Climate Change The Other Theories Bruce Peachey P

Climate Change – The Other Theories! Bruce Peachey, P. Eng. September 18, 2003 Petroleum Society of CIM Lloydminster Section

What is Causing the Climate Change? u What is the latest data? • IPCC Science Working Group – Technical Summary u How do theories stack up against the data? • What theories eliminated or reduced? Of the remaining theories which is more strongly supported? u What are the implications? u

Latest Data Indicates u Globally atmospheric GHGs are up. • Large unexplained CO 2 sink in North America reported u Globally average temperatures are higher • Northern Hemisphere higher especially last 10 years • Night-time lows increasing more than day-time highs • More over land than over oceans. Cooling in some areas. u Growing Season – Increase by 1 to 4 days per decade in northern hemisphere

Latest Data Indicates u Precipitation increases (5 -10%) over most land areas in mid to high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere • No observed increase in southern hemisphere • Correlated to increases in clouds and extreme weather. u Heavy precipitation events increased in northern latitudes • Likely a 2 to 4% increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events in last 50 years in Northern Hemisphere

Latest Data Indicates Atmospheric Water Vapour Increased in Northern Hemisphere by several percent per decade u Cloud cover in Northern Hemisphere increased by 2% • Positively correlated with decrease in diurnal u temperature range

Latest Data Indicates u Sea-Ice in Northern Hemisphere decreasing • No trends in Antarctic sea ice apparent. Non-polar glaciers – Widespread retreat except in coastal areas. u El Nino Events – More frequent, persistent and intense over the last 30 years. u Coral bleaching – Increased esp. during El Nino. u No acceleration in sea level rise detected over last century u

Seven Climate Change Views u u u u Warming is Not Happening Real Problem is Waste of Fossil Fuels GHGs Trapping Solar Radiation Energy Use Warming Atmosphere Human Impact Minor or Beneficial Can’t Afford the Solutions Water Emissions - Main Climate Change Driver

Warming Not Happening? Likely High Uncertainty

Waste of Fossil Fuels Should be a real concern. u Even coal wouldn’t last for ever. u A good reason on its own to reduce fossil fuel use. u Much of the use is for status or convenience not need. u Root problem is societal. “Live for today attitude” u

GHG’s Trapping Solar Radiation Should be happening and increasing u Experts can’t agree on how much it contributes u Models force fit to history with scaling factors and adjustments and used to forecast, but still don’t model clouds, landuse or other human factors. u GHG must be global yet much of the data only shows changes in Northern Hemisphere u

Energy Use Warming Atmosphere Total anthropogenic energy generation is about 550 Exa. Joules/yr enough to warm atmosphere 1 degree C per year. u Most energy is turned into heat and reradiated, so would not build up enough. u Some turned into water vapour u • Combustion or from Cooling Towers. u Summary – not a major impact.

Human Impact Minor or Beneficial u Growing evidence that it is not minor and that it has been rapidly growing in the last 30 -50 years. u Cost vs. Benefits tough to balance • More growing days and warmer north • More severe storms, loss of natural habitat • Increases in severity where losses are greatest in people, property or sensitive environments

Can’t Afford the Solutions? Depends on the cost of the problems and on what needs to be solved. u Many energy reductions are very cost effective and have other benefits u Reducing energy use is the most cost effective solution and most likely to reduce human impacts on climate no matter what the major cause is. u

The New Paradigm View It’s The WATER!

Global Water Cycle (km 3 x 103/yr = Tt/yr) Source: Global Warming – The Complete Briefing – John Houghton What is the impact of this! 40 +4 71 111 Land 425 385 Ocean 40 (– 10% due to human water use)

Annual Global Water Withdrawals Source: Scientific American – February 2001 – Peter H. Gleick Original Chart showed cubic miles x 4. 6 to get cubic kilometers

Water Emission Calculations u Energy to Atmosphere • 9000+ x 109 GJ/yr (exajoules/yr) • 15 -20 times human energy use! u Water to Atmosphere (mainly in Northern Hemisphere) • 4, 000 Gt/yr • -10% of Surface flow to oceans • +5% of Land Evaporation

