CLIMATE CHANGE TOOLS AND METHODS Presentation for EEAS

CLIMATE CHANGE TOOLS AND METHODS Presentation for EEAS / DEVCO desks – Asia / Pacific 17 February 2012 by DEVCO/C/2 Europe. Aid 1

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POLICY AND PROGRAMMING BASIS AGENDA FOR CHANGE Climate Change referred to in context of: o global challenges; exposure to global shocks; o Inclusive and sustainable growth: resilience o Highlights sustainable agriculture and energy sectors PROGRAMMING GUIDELINES (LATEST VERSION) o Main text: Comprehensiveness and coherence o Annexes 1 and 2: Reference to MFF targets; ENV and CC as part of country analysis Europe. Aid 3

INSTRUMENTS PARTNERSHIP INSTRUMENT o Uptake of market based low carbon policy solutions, green economy regulatory frameworks, energy dialogues o Climate diplomacy DRAFT DCI REGULATION o Increasing risk o Programme on Global Public Goods and Challenges (contributing to increasing the integration and mainstreaming) significant funds for ENV and CC [also for energy; FS; human development; migration] Europe. Aid 4

PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS Climate Change has potential to reverse development gains of past decades BUT – CC is not a stand alone “issue” or theme Part of wider [green growth-based] development discussions. Strong and reinforcing links with environment, as well as gender and “governance” DEVCO GOAL Work w/ partner countries to integrate CC [adaptation & mitigation] in their development strategies Europe. Aid 5

CLIMATE CHANGE It’s important to rescue the frog Al Gore - Inconvenient Truth clip Europe. Aid 6

TOOLS AND METHODS DEVELOPMENT – DEVCO [EEAS, CLIMA] • Training • Guidelines POLITICAL – EEAS, CLIMA, DEVCO • Green Diplomacy Network • UNFCCC [RESEARCH]; [PRIVATE SECTOR, NGOs] Europe. Aid 7

TRAINING • Greening Development – why? and how? (The essential sustainability primer) [“compulsory course”] • Greening Development - Specialist Course (for ENV and CC focal points) • Complement to Sector Training. In 2012: Water and Transport/Infrastructure • “Hot Topic” days. 2012: Agriculture and Budget Support • [GCCA Regional Work Shops – very popular. Requests for in country replications… ] Europe. Aid 8

GUIDELINES Existing • Guidelines for Integrating ENV and CC in development cooperation, 2009 (updated with CRA in 2011) • Sector Scripts for Climate Change, 2009 • TOR for Country Environmental Profiles, Strategic Environmental Analyses, Climate Risk Assessments Future • Programming Guidelines (NB! 20% for Climate Related Actions) • Programme and Project Cycle Management Guide (2012) • Guidance Notes for integrating ENV and CC in seven key (7) sectors (2012) Europe. Aid 9

CEP Guidance • Estimation i) vulnerability and ii) capacity to respond to climate change • Policies should be reviewed (e. g. climate-resilient development strategies, national adaptation programmes, low carbon development strategies), • Sources of information may include: Under the UNF 3 C: National Communications, and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). Existing national or sub-regional studies • Availability of Strategic Environmental Assessments (or similar) for the national development plan and/or sectors of interest Look on i. QSG site (previous programming exercise) Europe. Aid 10

KEY TOOLS SPECIFIC 1. Climate Risk Assessments 2. Strategic Environmental Assessments "SEA helps decision makers think through the consequences of their actions" - OECD DAC Chair, 2006 3. Environmental Impact Assessment Europe. Aid 11

SEA / CRA APPLICATION STEPS Programmes, Plans and Policies (CRA - also for projects) i) screening - to determine if an SEA / CRA should be carried out or not ii) scoping - to define key issues for assessment / analysis, iii) the SEA / CRA process (study) itself – needs to be; participative and iterative iv) implementation - including monitoring and evaluation KEY POINTS (SEA) i) sufficient Government ownership and leadership; ii) SEA is focused + Government is accountable for results; iii) Institutional analysis + “champions”; iv) integrate climate change; v) implementation OUTPUTS: Report(s) & CRMP Europe. Aid 12

STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT Steps: 1. Environmental baseline study 2. Identification and evaluation of environment-related risks, constraints and opportunities 3. Identification and evaluation of impacts 4. Identification and evaluation of impacts in terms of vulnerability to climate risks 5. Analysis of performance indicators 6. Assessment of the capacities to address environmental and climate-related challenges 7. Stakeholder engagement Europe. Aid 8. Conclusions and recommendations 13

CLIMATE RISK ANALYSIS Steps: 1. Climate risk baseline study 2. Climate-related risk identification and evaluation 3. Identification and evaluation of opportunities 4. Measures and recommendations in relation to climate -related risks and opportunities 5. Climate Risk Management Plan 6. Conclusions on climate-related risks Europe. Aid 14

SEA of Hydropower development plan for the Vu Gia – Thu Bon River Basin 2006 -2010 (funded by ADB) CC one of 15 key issues to be addressed. Difficult to quantify CC concerns due to lack of data (used what was available); Important CC impacts on the hydrology of the basin identified: i) rainfall intensity and variability; ii) size of extreme flood flows (sediment transport and sand excavation); iii) sea level rise affecting flooding in the seaward parts of the Delta; iv) increases in temperature and higher evapotranspiration leading to lower dry season minimal flows with effects on salinity intrusion. Europe. Aid 15

SEA of Hydropower development plan for the Vu Gia – Thu Bon River Basin 2006 -2010 (funded by ADB) CONCLUSIONS: pace and scale of development was unsustainable level - fundamental principles to enhance the sustainability and equity. One of these principles highlights “safe operations” (operational regimes and institutional arrangements incorporate climate change parameters in design and management) STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS: (i) integrated river basin management; (ii) co-ordinated management and water release programs for the 60 dams considered; (iii) needs for improved data collection on climate related issues Europe. Aid 16

Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities (Manila, Ho Chi Minh City, and Bangkok + Kolkata) – funded by WB KEY FINDINGS • Frequency of extreme events likely to increase. (temperature and precipitation) • Increase in flood-prone area • Increase in population exposed to flooding • Costs of damage likely to be substantial and can range from 2 to 6 % regional GDP. • Damage to buildings (important flood-related costs) • Impact on the poor and vulnerable will be substantial, but even better-off communities will be affected by flooding • Land subsidence major problem Europe. Aid 17

WB: Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities (Manila, Ho Chi Minh City, and Bangkok + Kolkata) – funded by WB RECOMMENDATIONS Better management of urban environment and infrastructure will help manage potential climate-related impacts. Climate-related risks should be considered as an integral part of city and regional planning. Targeted, city-specific solutions combining infrastructure investments, zoning, and ecosystem-based strategies are required. Europe. Aid 18

Sector Script - Energy • How climate change might affect the energy sector • Adapting to climate change in the energy sector • Opportunities for reducing GHG emissions in the energy sector Europe. Aid 19

Sector Script – Energy: Impact Climate change effects/impacts Energy conversion Energy transmission, transport & distribution Increased frequency and/or severity of extreme weather events Damage to infrastructure, disruption of services More irregular stream flows Reduced hydropower generation capacity Lack of water for cooling towers of thermal power plants Higher ambient temperatures Reduced efficiency of thermal power plants Changes in cloud cover Changes in solar power capacity Changes in rainfall and temperature patterns Impacts on productivity of energy crops and fuelwood plantations Socio-economic breakdown, increase in conflicts Damage to infrastructure Thefts Climate-induced migrations Inadequacy of supply and demand Europe. Aid Increased transmission losses 20

Sector Script – Energy: Adaptation Possible adaptation measures Relevance to energy conversion Relevance to energy transmission, transport & distribution Creating backup capacity and “workaround” solutions Increasing the spatial distribution of power generation capacity Opting for more diverse energy mixes Protecting infrastructure against theft and intentional degradation Monitoring trends in migrations and population resettlements Making infrastructure more resilient to extreme climatic events Europe. Aid Relevance to mitigation efforts 21

FINAL MESSAGES WHAT CAN YOU DO? GO FORTH AND BE SUSTAINABLE! -Integrate CC and ENV in country programming / work with partner country (also in context of “green economy”) -Beware of “maladaptation” - Use / refer to SEAs & CRAs -CC not only a constraint but does offer “possibilities” R K Pachauri, Chairman, IPCC (2005): "Climate change: It's here. If we don't react, war, pestilence and famine will follow close behind". Europe. Aid 22

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