Climate Change The Move to Action AOSS 480

Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301 -526 -8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich. edu http: //aoss. engin. umich. edu/people/rbrood Winter 2012 April 17, 2012

The Current Climate (Released Monthly) • Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center. – http: //www. ncdc. noaa. gov/oa/ncdc. html • State of the Climate: Global • Interesting new document? – OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction

What is in this lecture? • A story on climate change science to a group of professionals who want to think about investing themselves or money into climate change. – I don’t plan to give all of this lecture. • Thinking about the class, what learned, effectiveness, the future …

We the People • Tim Flannery, The Future Eaters, – Humans are a species prone to ruining ecosystems and destroying their own futures

I want to talk about the class and future • Strong evidence • Predictions are unique opportunity • Ambiguity – – No simply structured solutions Many competing issues Many competing uncertainties Indirect relation between cause and effect • Existing resources are enormous • It is how we use these resources this knowledge.

I want to talk about the class and future • What did you learn? • Effectiveness of – Lecture – Readings – Discussion classes – Projects • How would you change class? – I am thinking radical revision

Start of Lecture Material

Starting point: Scientific foundation (1) • The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on fundamental principles of the conservation of energy, momentum, and mass. • The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on an enormous and diverse number of observations.

Starting point: A fundamental conclusion • Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we observe that with virtual certainty: – The average global temperature of the Earth’s surface has increased due to the addition of gases into the atmosphere that hold heat close to the surface. (Greenhouse gases) – Primary gases added to the atmosphere: • Carbon Dioxide, Nitrous Oxide, Methane, CFCs – Primary natural greenhouse gases: • Water, Carbon Dioxide

Starting point: A fundamental conclusion • Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we predict with virtual certainty: – The average global temperature of the Earth’s surface will continue to rise because of the continued increase of gases that hold heat close to the surface. – Historically stable masses of ice on land will melt. – Sea level will rise. – The weather will change. • This is unprecedented opportunity.

Some useful similes? • Greenhouse gas increase in the atmosphere is like adding blankets to the surface of the Earth. • Adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere is like closing a window that has been cracked open to help cool an overheated room. • Model projections are like a telescope looking at deep space, we are constantly improving the focus.

The basic science-based knowledge • The mechanism of greenhouse gas warming is well known and has, conceptually, been known for about 2 centuries. • The calculations of heating due to carbon dioxide can be calculated with great accuracy.

Outline • Coherent and Convergent Evidence of Warming – Just temperature – Broader Impacts • • • Fingerprinting to attribute warming The whole problem in three slides What about impacts? And Integrated impacts? Climate Case Studies Summary and Commentary Elements of Political Argument (Appendix)

Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO 2) Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas Data and more information

Correlated behavior of different parameters Fig. 2. 5. (State of Climate 2009) Time series from a range of indicators that would be expected to correlate strongly with the surface record. Note that stratospheric cooling is an expected consequence of greenhouse gas increases. A version of this figure with full references is available at http: //www. ncdc. noaa. gov/bams-state-of-theclimate/2009. php.

Global Annual Average Differences from 20 th Century Mean Rood: Just Temperature

Global August Average Differences from 20 th Century Mean Rood: Just Temperature

Highs versus Lows Rood: Just Temperature

Length of Growing Season From Ranga B. Myneni, Boston University

NOAA BAMS SOTC 2010

IPCC 2007: The last ~100 years

What parameters/events do we care about? • Temperature • Water – Precipitation – Evaporation – Humidity • Droughts • Floods • Extreme Weather • Air Composition – Air quality – Aerosols – Carbon dioxide • Winds • Clouds / Sunlight The impact of climate change is Water for Ecosystems Water for People Water for Energy Water for Physical Climate

Outline • Coherent and Convergent Evidence of Warming – Just temperature – Broader Impacts • • • Fingerprinting to attribute warming The whole problem in three slides What about impacts? And Integrated impacts? Climate Case Studies Summary and Commentary Elements of Political Argument (Appendix)

Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100 2071 -2100 temperatures relative to 1961 -1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B 2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC 2001

Observed Global Temperature Differences (1951 – 2011) – (1951 -1980) from GISS

Remember the simile • If I put blankets on the surface, then it has to get a little bit cooler at some distance above the surface.

Correlated behavior of different parameters Fig. 2. 5. (State of Climate 2009) Time series from a range of indicators that would be expected to correlate strongly with the surface record. Note that stratospheric cooling is an expected consequence of greenhouse gas increases. A version of this figure with full references is available at http: //www. ncdc. noaa. gov/bams-state-of-theclimate/2009. php.

