D Electricity 61% Oil 19% Coal 2% The power sector will need $10 trillion, over 60% of total energy-related investment Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org Source: IEA 11 WEO

4700 new GW to be installed before 2030 Yo be built by 2030 (AIE) Capacity as of 1999 (GW) Inde Chine USA +Canada UE à 15 55 % Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 12

Annual Average U. S. Energy Prices for the Electric Power Sector Dollars per million Btu Nominal Dollars Source: Energy Information AdministrationShort-Term Energy Outlook -- May 2006 Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 13

Power production in USA Source: DOE/EIA 2006 Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 14

Climate change issues

Energy / GHG Emissions in Tg CO 2 eq. 3 x 10 7 N 2 O CH 4 Forestry CO 2 Fossil CO 2 2. 5 2 25 % Energy 1. 5 1 0. 5 0 1900 3 Emissions in Tg CO 2 eq. Annex I x 10 1920 1930 1940 7 1950 Year 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Non-Annex I N 2 O CH 4 Forestry CO 2 Fossil CO 2 2. 5 2 Energy 1. 5 1 0. 5 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 1950 Year 1960 2010 2020 2030 2040 IPCC SRES A 1 B scenario 16

CO 2 emissions world wide 26 Gt of CO 2 in 2005 38 Gt of CO 2 in 2030 (IEA reference scenario) Ø Electricity accounts for 40% of CO 2 emissions related to energy Ø CO 2 emissions in power generation and transport are expected to increase the most Ø Coal = 11, 5 Gt. CO 2 in 2030 ; + 4 Gt. CO 2 Ø Coal is and should remain 2/3 of CO 2 emissions for Power Gen Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 17

CO 2 Emissions Growth 2004 -2030 4 15 2030 12 2004 Pacific 9 Europe Gt 2 6 2030 North America 1 2004 0 China OECD 3 tonnes per capita 3 0 OECD CO 2 emissions growth are about three quarters of Chinese CO 2 rise, but on a per capita basis, OECD emissions will be still two times higher in 2030 Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 18 WEO

It is not sustainable

“This is Not Sustainable!” Source : Claude Mandil, directeur exécutif de l’AIE World Bank Energy Week, Washington, 7 mars 2006 Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 20

Substantial global fossil resources Oil Key: conventional yet to find R/P = 41 yrs unconventional Coal R/P > 200 yrs 2, 000 bnbls Gas R/P = 67 yrs 2, 000 bnboe Source: BP estimates Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 4, 800 bnboe 21

Resources scarcity cannot solve by itself climate change issues Potential Past emissions Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 22

Efficient coal and CCS

Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 24

Mid-term: Investment in coal can deliver efficiency enhancements ~+30% 40 - 45 % 31 - 36 % 25 - 31 % Possible tomorrow Feasible today 50, 150, 300, 600 up to 1000 1950 - 1970 - 1990 - 2010 Unit size in MW > 2010 Source : Euracoal Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 25

Illustrative simulation bases : Future best available clean technology Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org Source : vision paper DIDD 26

Illustrative simulation bases : Future best available clean technology + gas increase switch to 50% nuclear scenario Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org Source : vision paper DIDD 27

Illustrative simulation bases : Future best available clean technology + capture and sequestration (90% rate of success) + gas increase switch to 50% nuclear scenario Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org Source : vision paper DIDD 28

CCS in POLES / LEPII - EPE Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 29

Main conclusions of the global vision paper Ø The full deployment of Ultra Low emission technologies is therefore required, if one want to keep coal running and limit GHG emissions. • Those « ultra low emission » technologies require technologies such as CCS Ø We need to accelerate the deployment of « ultra low emission » coal technologies Ø But, to arrive to such a result, it is necessary to increase efforts in several fields. • Existing technologies at the laboratory stage must be transferred to demonstration phase. • An economic framework must be built in order to make profitable their deployments. • The questions of acceptability & environmental impacts must be addressed (now). Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 30

CCS going forward

Several winning technologies to capture CO 2 Source : ALSTOM Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org Solvents Availabilit y Now Others ? IGCC with capture 20102015 Oxyfiring 20102015 Chemica l Looping 20152020 32

Zero-emission fossil fuels energy system Source : STATOIL Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 33

STORAGE POTENTIAL FOR CO 2 IN SEDIMENTARY BASINS OF THE WORLD Source: J. Bradshaw and T. Dance, 2004: Mapping geological storage prospectivity of CO 2 for the world’s sedimentary basins and regional source to sink matching. Proceedings of the 7 th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Technologies, September 5 -9, 2004, Vancouver, Canada. Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 34

Significant WW R&D programs Ø Most technologies have been tested in labs Ø R&D funding from institutions and companies Ø Demonstration projects (20 to 50 MW) ongoing or under preparation – Vatenfall in Germany, Total in France, Future. Gen project in the USA … Ø International Cooperations – IPCC (2005) special report on CCS – Carbon Storage Leadership Forum (CSLF) – IEA GHG : IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme (Implementing Agreements are open to Non-OECD countries) Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 35

Political level ØG 8 Gleneagles plan of action ØChina Summit (5 th September 2005) : Joint Declaration on Climate Change & Energy ØAsia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 36

Significant European R&D programs Cooperation COACH substantial global fossil resources Inca. CO 2 ACCSEPT Trust Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 37

Many french corporations involved Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 38

