Climate Service in India A K SRIVASTAVA INDIA

Climate Service in India A K SRIVASTAVA INDIA MET DEPARTMENT. PUNE Ministry of Earth Sciences

Pre requisites of effective climate services Availability of Climate data Existence of Climate monitoring Mechanism Appropriate prediction systems 2

National Data Centre (NDC) IMD was established in 1875 v. National Data Centre was created in 1977. v. The objectives of the NDC are • Data Keying and Verification of Meteorological Data • Data Archival and Supply to Users • Computer Training and Software Support

Data Processing System at NDC v DATA ARCHIVED AT NDC § SURFACE § RAINFALL § UPPER AIR § AUTOGRAPHIC § MARINE § AWS v TOTAL HOLDINGS 290 MILLION RECORDS AS ON DATE v EVERY YEAR ABOUT 2. 5 MILLION RECORDS ARE ADDED TO ARCHIVES v Data supply- On an average 10 Lakh records every month » Revenue Rs 1. 2 Crores/ year

Climate Monitoring Beginning v Computation and publication of normal and its updation. v Publication of upper air wind analysis / Radiation maps(climatology). v Rainfall maps and its probabilistic distribution maps. v Wind rose diagrams etc.

Climate Monitoring (Present) v National Climate Centre at IMD Pune is functioning since 1995. v India specific climate related activities like Climate Monitoring and Analysis. v Subsequently Climate Monitoring over the south Asia

Climate Monitoring and Analysis Prepares and publishes monthly, seasonal and annual climate diagnostic bulletins for Indian region regularly.

Surface v Pressure v. Temperature v. Rainfall v. Time Series of a) rainfall and b) Temperature v% Hot and cold days v. SPI maps 11

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Tx anomaly Tn anomaly 14

Upper Air v Circulation Anomalies v. OLR v. Rotational and divergence field 15

Monthly mean wind and its anomaly at 850, 500 & 250 h. Pa respectively

Monthly mean Stream function and its anomaly at 850 h. Pa Monthly mean Velocity Potential and its anomaly at 250 h. Pa

Outgoing Long Wave Radiation(W/m 2) (CDC/NOAA, USA)

SST Anomaly (0 C)

CPC/IRI CONSENSUS ENSO FORECAST (portal. iri. colombia. edu) 20

Climate data products Ø NCC generates, many climate data products for smaller spatial and temporal scales for the user community. Ø These data products include followings: Daily gridded (1 o X 1 o) rainfall and temperature data Daily gridded(0. 5 o X 0. 5 o and 0. 250 x 0. 250 [long series]) rainfall data These data have been supplied many international research institutes and universities So far more than 600 research paper have been published in peer reviewed journals using these data sets

Climate Prediction CFS 2 FOR SEASONAL PREDICTION APART FROM STATISTICAL SYSTEM DYNAMICAL SYSTEM FOR EXTENDED RANGE (20 DAYS) GFS AND WRF FOR SHORT RANGE USING THE FIRST ONE IMD PUNE (AS RCC) ISSUES GOLBAL FORECASTS AND OUTLOOK FOR THE SOUTH ASIA. ENSO AND IOD FORECASTS ARE ALSO ISSUED 22

Status of Some Important Factors that Having Influence on Monsoon during 2017: ENSO IOD

ENSO Forecast - MMCFS: March IC Plume of Nino 3. 4 PDF Corrected Model Forecast – Mar IC Enso Neutral conditions are likely till mid -2017 with increased probability (>50%) for the development of El Nino from ASO onwards 09 -Sep-20

Indian Ocean Dipole: IMD-IITM CFS IOD forecast: The current neutral conditions are likely to turn to positive IOD conditions during the later part of the monsoon season.

ENSO, IOD, Monsoon Rainfall El Nino Year 1951 1953 1957 1963 1965 1969 1972 1987 1991 1997 2002 2004 2009 2015 2017 El Nino Strength Weak Strong Moderate Strong Weak Strong Moderate Weak Moderate Strong Weak* Phase of IOD Neutral Positive Neutral Neutral positive Positive Neutral Positive* All India Monsoon Rainfall (% of LPA) 81 110 98 98 82 100 76 85 81 91 102 81 86 78 86 ? ? Ø In 4 of the 15 El Nino years, IOD was positive. Ø In 3 of these 4 years, rainfall was normal (96 -104% of LPA) and in one year (1991), it was below normal (90 -96% of LPA). 09 -Sep-20

Prediction systems for other time scales Extended range dynamical forecasting systems (four weeks) Short range dynamical systems (5 days) 27

Service to Agriculture Sector

Why do farmers needs climate services Ready! Seasonal Farmer Early Actions Across Time Scales Set ! • Select cultivars Mid-range • Purchase • Anticipate appropriate wet/dry spells seeds variations in • Choose temperature alternative • Manage risk in livelihoods harvest • Sensitize operations Community • Plant/clear fields • Warn community on hazards Access to relevant Short range climate information • Determine right harvest can empower time farmers to • Decide timing anticipate and of pesticide/fertili confront zers climate related application and • Evade crop risks losses opportunities Go! • Evacuate community

Operational Agrometeorological Services Advisories are issued twice a week

Interpretation of seasonal forecast at district level and organizing state level monsoon preparedness meetings SASCOF – 6

CFS based Grand Ensemble Prediction System (CGEPS) for Extended Range Prediction (for next 20 days) (IITM, Pune) Pentad wise rainfall predicted by MME Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850 h. Pa 09 -Sep-20

Generation of WRF-ARW Forecast with WRFDA Assimilation

Satellite Products used for AAS NDVI maps at State, National and Progress during the week Sowing Suitability of crops Surface Soil Moisture from SMOS Surface soil moisture estimation by passive microwave sensor Surface soil moisture estimation by water balance method

One example of use of advisories on sowing short -duration, less water requiring crops, such as pearl millet and pulses. Crop Situation in Andhra Pradesh (Kharif-2015) District Actual area sown in Kharif (ha) Normal 2015 Original crop in the area 8273 2377 2403 2421 7095 2035 2134 1782 Cotton, Castor, Rice Groundnut 1066 5181 1279 359 1466 327 Cotton, Rice 12380 2069 618 342 Groundnut Rice Pearl millet Kurnool YSR Kadapa Chittoor Anantapur Black gram Guntur Prakasam Kadapa Green gram Anantapur YSR Kadapa

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Need Assessment Survey

Farmers’ feedback Shri Narayan Bhai Chawda (Krishi Pandit), Village–Gomchi, Raipur n Since 1992, I have been getting these weather-based agroadvisories regularly on the evening of every Tuesday and Friday. Although, we have been involved in agriculture since last 30 to 35 years, these agro-advisories are certainly playing very important role in planning our agriculture activities. Vegetables and the cereals are the major crops grown in my agriculture farm.

E-Agromet Bulletin Generation Disseminatio n 1. Abridged Advisories 2. Extreme Weather Warnings

One rain gauge for One village

We are initiating climate services to other user sectors like health and energy sectors shortly 42