Attribution: Fingerprinting • If you use the basic science of – – – Warming due to greenhouse gases Warming due to changes in the Sun Warming due to changes in ozone Warming due to changes in aerosols Warming due to changes in volcanic activity Warming due to changes in ocean-atmosphere-land • They each have a different pattern or fingerprint. • Using this approach far less than 1% chance of an alternative explanation of warming.

Outline • Coherent and Convergent Evidence of Warming – Just temperature – Broader Impacts • • • Fingerprinting to attribute warming The whole problem in three slides What about impacts? And Integrated impacts? Climate Case Studies Summary and Commentary Elements of Political Argument (Appendix)

Summary Points: Science Correlated Observations CO 2 and Temperature Observed to be strongly related on long time scales (> 100 years) CO 2 and Temperature not Observed to be strongly related on short time scales (< 10 years) Theory / Empirical Evidence CO 2 and Water Vapor Hold Heat Near Surface Theory / Conservation Principle Mass and Energy Budgets Concept of “Forcing” Observations CO 2 is Increasing due to Burning Fossil Fuels Land Use / Land Change Other Greenhouse Gases Aerosols Internal Variability Validation Prediction Earth Will Warm Attribution Consequences Feedbacks Air Quality “Abrupt” Climate Change

IPCC projections for the next 100 years. Averaging Time Span Size of Projected Differences Size of Observed Differences

An integrated picture? ECONOMIC ANALYSIS CLIMATE SCIENCE KNOWLEDGE ENERGY IMPACTS LAW CONSUMPTION POPULATION UNCERTAINTY Fragmented Policy INTEGRATED IIMPACTS PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE ?

Outline • Coherent and Convergent Evidence of Warming – Just temperature – Broader Impacts • • • Fingerprinting to attribute warming The whole problem in three slides What about impacts? And Integrated impacts? Climate Case Studies Summary and Commentary Elements of Political Argument (Appendix)

Thinking about the problem: Uncertainty • Thinking about uncertainty: – On time lengths of 10 s of years, our ability to represent the oceanic variability, for example, drives the problem. – On time lengths of 50 years, what we call “model uncertainty” drives the problem. – On time lengths of 100 years, what we call “scenario uncertainty” drives the problem. – On time lengths of 1000 s of years, things like the interaction of ice-ocean-land-air drive the problem.

IPCC projections for the next 100 years.

Thinking about the problem: Uncertainty • There a lot of uncertainties – but – That the Earth will warm and sea level will rise is of little doubt. • The predictions have been quite stable for more than 20 years. – On regional and local scales, the specifics of how will temperature and rain change in my back yard are difficult to know. – On regional and local scales, expert interpretation and guidance can help a lot.

How to use the information • Are the underlying regional and local mechanisms of heat and water transport represented? • Are model projections consistent with these mechanisms? • Do the observations provide an emerging signal consistent with projections and mechanisms? Mc. Kenney et al. , 2011, Global Change Biology

What most worry about • • Storage of water in snow and ice Changes in extreme weather Sea level rise Abrupt climate change

Storage of water in snow and ice • For example Barnett et al. , 2005: Impact Warming Water Resources in Snow Dominated Regions “With more than one-sixth of the Earth’s population relying on glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their water supply, the consequences of these hydrological changes for future water availability—predicted with high confidence and already diagnosed in some regions—are likely to be severe. ”

Changes in extreme weather Link

Changes in extreme weather • Convincing trends in precipitation that comes in most intense events. • Floods, droughts, and heat waves – evolving in a warming world • Hurricanes? • Tornadoes?

Projected Sea Level Rise for end of 21 st Century Thanks to Jim Mc. Carthy Rahmstorf 2010

Sea Level Rise “On the basis of calculations presented here, we suggest that an improved estimate of the range of sea level rise to 2100 including increased ice dynamics lies between 0. 8 and 2. 0 meters [31 – 78 inches]. ” Pfeffer et al. 2008 Thanks to Jim Mc. Carthy

Sea level rise is NOT constant (The earth is not round. ) Thanks to Jeremy Bassis

Abrupt Climate Change • Lot’s of evidence of significant shifts over decades to centuries. – Internal dynamics of ocean-ice-landatmosphere – Volcanoes • We have developed our society in a period of stable and “temperate” climate. – “Warm” cycle of the ice ages

Outline • Coherent and Convergent Evidence of Warming – Just temperature – Broader Impacts • • • Fingerprinting to attribute warming The whole problem in three slides What about impacts? And Integrated impacts? Climate Case Studies Summary and Commentary Elements of Political Argument (Appendix)