What Goes Up, Must Come Down u Water Added to Atmosphere Must Come Out • 5% of increase in net land evaporation matches 5 -10% increase in precipitation over land • Water added in Northern Hemisphere, comes out in Northern Hemisphere after forming clouds u When water condenses, heat is liberated

The Heat Pipe Effect Day/Night Cycles Water Transport Water added in Hot Dry Areas Water gives Up Heat and Falls In Cold Areas

How Does This Theory Fit the Facts? u Source is anthropogenic and increasing u Should cause increased warming in cold areas but relatively little effect in temperatures elsewhere. u Should cause increased rainfall and increase severity of storms Unusual patterns u Increases night time low temperatures due to day/night cycling as dew point is

Water – Impacts Two thirds of global water use is for irrigation. Almost all in Northern Hemisphere u Most of the rest for industry in same region u Four countries account for half the world’s 670 million acres of irrigated cropland u • Over 60% of the water added doesn’t reach the plants u Also tend to be located near or could

Top Water Emitters from Irrigation Source: Scientific American – February 2001 – Sandra Postel

Feeding El Nino & Arctic Warming? El Nino

Feeding Energy to Melt the Glaciers & Warm/Dry Out the Prairies?

Water – Implications u Improvements in irrigation practices may be more important than GHG reductions • Reduce wasteful irrigation methods; • Select crops that suit the local climate • These changes could be made with a fraction of the expenditures for GHG mitigation. Focus on the Agriculture Industry u Many responses to GHG theory proposed make water situation worse u • Dams, water transfers south, biomass energy, nuclear power

The Balance of Evidence Says. . . u Human Enhanced Water Evaporation SHOULD BE THE major factor in Climate Change Equation u GHG impacts may still be a concern and are an indicator of energy waste so should still be reduced by reducing energy use u Finding the right solutions means addressing the right problem.

Does It Matter Which Theory is Right? u Likely no theory is entirely right. u Best strategy is to find “Robust Solutions” which: • Minimize Water added to atmosphere • Reduce Energy Waste Fossil Fuel Consumption Reduce GHG emissions • Create Wealth (improve standard of living)

New Paradigms? Not Really u Sustainable Development is based on: u Reduce • Waste of energy, water and other resources on trivial wants so they are there when future generations need them. u Reuse – Resources more than once u Recycle – If you can’t do the first two. u Replace – Feel good placebo in last place. Wasting “Renewable” Power is still a waste of resources • Is it really green?

Summary of Our Choices We have the ability to choose our responses u We should make the choices proactively u We should ensure the right actions are taken rather than the politically correct or expedient ones. u u “There is more to life than increasing

Contact Information New Paradigm Engineering Ltd. 10444 - 20 Avenue Edmonton, Alberta Canada T 6 J 5 A 2 tel: 780. 448 -9195 fax: 780. 462. 7297 email: bruce@newparadigm. ab. ca web: www. newparadigm. ab. ca

Extra Slides Bruce Peachey, P. Eng. President, New Paradigm Engineering Ltd.

Global Temperature Increases u u Changes in measurement, motivation & technology, might have caused two step changes upwards in temperatures 1800 - 1920 best global readings would be near water - No demand for accuracy, just how does it feel (how hot and how cold) Three temperature scales in use Reaumer close to Centigrade • (0 o. R= 0 o. C; 80 o. R= 100 o. C so Reaumer gives lower readings) • Was there confusion between units in early records?

Global Temperature Increases u u u Step 1 - 1917 recognized that tropical and arctic air masses exist and mapping movement of the fronts allows better weather forecasts. Focus on humidity and accurate temperatures Awareness of wet-bulb/dry-bulb grows. • Before this did people care if thermometer was wet? • Wet thermometers give lower average readings u u Link to airports inland instead of seaports on the coast. Standardization of procedures, temperature scales, and higher frequency of readings.

Global Temperature Increases u Step 2 - 1980 -90 Transition to digital temperature measurement. Truncated readings have a systemic impact. • “Cooling” in N. A. when Canada went metric? Increase in negative offset.

