Climate Change the UK Response Brian Hoskins Grantham

Climate Change & the UK Response Brian Hoskins Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK

Measured Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Measured Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide • The rise in carbon dioxide is due to our activities, mainly burning of fossil fuels • For every 100 t of CO 2 emitted now, 15 -40 t will remain in the atmosphere in 1000 y • Adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere warms the climate for the next 1000 y • Other GHGs (methane, nitrous oxide, FCs. . ) give the equivalent of 20% more CO 2

CO 2 and Antarctic Temperature in the last 800, 000 years Royal Society-NAS Climate change: evidence & causes, 2014

Global mean temperatures 1880 - Jan-June NASA GISS

Global mean temperatures 1880 - ● 2016 NASA GISS

A warming climate Surface temperature change 1901 -1920 to 1990 -2012 Sept Arctic Sea Ice Area Global average sea level change 19928 4

Projections of globally averaged surface temperature change from 1986 -2005 IPCC 2013 +0. 6 C for change from pre-industrial

Projections of surface temperature change 1986 -2005 to 2081 -2100 for high emission scenario (RCP 8. 5) IPCC 2013

Projections of soil moisture change 1986 -2005 to 2081 -2100 for high emission scenario IPCC AR 5

Projections for other quantities IPCC 2013 Global Ocean surface p. H +0. 2 m for change from 1900

The anthropogenic climate change problem: context • growing world population • need for development • urbanisation • changing diet • increased demand for food, water & energy • other global environmental changes Sustainable Development Goals agreed at UN Sep 2015

The anthropogenic climate change problem: impacts of continued emissions 2 billion people with increased water scarcity 10 -12 billion people/year exposed to heatwaves 70 -90 million people/year affected by river flooding Cooling demands 2 x 50% of plant 60% of cropland species lose > less suitable for half habitat agriculture Many millions impacted by coastal flooding & erosion

The anthropogenic climate change problem: action 1. Adapt 2. Do something else to compensate: a. remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere b. reduce the sun’s energy reaching us (solar radiation management, climate interference or geoengineering) 3. Move towards a drastic reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases: mitigation

1. Adaptation 1. Coping with today’s extremes 2. Planning to cope with possible future extremes Thames Barrier Options and decision points that would enable coping with up to 2 m of sea level rise by 2100

The anthropogenic climate change problem: action 1. Adapt 2. Do something else to compensate: a. remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere b. reduce the sun’s energy reaching us (solar radiation management, climate interference or geoengineering) 3. Move towards a drastic reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases: mitigation

2 a. Removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere Forestation Building with biomass Soil carbon management Coastal habitat restoration Biochar Enhance ocean productivity Enhanced weathering & mineral carbonation Bioenergy with CCU/S Direct air capture

The anthropogenic climate change problem: action 1. Adapt 2. Do something else to compensate: a. remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere b. reduce the sun’s energy reaching us (solar radiation management, climate interference or geoengineering) 3. Move towards a drastic reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases: mitigation

Suggestions for Solar Radiation Management Compensate reduction in heat loss by reduction in solar energy received Actual climate impact; feasibility; other impacts?

The anthropogenic climate change problem: action 1. Adapt 2. Do something else to compensate: a. remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere b. reduce the sun’s energy reaching us (solar radiation management, climate interference or geoengineering) 3. Move towards a drastic reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases: mitigation

3. Mitigation: impacts avoided AVOID project

International Negotiations on Mitigation UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Since 1992 annual Conferences of the Parties (COPs) to discuss actions to prevent “dangerous climate change” Kyoto Protocol (1997, active 2005 for 2008 -12) Copenhagen Accord (2009) Paris (2015) COP 21 Paris Agreement of 196 countries: • Global T rise less than 2°C with 1. 5°C as an aspiration • Voluntary pledges of action by individual nations • 5 -year revision mechanism • Pledge of funding for developing countries 22 April 2016 175 signed Came into force 4 Nov 2016

Greenhouse emission scenarios to 2030 www. climateactiontracker. org/

Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions 1990 -2016

Technology: response to challenge Stephenson’s Rocket 1829 Turner 1844: Rain, steam and speed – The Great Western Railway GB passenger numbers 1830 -1915 Solar PV costs 1990 - date

Two political challenges to those proposing climate change mitigation 1. The proposed measures will ruin our economy Without them, the economy is at risk. The new challenge will lead to new opportunities for growth, growth that can be sustained Saudi Arabia Vision 2030 – end “its addiction to oil” 2. How dare you inhibit the growth of poorer countries? They will tend to be hit the hardest by climate change. New technologies can enable development that is sustainable, but they will need financial and technological help

The UK Climate Change Act Climate change mitigation • 80% reduction by 2050 • 5 year carbon budgets – legally binding • Requirement to develop policies and proposals to meet budgets Preparing for climate change 5 yearly Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) & National Adaptation Plan • Established independent advisory body – Committee on Climate Change (CCC) www. theccc. org. uk

Evidence for the 2017 CCRA produced by the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the CCC 18 Jan 2017 CCRA published by Defra

UK Climate Change Committee: setting 2050 target Two Criteria: • A 50: 50 chance of not getting much above 2ºC • Negligible chance of getting to 4ºC 2016: 4%low 80 4 Gt. CO 2 e 60 50 2016: 4% 40 2016: 3%low 30 2016: 3%high 20 2016: 1. 5% 10 A 1 B 0 2000 2050 2100 Year 2150 2200 °C above pre-industrial 70 3, 5 3 90 th percentile 2, 5 2 central model estimate 1, 5 1 10 th pecentile 0, 5 0 2000 2050 2100 Year 2150 2200 Implications: • Global 50% reduction in CO 2 e emissions by 2050 • About 2. 1 -2. 6 t CO 2 e person globally • UK 80% reduction in CO 2 e emissions by 2050 in UK law

Meeting the Challenge in the UK

The UK Climate Change Act 2008 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Targets 5 th Carbon Budget (2030 57% GHG emissions reduction) accepted by UK Government 30 June 2016

Conclusions of CCC’s 2016 Progress Report Policies needed: Power, buildings, transport, infrastructure, agriculture

Concluding Comments - Global • By adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere we are taking a gamble on the future of life on this planet. • The extent and nature of the risk will continue to be a challenge to science • The technological challenge in limiting climate change is huge but will be stimulating • It is a major challenge to our social economic and political ways of working • Paris provides a great start but success will require imagination, optimism and leadership

Concluding Comments - UK • The 2008 Climate Change Act was world leading • In mitigation (GHG emissions reduction) a good start has been made • In both mitigation and adaptation there is an urgent need for new policies that will put us on track for the next two decades