Climate Case Studies? • Thames Barriers // Adaptation in the U. K. • Pakistan floods 2010 and 2011 • Russian heat wave and drought 2010 – The Arab Spring • The 2011 Japanese earthquake • The Texas drought Markets, Commodities, Energy

Outline • Coherent and Convergent Evidence of Warming – Just temperature – Broader Impacts • • • Fingerprinting to attribute warming The whole problem in three slides What about impacts? And Integrated impacts? Climate Case Studies Summary and Commentary Elements of Political Argument (Appendix)

Some Points • Science-based conclusions – The surface of the Earth has warmed and this warming is consistent with increasing greenhouse gases. CO 2 is most important. – The Earth will continue to warm. – The concept of “stabilization” of CO 2 is challenged by the consideration of ocean-land-atmosphere time scales • Carbon dioxide does not go away • Accumulated carbon dioxide is important • 1 trillion tons 440 ppm

We arrive at levels of granularity WEALTH Need to introduce spatial scales as well Sandvik: Wealth and Climate Change LOCAL TEMPORAL NEAR-TERM LONG-TERM GLOBAL SPATIAL Small scales inform large scales. Large scales inform small scales.

What is short-term and long-term? Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, . . . LONG SHORT Election time scales ENERGY SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMY 0 years 25 years There are short-term issues important to climate change. 50 years 75 years 100 years

Some Points • Analysis and Opinion – Probability of stabilizing at less than 440, 560 … ppm is very small. • If we decide to stabilize, then we need to figure out how to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere. – U. S. and Europe have lost any policy opportunity to develop consensus-based international policy. – Continued discrediting of climate science and science in general in political arguments is putting U. S. at technological and innovational disadvantages.

Fossil Fuel Emission (Pg. Cy-1) Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios 10 9 Observed Projected A 1 B Models Average A 1 FI Models Average A 1 T Models Average A 2 Models Average 8 B 1 Models Average B 2 Models Average 7 Full range of IPCC individual scenarios used for climate projections 6 5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Time (y) Updated from Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; International Monetary Fund 2010 Thanks to Jim Mc. Carthy

Transport of Embodied Emissions CO 2 emissions (Pg. C y-1) 5 55% 5 Annex B 4 Annex B 2 4 Developed Nations 45% 3 Developing Nations Non-Annex Developed Nations 3 25% of growth 2 Developing Nations Non-Annex B 1990 2000 Local Emissions B 2010 1990 2000 2010 Local + Imported Product Emissions Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Peters & Hetwich 2009; Peters et al. 2008; Weber et al 2008; Guan et al. 2008; CDIAC 2009 Thanks to Jim Mc. Carthy

Some Points • Analysis and Opinion – We need to start to plan for a world that is on average, warmer than the 2 degrees C that we have deemed as the threshold of “dangerous”. – We have an enormous opportunity provided by predictions of climate change. We have the choice of whether or not to take advantage of this opportunity on personal, professional, local, national, and international levels. • The world 4 degrees warmer: January 13, 2011 issue of The Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society

Some References for the Interested • Rood – Rood Climate Change Class • Reference list from course – Rood Blog Data Base • Lemos and Rood (2010) • Koshland Science Museum: Global Warming • IPCC – IPCC (2007) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers – IPCC (2007) Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers • Osborn et al. , The Spatial Extent of 20 th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841 -844, 2006

Reference Material: National Security and Intelligence • 2007: National Security and Climate Change, Retired Generals and Admirals • 2009: National Security Energy and Climate, Retired Generals and Admirals • 2008: Testimony to Intelligence Committee • 2008: National Intelligence Council Assessment • 2010: Quadrennial Defense Review • 2012: Security and Water Resources

Some Basic References • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – IPCC (2007) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers • Spencer Weart: The Discovery of Global Warming • Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect: http: //www. aip. org/history/climate/co 2. htm • Simple climate models http: //www. aip. org/history/climate/simple. htm • Paul Edwards: A Vast Machine • Rood – Rood Climate Change Class • Reference list from course – Rood Blog Data Base Naomi Oreskes, Why Global Warming Scientists are Not Wrong

Elements of the Political Argument • APPENDIX

PA 1: Just a Theory • A common statement is that greenhouse gas is just a theory, equating theory with conjecture. – Theory is not conjecture, it is testable. • Theory suggests some amount of cause and effect – a physical system, governed by quantitative conservation equations. – Theory is not fact, it can and will change. – Need to consider the uncertainty, and the plausibility that theory might be wrong. • Often it is stated in this discussion that gravity is only a theory. – True, and theory of gravity is a very useful theory, one put forth by Newton. – True, we don’t exactly understand the true nature of the force of gravity, there are “why” questions. – Formally, Newton’s theory of gravity is incorrect – that’s what Einstein did. • Still, it is a very useful and very accurate theory, that allows us, for example, to always fall down and never fall up – and go to the Moon with some confidence.