Historical Climate Data - Wyoming

Historical Climate Data - Tennessee

Alberta Overall Carbon Balance Alberta Carbon Inventory All Sources = 300, 000+ Mt (? ) Natural Gas Exports = 62 Mt/yr Agri & Wood Exports = 6 Mt/yr Petroleum Exports = 79 Mt/yr Coal Exports = 11 Mt/yr Net to Atmosphere Petro-Chemicals Exports = 31 Mt/yr = 7 Mt/yr Alberta can continue to supply for 1500 years based on total car But only 50 years based on economic reserves!

What does Ice Core Data Say? u Ice core data from Vostok and Sipple sites does indicate: • CO 2 and CH 4 levels in the atmosphere tend to vary with temperature. • Increases in CO 2/CH 4 are in step with or lag by ~1000 yrs the temperature increase. • Decreases in CO 2/CH 4 lag behind on set of glaciation u Concentrations measured are not comparable to direct atmospheric measurement • Ice is not inert with respect to CO 2/CH 4 which it can absorb or adsorb • Air had to move for years through meters of snow and ice before it was trapped in a bubble. • CO 2/CH 4 can form hydrates in the bubbles or in deep snow or ice u Conclusion – Ice cores indicate trends in concentration, but measurements do not indicate absolute atmospheric concentrations.

The Case of the “Missing Carbon” The Facts u Global Carbon Emissions: • Emissions fossil fuel and cement = 5. 4 Gt/yr • Deforestation & land-use = 0. 5 -2. 5 Gt/yr u Carbon Accumulation in Atmosphere: • u Calculated increase = 3. 4 Gt/yr Remainder (2 -4 Gt/yr) is Missing! • Unexplained sink of CO 2 in the northern hemisphere u Are we already sequestering carbon? • Do we get credits for it?

The Textbook Carbon Cycle Atmosphere 700 Gt 100 Gt Oceans 39, 100 Gt Combustion 5 Gt 113 Gt Combustion. 5 to 2 Gt Fossil Fuels & Shale 19, 300 Gt Vegetation & Humus 1, 760 Gt Source: “Introduction to Environmental Science”

Reality is More Complicated Atmosphere 700 Gt +/-? 100 Gt (-. 4 Gt? ) Combustion 5 Gt Homes/Landfills etc. 113 Gt Combustion. 5 to 2 Gt +/-? 0. 6 Gt Sewers 1 -1. 5 Gt “Fossil” Fuels & Shale Oceans Vegetation & 19, 300 Gt 39, 100 Gt Humus ? Gt subducted sediments 1, 760 Gt ? Gt subsea seeps ? Gt Sedimentation and formation of carbonates

Compare the Numbers u u Fossil Fuel Combustion Energy to Atmosphere u u • 9000+ x 109 GJ/yr • 9000+ EJ/yr (exajoules) • Keeps on giving until it reaches the ocean! • 500 - 750 x GJ/yr • 500 – 750 EJ/yr (exajoules) • Mainly a one shot deal as energy radiated 109 u Water to Atmosphere u Carbon to Atmosphere • 3. 4 Gt/yr - Net Measured from all sources. (What portion is due to combustion? ) Water to Atmosphere • 4, 000 Gt/yr • -10% of Surface flow to oceans • +5% of Land Evaporation • 7. 5 – 10 Gt/yr • 1 t CH 4 2 t H 2 O • 1 t Oil 1 t H 2 O u Water Losses (2/3 irrigation) Energy to Atmosphere u Carbon to Atmosphere • Unknown (+/-) due to plant growth vs. decay in new agricultural areas under

Northern Hemisphere Mid-Latitude Water Vapour Concentrations 1981 -1994 Oltmans and Hoffman, Nature, 375 (1995) Altitude (km) Conc (ppm) Avg Annual Increase (%) 10 -12 59. 2 1. 03 12 -14 11. 88 0. 49 14 -16 4. 66 0. 54 16 -18 3. 87 0. 73 18 -20 3. 85 0. 84 20 -22 4. 07 0. 54 22 -24 4. 21 0. 38 24 -26 4. 29 0. 34