Climate Prediction and Application Activities at JAMSTEC Swadhin

Climate Prediction and Application Activities at JAMSTEC Swadhin Behera, Takeshi Doi and Yushi Morioka

Outline • 2015 ENSO and IOD predictions • Teleconnection • Decadal climate variation: predictability of Australian and South African rainfalls • Applications - malaria modeling

SINTEX-F boreal summer climate predictions initiated on 1 May http: //www. jamstec. go. jp/frcgc/research/d 1/iod/index. html

Latest predictions: ENSO and IOD outlooks Predictions Observation/Analysis

Western European Hot Summer Composites

Relationship of the European Dipole Index with Other Climate Modes Behera S. K, J. V. Ratnam, Y. Masumoto and T. Yamagata, (2012) Origin of Extreme Summers in Europe – The Indo-Pacific Connection, Climate Dynamics.

Tropical teleconnection to extreme rainfall events over Europe Ratna et al. 2015, under review

Cross-equatorial teleconnection – links to southern Africa Ratnam et al. 2014

Western Australia

Decadal climate variability in southern Atlantic and Indian Oceans

SLP and SST variability (>8 yr) in 40º-50ºS Eastward propagation: 100º/15 yr = 2 cm/s

Coupled GCM experiments: Control vs. uncoupled South Atlantic Composite of SLP and SST anomalies for several decadal events in the model results.

Decadal predictions with SST-nudging initialization using SINTEX-F 1

A climate-based infectious diseases early warning system (i. DEWS) for southern Africa JAMSTEC-CSIR-SAWS ACCESS & JAMSTECCSIR-SAWS Down scaling Refinement NEKKEN-MRC & WCU Refinement MRC ALL ACCESS: Applied Center for Climate & Earth System Science JAMSTEC: Japan Agency for Marine. Earth Science and Technology MRC: South African Medical Research Council NEKKEN: Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University

VECTRI preliminary results: 2001 -11 mean population proportion with detectable malaria

Crop predictions with the SINTEX-F Concluded SATREPS South Africa project

Limpopo river flow predictions with the SINTEX-F Concluded SATREPS South Africa project