PA 2: Greenhouse Effect • This is generally not a strongly argued point. Warming of the surface due to greenhouse gases make the planet habitable. – Habitable? Water exists in all three phases? • Water and carbon dioxide and methane are most important natural greenhouse gases. • Often a point of argument that water is the “dominant” gas, so traces of CO 2 cannot be important. – Water is dominant … often said 2/3 rds of warming. Because there is so much water in the ocean, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is largely determined by temperature. (The relative humidity. ) – This is where it is important to remember the idea of balance, the climate is in balance, and it is differences from this balance which we have co-evolved with that are important. • Burning fossil fuels is taking us away from this balance. It is like opening or closing a crack in the window … it makes a big difference.

PA 3: What happens to this CO 2 • A “new” political argument: CO 2 from fossil fuels is small compared to what comes from trees and ocean. True. But a lot goes into trees and oceans as well. So it is the excess CO 2, the CO 2 on the margin that comes from fossil fuel burning. Not all of this goes into the trees and oceans, and it accumulates in the atmosphere. • There are 8. 6 Petagrams C per year emitted – 3. 5 Pg C stay in atmosphere – 2. 3 Pg C go into the ocean – 3. 0 Pg C go into the terrestrial ecosystems • Terrestrial ecosystems sink needs far better quantification – Lal, Carbon Sequestration, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc 2008 • It’s a counting problem! One of our easier ones.

PA 4: Cycles • Some say that there are cycles, they are natural, they are inevitable, they show that human have no influence. – Cycles? yes natural? Yes • Inevitable There are forces beyond our control – We can determine what causes cycle; they are not supernatural • Greenhouse gases change • “Life” is involved ocean and land biology • Humans are life This is the time humans release CO 2

PA 4: Cycles CO 2 and T • At the turn around of the ice ages, temperature starts to go up before CO 2; hence, T increase is unrelated to CO 2 – Need to think about time and balance here … • There are sources of T and CO 2 variability other than the radiative greenhouse gas effect. – If CO 2 increases in the atmosphere, there will be enhanced surface warming, but is the increase large enough to change temperature beyond other sources of variability? – If T increases, there could be CO 2 increases associated with, for instance, release from solution in the ocean – CO 2 increases could come from burning fossil fuels, massive die off of trees, volcanoes have to count, know the balance.

PA 4: Cycles: Ice Ages • In 1975 scientists were predicting an ice age. Now warming. You have no credibility, why should we believe you now. – In 1975, small number of papers got a lot of press attention. – 2010 Think scientific method • Observations, observations • Improved theory, predictions, cause and effect • Results reproduced my many investigators, using many independent sources of observations • Consistency of theory, prediction, and observations • Probability of alternative description is very small.

PA 5: The last 1000 years: The hockey stick Surface temperature and CO 2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior. q Medieval warm period q “Little ice age” q Temperature starts to follow CO 2 as CO 2 increases beyond approximately 300 ppm, the value seen in the previous graph as the upper range of variability in the past 350, 000 years.

PA 5: Hockey Stick • This is the “hockey stick” figure and it is very controversial. Quality of data, presentation, manipulation, messaging. – Rood blog – Nature on Hockey Stick Controversy • There are some issues with data, messaging, emotions of scientists here, but the data are, fundamentally, correct.

PA 5: Hockey Stick: Science • But place the surface temperature record of the hockey stick in context using the scientific method. – Reproduction of results by independent researchers, through independent analyses – Verification of results in other types of observations sea level rise, ocean heat content, earlier start of spring – Consistency of signals with theory upper tropospheric cooling – Evaluation of alternative hypotheses

PA 5: Hockey Stick: Temperature source • There has developed a discussion between those who believe in surface temperature data and those who believe in satellite data. – Scientifically, it should not be a matter of belief, but validation. Each system has strengths and weaknesses. Differences should be reconciled, not held as proof of one over the other. • Surface: Issues of how sited, representative, urban heat island – If ignored (wrong), then data flawed – If taken into account (right), then data are manipulted • Satellite data objective and accurate? – Read the literature! Took years to get useful temperature. Every satellite is different, calibrated with non-satellite data • And ultimately: Scientific method – Reproduction of results by independent researchers, through independent analyses – Verification of results in other types of observations – Consistency of signals with theory – Evaluation of alternative hypotheses