A well-known geology with two major sedimentary basins : (1) Bassin Parisien Oil fields : green Gas fields : red Source : Min. EFI/DGEMP/SD 1 Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 39

A well-known geology with two major sedimentary basins : (2) Bassin Aquitain Parentis Lacq Oil fields : green Gas fields : red Source : Min. EFI/DGEMP/SD 1 Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 40

France has a long and successful experience in underground storage Gaz Naturel Concessions en cours : En aquifère En cavités salines En gisements déplétés Demandes de concession En aquifère En cavités salines Autorisations de recherches En aquifère En cavités salines Petit Couronne Gournay/Aronde Gargenville St Clair/Epte St Illiers Trois-Fontaines Germigny-ss- (P) Coulombs Beynes Hydrocarbures liquides : concessions En cavités minées ou mines En cavités salines Donges Chémery-Ouest (P) Céré-La-Ronde Alsace Sud (P) Soings-en-Sologne Sennecey-le-Grand Chémery Etrez Viriat Produits chimiques de base : concessions En cavités salines Hauterives 10 Cerville-Velaine (P) Tersanne Grand-Serre Gm 3 (500 gas storage sites in the world = 164 Gm 3) Manosque I et II Landes de Siougos (P) Izaute Lussagnet Manosque Geosel Lavera Martigues Lavera-Martigues Source : Min. EFI/DGEMP/SD 1 Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 41

Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 42

ANR projects launched in 2005 amines, adsorbates CAP-CO 2 Geocarbone INJECTIVITE CO 2 injection antisublimation CO 2 -SUBLIM chemical looping CLC-MAT Capture & Geocarbone INTEGRITE confinement 8, 3 M€ Transport Trans. CO 2 Geocarbone PICOREF Sites evaluation Geocarbone MONITORING monitoring e g a tor S Geocarbone CARBONATATION Long term behaviour Source : Min. EFI/DGEMP/SD 1 Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 43

ANR 2006 bid on CCS Cinq thèmes : • Captage et transport • Stockage et monitoring, mitigation & vérification • Analyses de risque, critères de sécurité, réglementation • Ruptures technologiques • Evaluation socio- et technico-économique et environnementale, acceptabilité et légitimation sociale. Date limite de soumission des dossiers : 30 juin 2006 à minuit Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 44

Future Demonstration Projects in France “PICOREF” A CCS project supported by the French Network of Oil & Gas Technologies (RTPG): • understanding the CO 2 fate during and after injection • looking for an experimental site in the SE of Paris Basin (Deep saline aquifers or depleted hydrocarbon fields) Courtesy of Gestco project “Lacq” Project announced by Total in Sept 2005 (50 M€) Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org Source : Min. EFI/DGEMP/SD 1 45

CO 2 Storage Operation by Gaz de France SNOVHIT K 12 B (CRUST) Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org RECOPOL (EU) 46

CCS by Total Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 47

IFP and CO 2 Domestic actions Ø The CO 2 Club Ø The PICOREF project European projects Ø CO 2 from capture to storage: IFP as leader of the European CASTOR project Ø IFP on the front line of the European fight against CO 2: FP 5 (RECOPOL, ICBM, SACS, NGCAS, CO 2 NET) and FP 6 (CASTOR, ENCAP) projects Ø Europe in the international CO 2 capture and storage development concert: the INCA-CO 2 project International programs Ø CSLF Ø GHG (IEA) Research projects conducted in partnership with industrialists: JIPs (Joint Industry Projects) Ø JIP WIN CO 2 Ø JIP CO 2 SECURE Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org 48

BRGM involvement in CO 2 projects Ø JOULE II project (1993 -1995) "The underground disposal of carbon dioxide": Ø SACS (Phase 1) (1998 -1999) and SACS 2 (Phase 2) (2000 -2002) Ø GESTCO (2000 -2003) Ø NASCENT (2001 -2003) Ø WEYBURN (2001 -2004) Ø CO 2 STORE (2003 -2006) Ø CO 2 NET (2001 -2002) and CO 2 NET 2 (2003 -2005) Ø SAMCARDS (2002 -2003) Ø PICOR (RTPG Subproject A) (20022004) Ø PICOREF (2005 -2006) Ø CASTOR (2004 -2008) Ø CO 2 GEONET (2004 -2009) Ø In. CA-CO 2 "International Co-ordination Action on CO 2 Capture and Storage" (2004 -2007) Ø ULCOS (Ultra Low CO 2 Steelmaking project) (2004 -2009) Ø ICSFFEM (CO 2 emission reduction in phosphate production) (2002 -2003) Ø SEQMIN (CO 2 sequestration by mineral carbonation) (2004) Ø Pro. CO 2 (Processes for management of industrial CO 2 emissions) (2005° Ø RTPG Subproject B (2004) Ø RTPG Subproject C (2004) Contact : antoine-tristan. mocilnikar@mines. org BRGM stands for Bureau de recherches géologiques et minières 49

Coal & CCS in the energy mix Charbon & CSC dans le bouquet énergétique A. -Tristan Mocilnikar Conseiller expert dans l’économie des filières énergétiques auprès du Délégué Interministériel au Développement Durable Where does coal stand? Development, energy, climate change Meeting organized by France 24 th Sessional Period of the Subsidiary Bodies to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) Solar room Robert-Schuman-Platz 3 53175 Bonn, Germany May, the 20 th, 2006, 1. 00 pm to 2. 45 pm