Climate Forecast Applications Institutionalizing Climate Forecast Applications for

Climate Forecast Applications Institutionalizing Climate Forecast Applications for Agriculture

Climate Forecast Applications Institutionalization Sustained operational use of seasonal climate forecasts beyond the life of a project (Hansen, 2002)

Climate Forecast Applications Key components Institutional commitment -Providing forecast information -support for climate forecast application -policies that favour beneficial use Researchers need to understand policy profile and influence the policy to some extent Cooperation between institutions (lateral and vertical interactions) Continuous incorporation of new developments

Climate Forecast Applications Institutionalization process should start evolving during the course of the project itself when other prerequisites are satisfied

Climate Forecast Applications Demonstration of climate forecast application: Pilot sites

Climate Forecast Applications Country wide disaster calendar: Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Jan - Feb: Floods Nov - Mar: Drought Aug - Nov: Typhoons May - Sep: Drought Jul - Aug: Typhoons Sep - Nov: Floods Dec - May: Drought

Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast application experiences: v Indonesia: Ø Set up the National Forecasting Working Group in 1997 composed of BMG (Meteorological and Geophysical Agency), BPPT (Bureau of Assessment and Application of Technology), LAPAN (National Space Center) , Agricultural Research Institute, and Water Resources Management Research Institute Ø The Working Group draws upon forecast information from ASMC (ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Center), IRI (International Research Institute for Climate Prediction), BOM (Bureau of Meteorology Australia), and UKMO (UK Met Office) Ø Prepares seasonal forecast guidance that includes seasonal monsoon onset, and monthly and seasonal cumulative rainfall for 102 climate forecasting regions Ø National user agencies process the outlook with reference to past impacts, for dissemination to provincial sectoral agencies as general alerts Ø Feedback from field user agencies to national agencies happens when a disaster occurs (Strong feedback to ensure subsidies) Ø Information not usable to the level expected for development planning

Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast application experiences: v Philippines: Ø First season ahead forecast issued in Jan 1985; ENSO indices incorporated in seasonal forecasts starting 1987 during 1986 -87 El Niño Ø Established the Drought Early Warning and Monitoring System (now known as National ENSO Early Warning and Monitoring System) in 1987, which provided seasonal forecasts to policy and decision makers, economic planners and emergency managers Ø User departments analyze potential impacts and accordingly prepare contingency plans Ø For example, the Department of Agriculture, on receipt of advisory: o analyzes potential impacts and prepares vulnerability map for the country’s 12 administrative regions o modifies map using inputs from irrigation department, food security agency, and agriculture research institutions o disseminates information to regional/ provincial agriculture offices Ø Need to develop capacities to process information that is usable at the local level

Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast application experiences: v Vietnam: Ø Seasonal forecast based on Eurasian snow cover, ITCZ, etc. Ø Incorporated ENSO information in seasonal forecast only in 2000 Ø Seasonal forecast disseminated to agriculture, water resources and disaster management agencies as general alert Ø Needed to make climate information usable for development planning

Climate Forecast Applications The need: Climate forecast information that: Ø is localized Ø timely Ø in easily understandable language Ø meets end user needs The issues: Ø Capacity to generate the localized information Ø Experience in communicating probabilistic scientific information for practical use by end users

Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast applications : Considerations v Institutionalization of the end-to-end climate information generation and application system v Demonstrates local application of climate information v Provides localized climate information that matches users’ needs

Climate Forecast Applications Methodology: Six step process v Assess user needs and existing capacities of national institutions to meet these needs (need/ capacity assessments) v Assess relevance of latest scientific information to meet these needs (assessment of available technology) v Develop partnerships and enhance capacities of national institutions to generate information (capacity building through partnerships) v Institutional development to communicate information to end users (institutionalization of end-to-end system: pilot demonstrations, replication) v Apply information v Monitor and evaluate applicability of information

Climate Forecast Applications End-to-end climate information generation and application system Providing climate outlook Interpreting global climate outlook into local outlook Translating local climate outlook into impact scenarios Communication of response options/ feedback

Climate Forecast Applications Activities: v Climate outlook: Ø Create a database on climate, ENSO impacts, new forecast tools Ø Develop climate scenario with ENSO indices Ø Generate downscaled climate information products Ø Develop seasonal climate outlook v Translation into impact outlook: Ø Create an agro-climate database Ø Develop climate impact scenarios on critical stages of the crop cycle and impact of pests and diseases on crop production Ø Develop seasonal climate impact outlook

Climate Forecast Applications Activities: v Application: Ø Develop institutional and project partnerships Ø Select demonstration sites Ø Analyze socio-economic / sectoral impacts of climate variability Ø Analyze institutional landscape Ø Analyze policy-decision system interaction Ø Include downscaled climate information into current policy, decision system Ø Evaluate performance of new decision system Ø Formulate policy changes for climate information utilization Ø Uptake policy and decision tools v Replication

