CMTA Energy Conference Energy Growing Californias Economy Electricity

CMTA Energy Conference Energy: Growing California’s Economy Electricity and Natural Gas Supply, Reserves, and Resource Adequacy William J. Keese California Energy Commission July 29, 2004

An Opening Thought… Remember the Loading Order • Promote energy efficiency • Diversify portfolio with renewable energy • Offer consumers energy choices • Strengthen California’s energy infrastructure 2

Helping the California Economy: An Energy Report Card (Post Crisis) • Energy Efficiency – 5000 MW during crisis – About one-third permanent savings – Demand Response programs being developed • Renewable Energy – Lots of PV – RPS – WREGIS • Consumer choice – No direct access and some exit fees – Core/noncore structure being addressed • California’s Energy Infrastructure – New generation and natural gas infrastructure added. – LNG on the horizon? 3

California Electricity Outlook: Summer 2004 Emergency Response Programs/ Interruptibles Spot Market Imports High Probability Additions- Only counts plants deemed 75% or better chance of being built. Net Firm Imports Existing Generation (reflects adjustments for retiring units and both forced & planned outages) 1 -in-10 Summer Temperature Demand (Hot) 1 -in-2 Summer Temperature Demand (Normal) 4

California Electricity Outlook: 2004 - 2010 70, 000 Emergency Response Programs/ Interruptibles 65, 000 Spot Market Imports Mega. Watts 60, 000 High Probability Additions- Only counts plants deemed 75% or better chance of being built. 55, 000 Net Firm Imports 50, 000 45, 000 Existing Generation (reflects adjustments for retiring units and both forced & planned outages) 40, 000 1 -in-10 Summer Temperature Demand (Hot) 35, 000 1 -in-2 Summer Temperature Demand (Normal) 30, 000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 5

California’s Electricity Outlook: Projected Operating Reserves 6

Power Plant Status Report Over 20, 000 MW approved, but many projects not moving forward… Approved & Operating Approved & Under Construction Approved but No Construction Under Review 7

Resource Adequacy Definition: “A condition in which sufficient generation and transmission resources exist to cover load and satisfy reserve requirements” Outstanding issues: – Tradeable capacity credits – ISO dispatch control over nominated resources 8

California’s Electricity Future… 9

Natural Gas Price Situation (Dollars per MMBtu) • High natural gas prices continue to be a national problem. 6. 50 6. 00 $/MMBtu • California natural gas prices have exceeded $5. 00 per MMBtu for most of this year. 7. 00 5. 50 5. 00 PG&E-Malin So. Cal. Gas Border Average Henry Hub – Main reason: Infrastructure enhancements and efficient use of storage. 10 4 /0 07 /1 6 4 /0 07 /0 /0 8 07 /0 2 07 /1 3 4 4 4 /0 /0 06 /2 9 4 /0 06 /0 /2 1 06 /1 6 06 /2 4 4 4 /0 06 /1 0 4 /0 06 /0 2 06 /0 /2 7 05 /0 7 4 4 4 /0 /0 05 /0 /1 9 05 /1 4 05 /2 4 4 4 /0 /0 /1 1 05 /0 6 05 /0 3 /0 4 4 4. 00 05 • California is actually doing better than the rest of the nation. PG&E-Topock 4. 50

Natural Gas Storage Capacity and Inventories (Billion Cubic Feet) 250 225 200 Billion Cubic Feet 175 150 125 100 75 Capacity 50 Inventories 25 Jun-2004 Apr-2004 Feb-2004 Dec-2003 Oct-2003 July 15, 2004 Beginning of the month levels, unless otherwise indicated California Energy Commission estimate Aug-2003 Jun-2003 Apr-2003 Feb-2003 Dec-2002 Oct-2002 Aug-2002 Jun-2002 Apr-2002 Dec-2001 Oct-2001 Aug-2001 - Feb-2002 Average inventories over the previous 5 years 11

California’s Natural Gas Outlook General Observations • Current supply/infrastructure is adequate…FOR NOW. • Prices are higher than desired, but we are positioned to do better than the rest of the nation. • Demand for natural gas is growing in California despite aggressive energy efficiency programs. • Additional import capacity is needed to meet future demand. 12

California’s Natural Gas Future… 13

So Is State Policy Moving in the Right Direction? ? ? Tradeable Capacity Market Core/Noncore Market Redesign Procurement AB 2006 14

Closing Thought: It All Depends on Your Perspective 15