Climate Forecast Applications Institutional mechanism: Indonesia BMG IPB Provision of climate outlook Translation of climate outlook into impact outlook Conversion of impact outlook into crop management strategies Indramayu Agriculture Office Directorate of Plant Protection Dissemination of information to farmers and evaluation of farmers response

Climate Forecast Applications Institutional mechanism: Philippines

Climate Forecast Applications Institutional mechanism: Vietnam ASMC IRI NCHMF (HMS) RCFC CRC (IMH) Agriculture Extension (MARD) ARC (IMH) QT HMAC QT Climate Information Application Group Provincial level Hydromet / Agricultural Extension Service District Communes Farmers

Climate Forecast Applications Partnerships with international, local institutions: Indonesia International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) Bureau of Meteorology and Geophysics BAKORNAS BPB (National coordinating agency for disaster management) Directorate of Crop Protection, Ministry of Agriculture Bogor Agricultural University BULOG (National food logistics agency) CARE International in Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics Provincial governments: West Java and Nusa Tenggara Timur Ministry of Regional Infrastructure Office of the Bupati, Indramayu Regency, West Java BPTP (Agency for the Assessment and Application of Agriculture Technology Agriculture and Rural Development Bank Farmers groups

Climate Forecast Applications Partnerships with international, local institutions cont. Philippine PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration National Disaster Coordinating Council Department of Agriculture National Power Corporation Bureau of Agricultural Statistics Dumangas Municipal Government National Irrigation Administration Local NGOs National Water Resources Board Farmers groups Vietnam Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Hydrometeorological Service, Vietnam Agrometeorological Research Center Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development Climate Research Center Quang Tri Department of Science and Environment :

Climate Forecast Applications Forums for climate information providers and users: v National: Ø Seasonal climate forum (national meteorological and hydrological service (NMHS), intermediate users - e. g. agriculture and water resources ministries) Ø Inter- (user) agency committees (NMHS, agriculture and water resources ministries, water regulatory board, dam operators, water concessionaires, hydropower agency) v Sub-national: Provincial working group (provincial meteorological and hydrological station, agriculture and irrigation departments, universities, local government units, NGOs) v Local: Ø Local climate forum (local meteorological and hydrological station, agriculture and irrigation departments, local government unit, local NGOs, farmers’ groups) Ø Field schools (provincial and local meteorological and hydrological station, agriculture extension, farmers)

Climate Forecast Applications Climate field schools: Indonesia (Local level) P 1 -1 Stage 1: training of agricultural extension specialists (district level) P 1 -2 Stage 2: training of agricultural extension workers (sub-district) Farmer Groups Stage 3: training of heads of farmers groups F A R M E R S Stage 4: training of farmers P 1 -2

Climate Forecast Applications Delivery of locally-relevant climate information: Indonesia Indramayu District, West Java, Indonesia Step 1 : Revised climate forecast regions

Step 2: Preparation of forecast maps Climate Forecast Applications Indramayu District, West Java, Indonesia Dry season rainfall, 2003 Onset of dry season 2003

Climate Forecast Applications Step 3: Preparation of forecast response plan Indramayu District, West Java, Indonesia Impact outlook Farmers’ response plan

Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast application: Philippine experience - 2002 -03 v Aug 2002: PAGASA issued the climate outlook for dry season Nov 2002 - Mar 2003, which forecasted rains below normal level v Based on this outlook, provincial agriculture office (PAO) prepared the impact outlook - tail-enders will not receive sufficient water for rice crop v PAO prepared response plan advising farmers to change crops v Most farmers followed the advice and changed their crop v The experience demonstrated the economic value of climate information v The experience convinced end users, local institutions of utility of climate information

Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast application: milestones v Indonesia: Ø BMG now releases forecasts that are relevant to the lead-time requirements of end users Ø BMG have refined the seasonal forecast for Indramayu by establishing 6 forecast regions in place of existing 2 regions Ø Ownership (district head has incorporated CFA as priority activity of district development plan) Ø Counterpart funding (US$ 20, 000) from BMG to support activity in Indramayu Ø National Government plan to streamline IPM field school programme with climate field school

Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast application: milestones v Philippines: Ø Use of dry season 2002 -2003 forecast was used by provincial agriculture office for the first time in preparing impact outlook and advised farmers to change crops Ø Provincial agriculture office proposed to establish a large number of local rainfall monitoring stations Ø Dumangas municipality established local agromet station Ø Local ordinance provides municipal funds to support climate forecast application on a continuous basis

Climate Forecast Applications Climate forecast Institutionalization: prerequisites v Local level demonstration of providing locally relevant climate information on a sustained basis v Involvement of local institutions, with financial/ budgetary commitment v Local institutions advocate for national policy v National policy replicates the program v Capacity building of intermediary institutions to translate and communicate forecasts